652
FXUS66 KOTX 060752
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1252 AM PDT MON OCT 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE IN SHELTERD VALLEYS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL OF
LIGHT MOUNTAIN PASS SNOW AND BREEZY WINDS.
SYNOPSIS
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS AND AREAS OF FROST. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEK. NEXT WEEKEND BRINGS CHANCES
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD IN THE 60S AND 70S
EARLY TO MID-WEEK THANKS TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA DIVING SOUTH AND
RETROGRADING OFF THE COAST. CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD
TO FROST DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN, PALOUSE,
AND NORTHEAST VALLEYS. COLD PRONE LOCATIONS SUCH AS DEER PARK AND
COLVILLE WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S THIS MORNING. CHILLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S WILL CONTINUE IN THE
NORTHEAST VALLEYS AS THE AIRMASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO DRASTICALLY
CHANGE.
WHILE MILD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE FORECASTED CONTINUE
THURSDAY, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW IS FORECASTED TO BE ONLY A
COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE THE WA/OR COAST. SHOWER CHANCES
INCREASE REGION WIDE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING MUCH NEED
BENEFICIAL RAINS. ACROSS ALL THE MOUNTAINS, THERE IS A 50-90% CHANCE
OF 0.25" OF RAIN FROM FRIDAY TO SUNDAY. THOSE CHANCES DECREASE TO 40-
70% FOR THE SPOKANE AREA, SOUTHEAST WA, AND THE L-C VALLEY. AS IN
MOST CASES, THE COLUMBIA BASIN HAS THE SMALLEST CHANCE TO SEE 0.25"+
OF RAIN (10-30% CHANCE). THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECWMF SHOW A
SECONDARY LOW DROPPING INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY
BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF POLAR AIR (WHICH HAS 60% SUPPORT FROM
THE ENSEMBLES) INTO THE REGION, WHICH WOULD BRING CHANCES FOR
MOUNTAIN PASS SNOW IN THE CASCADES AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. THIS
PERIOD WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG
WINDS AS WELL ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND COLD
FRONT PASSAGES. FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 5 PM SUNDAY, THE
PROBABILITY FOR 2+" OF SNOW AT SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN PASSES ARE
LISTED BELOW:
STEVENS PASS: 50%
WASHINGTON PASS: 45%
LOOKOUT PASS: 25%
SHERMAN PASS: 5%
COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LEVELS TO REACH NEAR THE VALLEY FLOORS IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. /BUTLER
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE TO NO WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 66 39 72 42 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
COEUR D'ALENE 65 40 70 42 72 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
PULLMAN 63 38 71 41 72 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
LEWISTON 68 43 75 46 76 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
COLVILLE 66 29 68 30 68 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
SANDPOINT 62 35 66 38 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
KELLOGG 63 42 70 47 71 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
MOSES LAKE 69 37 71 37 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
WENATCHEE 69 46 71 46 68 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
OMAK 70 42 71 42 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR MOSES LAKE AREA-
UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN.
ID...NONE.
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