663
FXUS66 KOTX 070949
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
248 AM PDT TUE OCT 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL OF
LIGHT MOUNTAIN PASS SNOW AND BREEZY WINDS.
SYNOPSIS
DRY WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND AREAS OF
FROST EARLY IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE WEEKEND BRINGS CHANCES OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
AND PRECIPITATION INCLUDING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD IN
THE 60S AND 70S EARLY TO MID-WEEK THANKS TO A WEAK NEARLY FLAT RIDGE
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA DIVING SOUTH AND
SLOWLY RETROGRADING OFF THE COAST. MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO
GREATER AGREEMENT THE THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW. IT WILL SCRAPE THE
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND BRINGING SOME CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL
WASHINGTON WHERE THERE IS BETTER SYNOPTIC SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S AND 70S ARE FORECASTED CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN
AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND WEST OF US-395 BETWEEN 0.01-
0.10".
THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A BREAK THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
LOW RETROGRADES OUT TO SEA. A WEAK PV ANOMALY WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST
OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY AND SWING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON BY FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING MORE SHOWER CHANCES. MODELS
STILL SHOW ANOTHER LOW FORMING IN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND DIVING SOUTH
INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY, BRINGING A STRONGER COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
MORE RAIN CHANCES AND DROPPING SNOW LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ACROSS ALL THE MOUNTAINS, THERE IS A 60-90% CHANCE OF 0.25" OF RAIN
FROM FRIDAY TO SUNDAY. THOSE CHANCES DECREASE TO 50-70% FOR THE
SPOKANE AREA, SOUTHEAST WA, AND THE L-C VALLEY. AS IN MOST CASES,
THE COLUMBIA BASIN HAS THE SMALLEST CHANCE TO SEE 0.25"+ OF RAIN (15-
30% CHANCE). THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BRING SNOW LEVELS TO 4000-
4500 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR
ALOFT IN THE METHOW VALLEY COULD ALLOW FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION ABOVE 3000 FEET, BUT THE PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 5 PM SUNDAY, THE
PROBABILITY FOR 2+" OF SNOW AT SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN PASSES ARE
LISTED BELOW:
STEVENS PASS: 50%
WASHINGTON PASS: 45%
LOOKOUT PASS: 45%
SHERMAN PASS: 10%
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LEVELS TO REACH NEAR THE
VALLEY FLOORS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS ESPECIALLY MONDAY
MORNING. /BUTLER
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. THE ONE
CAVEAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER VISIBILITY AT EAT WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO SMOKE FROM FIRES BURNING NEARBY. SMOKE WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL EASTERLY WINDS
PUSHES SMOKE BACK UP THE VALLEYS AND AWAY FROM THE AIRPORT TERMINAL.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT NEAR KEAT WHERE ACTIVE FIRES
COULD RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT
IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KEAT AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. /SVH
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 39 71 42 71 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
COEUR D'ALENE 39 71 42 71 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
PULLMAN 38 70 41 71 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
LEWISTON 43 75 47 75 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
COLVILLE 29 68 30 68 35 73 / 0 0 0 0 20 20
SANDPOINT 35 66 38 68 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 20 10
KELLOGG 43 70 47 71 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
MOSES LAKE 37 71 38 69 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 20 20
WENATCHEE 46 70 46 67 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 20 20
OMAK 42 71 42 68 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 20 20
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE FOR CENTRAL CHELAN
COUNTY- OKANOGAN VALLEY-WATERVILLE PLATEAU-WENATCHEE AREA-
WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY.
ID...NONE.
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