185
FXUS66 KOTX 050618
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1118 PM PDT SAT OCT 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY IN
CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTH IDAHO.
- DRY SUNDAY ONWARD WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND 30S.
- PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS AND AREAS OF FROST. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS FRIDAY SHIFTING NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY: WITH THE COLD FRONT HAVING MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA, WINDS IN THE CASCADE GAPS HAVE RELAXED. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED IN MOUNTAIN AREAS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC
LIFT, BUT ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 0.10
INCHES. MAIN FOCUS NOW IS ON A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
RESULTING IN NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
NORTHERN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE
HIGH POSITIONED EAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL DROP DOWN
FROM CANADA INTO MONTANA, WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN THE NORTH-SOUTH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
FUNNELING DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY AND INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN.
AREAS IN THE BASIN THAT WILL EXPERIENCE THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE
THE EPHRATA AND MOSES LAKE AREA, WITH THE HREF SHOWING A 60
PERCENT CHANCE AND HIGHER OF WIND GUSTS STRONGER THAN 35 MPH
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE FUNNELING DOWN THE PURCELL TRENCH AND INTO THE
NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE. AREAS SUCH AS SANDPOINT AND COEUR
D’ALENE ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING GUSTY WINDS, THOUGH THEY
WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THOSE IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN. SANDPOINT SEES
THE HIGHEST CHANCES, WITH A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS
GREATER THAN 30 MPH. THE COEUR D’ALENE AREA HAS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 25 MPH. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES
IN, PWATS WILL DROP TO 60-80 PERCENT OF NORMAL, LEADING TO DRY
CONDITIONS WITH NO PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES,
ESPECIALLY FOR SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS REPUBLIC,
COLVILLE, AND DEER PARK, WHICH COULD HAVE THEIR FIRST FREEZE OF
THE YEAR THIS WEEKEND. IN PARTICULAR, SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE COLDEST DUE TO MINIMAL CLOUD COVER ENHANCING
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE INTO THE
HIGH 60S AND LOW 70S BY TUESDAY, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE 40S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: ENSEMBLE MODEL CONFIDENCE DROPS
SIGNIFICANTLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THOUGH THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
PNW COAST, THERE IS HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE LOCATION AND TRACK.
HALF OF THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS POINT TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INLAND, WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE OTHER HALF
SHOWS HIGHER HEIGHTS REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY,
WHICH WOULD BRING CONTINUED WARMER AND DRIER TEMPERATURES. WE
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THE MODELS EVOLVE OVER THE COMING
DAYS.
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
DECREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS (KOMK-KEPH-
KMWH) DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY AND THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND EASE
OFF INTO THE LATE MORNING. THE PURCELL TRENCH WILL BE BREEZY AS
WELL BUT NOT AS MUCH AS CENTRAL WA (15-25 MPH GUSTS FOR KSZT-
KCOE)
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 40 61 36 65 38 70 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 42 60 37 63 41 69 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 35 61 34 63 37 69 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 45 66 42 67 43 73 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 30 62 26 65 29 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 41 57 36 61 40 65 / 40 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 40 58 38 63 42 68 / 50 10 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 43 66 34 68 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 42 62 43 66 45 68 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 41 64 41 67 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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