917
FXUS66 KOTX 051144
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
444 AM PDT SUN OCT 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY NORTH WINDS SUNDAY MORNING IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND
FAR NORTH IDAHO.
- DRY SUNDAY ONWARD WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND 30S.
- PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS AND AREAS OF FROST. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS FRIDAY SHIFTING NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
SUNDAY: NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE INCREASED TONIGHT
BRINGING THE THREAT OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE OKANOGAN
VALLEY, COLUMBIA BASIN, AND PURCELL TRENCH. THERE IS A STILL A
70-90% CHANCE FOR THE OKANOGAN VALLEY AND COLUMBIA BASIN TO SEE
WIND GUSTS EXCEED 30 MPH AND A 20-40% CHANCE TO EXCEED 40 MPH.
THE WIND GUSTS IN THE PURCELL TRENCH WILL NOT BE AS STRONG BUT
LOCATIONS SUCH AS SANDPOINT AND COEUR D'ALENE WILL GUST AROUND
15-25 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH A DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS IN
PLACE, PWAT ANOMALIES HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 60-80% OF NORMAL.
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS (REPUBLIC AND COLVILLE) MAY SEE THEIR
FIRST FREEZE TONIGHT AS THEY ARE SHELTERED FROM THE WINDS.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS RELAX. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
60S. WITH LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS, THE FROST AND FREEZE RISK EXPANDS TO LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF
SHELTERED VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND PALOUSE.
FOR THE SHELTERED VALLEYS, THIS WILL BE A HARDER FREEZE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S. CONTINUAL DRY SINKING AIR IN NORTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON WILL BRING VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA SUNDAY
WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND POTENTIALLY EVEN
SINGLE DIGITS. DESPITE TEMPERATURES BEING IN THE 60S, PLACES
LIKE OMAK, WENATCHEE, AND WINTHROP COULD SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
IN THE LOW TEENS.
MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WA COAST WILL
START TO MOVE INLAND AND FLATTEN. THIS WILL BRING MILD CONDITIONS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S, FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS, AND SUNNY SKIES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS STILL VERY LOW BEYOND TUESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE STARTS TO DEEPEN IN SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. THERE IS HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW TO RETROGRADE OUT TO SEA DURING MID WEEK BUT
THE POSITIONING OF IT IS VERY IMPORTANT FOR THE INLAND NORTHWEST.
COLDER ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WITH THE TROUGH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY WED-
FRI HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. WARMER ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS WITH THE LOW MORE OFFSHORE BRING STRONG RIDGING INTO THE
AREA AND HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND EVEN 80S IN LOW LYING
AREAS. 00Z EUROPEAN AI, EURO, AND GFS ARE CLINGING ON TO THE WARMER
SOLUTIONS. THE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. /BUTLER
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF THE CENTRAL IDAHO
PANHANDLE. DRY NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE PURCELL TRENCH SHOULD
KEEP THIS MOISTURE FROM MAKING IT INTO KCOE. OTHERWISE, LOOKING
AT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AROUND KPUW AND KLWS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14-15Z THIS
MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING BETWEEN BONNERS
FERRY (K65S) AND KCOE WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS OF UP TO 20-25 KTS IS ALSO EXPECTED THIS MORNING
FROM KOMK TO KEPH/KMWH. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. ONE CAVEAT IS FOR EXPANDING
FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF KCOE. DECREASED
VISIBILITY AT THIS TERMINAL IS UNLIKELY STILL AT AROUND A 5%
PROBABILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING. /SVH
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 61 34 65 39 70 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 61 34 66 41 69 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 61 33 65 37 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 65 41 68 43 74 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 62 23 67 29 68 30 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 57 32 64 40 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 59 37 63 42 69 46 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 66 33 68 36 71 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 63 41 68 46 67 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 64 37 69 44 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
MOSES LAKE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN.
ID...NONE.
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