600
FXUS66 KOTX 041743
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1043 AM PDT SAT OCT 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY IN
CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTH IDAHO.
- DRY SUNDAY ONWARD WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND 30S.
- PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS AND AREAS OF FROST. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS FRIDAY SHIFTING NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: BREEZY WINDS IN THE CASCADE GAPS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE WINDS WILL STAY
ELEVATED IN THE HIGHER BENCHES OF THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH UNTIL SUNRISE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY IN FAR NORTHERN BC WILL RACE SOUTH TOWARD WASHINGTON
IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY, BRINGING
SOME SHOWER CHANCES (20-50%) TO THE CASCADE CREST, NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON, AND NORTH IDAHO. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT
LESS THAN 0.1". WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST, FLOW
WILL SLOWLY TURN NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. NORTH-SOUTH
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE THREAT OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO
THE OKANOGAN VALLEY, COLUMBIA BASIN, AND PURCELL TRENCH. THERE
IS A 60-90% CHANCE FOR THE OKANOGAN VALLEY AND COLUMBIA BASIN TO
SEE WIND GUSTS EXCEED 30 MPH AND A 20-40% CHANCE TO EXCEED 40
MPH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE WIND GUSTS IN THE PURCELL
TRENCH WILL NOT BE AS STRONG BUT LOCATIONS SUCH AS SANDPOINT AND
COEUR D'ALENE WILL GUST AROUND 20-30 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH A
DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS IN PLACE, PWAT ANOMALIES WILL DROP
TO AROUND 60-80% OF NORMAL SATURDAY EVENING. SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS (REPUBLIC, COLVILLE, PRIEST RIVER, DEER PARK) MAY SEE
THEIR FIRST FREEZE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THEY ARE SHELTERED FROM THE
WINDS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS
PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 60S. WITH LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS, THE FROST AND FREEZE RISK EXPANDS TO LOCATIONS
OUTSIDE OF SHELTERED VALLEYS. FOR THE SHELTERED VALLEYS, THIS
WILL BE A HARDER FREEZE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THE COLUMBIA
BASIN WILL BE VULNERABLE TO FROST DEVELOPMENT AS WELL SUNDAY
NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WA COAST WILL
START TO MOVE INLAND AND FLATTEN. THIS WILL BRING MILD CONDITIONS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S, FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS, AND SUNNY SKIES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST STARTS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY
TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE STARTS TO DEEPEN IN SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. 56%
OF THE 100 MEMBER GLOBAL ENSEMBLE DEVELOP AND RETROGRADE THIS TROUGH
INTO THE PACIFIC, BRINGING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE INLAND
NORTHWEST, FAVORING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. 23% OF THE 100 MEMBER
ENSEMBLE BRINGS THE TROUGH OVER THE INW, FAVORING COOLER AND SHOWERY
CONDITONS. THE REMAINING 21% KEEP THE TROUGH RIDING THE PACIFIC
COAST WHICH WOULD ALSO FAVOR COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS. WE'LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS AND PROVIDE MORE DETAILS AS THEY
BECOME AVAILABLE. /DB
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN
NORTHERLY WINDS FUNNELING DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY AND INTO
KEAT/KMWH/KOMK. THE TIMING FOR THESE WINDS WILL BE 00-06Z. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS IN KCOE BUT CURRENT CAMS
ARE ONLY SHOWING A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF GUSTS NEAR 20-25 KTS, SO
WILL NEED TO SEE IF CONFIDENCE IMPROVES BY 00Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR
BREEZY NORTH WINDS IN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY TO THE MOSES LAKE AREA
PEAKING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 66 39 61 35 64 39 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 63 42 61 38 65 40 / 20 20 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 61 35 60 33 65 36 / 20 20 10 0 0 0
LEWISTON 66 45 65 42 67 43 / 20 20 10 0 0 0
COLVILLE 66 28 61 26 64 28 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 61 41 59 36 62 40 / 40 40 10 0 0 0
KELLOGG 59 41 58 38 64 41 / 50 50 20 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 69 43 66 35 67 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 66 42 64 43 66 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 67 41 64 41 67 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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