060
FXUS66 KOTX 071743
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1043 AM PDT TUE OCT 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL OF
LIGHT MOUNTAIN PASS SNOW AND BREEZY WINDS.
SYNOPSIS
DRY WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND AREAS OF
FROST EARLY IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE WEEKEND BRINGS CHANCES OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
AND PRECIPITATION INCLUDING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD IN
THE 60S AND 70S EARLY TO MID-WEEK THANKS TO A WEAK NEARLY FLAT RIDGE
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA DIVING SOUTH AND
SLOWLY RETROGRADING OFF THE COAST. MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO
GREATER AGREEMENT THE THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW. IT WILL SCRAPE THE
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND BRINGING SOME CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL
WASHINGTON WHERE THERE IS BETTER SYNOPTIC SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S AND 70S ARE FORECASTED CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN
AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND WEST OF US-395 BETWEEN 0.01-
0.10".
THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A BREAK THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
LOW RETROGRADES OUT TO SEA. A WEAK PV ANOMALY WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST
OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY AND SWING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON BY FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING MORE SHOWER CHANCES. MODELS
STILL SHOW ANOTHER LOW FORMING IN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND DIVING SOUTH
INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY, BRINGING A STRONGER COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
MORE RAIN CHANCES AND DROPPING SNOW LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ACROSS ALL THE MOUNTAINS, THERE IS A 60-90% CHANCE OF 0.25" OF RAIN
FROM FRIDAY TO SUNDAY. THOSE CHANCES DECREASE TO 50-70% FOR THE
SPOKANE AREA, SOUTHEAST WA, AND THE L-C VALLEY. AS IN MOST CASES,
THE COLUMBIA BASIN HAS THE SMALLEST CHANCE TO SEE 0.25"+ OF RAIN (15-
30% CHANCE). THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BRING SNOW LEVELS TO 4000-
4500 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR
ALOFT IN THE METHOW VALLEY COULD ALLOW FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION ABOVE 3000 FEET, BUT THE PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 5 PM SUNDAY, THE
PROBABILITY FOR 2+" OF SNOW AT SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN PASSES ARE
LISTED BELOW:
STEVENS PASS: 50%
WASHINGTON PASS: 45%
LOOKOUT PASS: 45%
SHERMAN PASS: 10%
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LEVELS TO REACH NEAR THE
VALLEY FLOORS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS ESPECIALLY MONDAY
MORNING. /BUTLER
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. EAT WILL
HAVE MVFR CONDITONS THROUG 20Z DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT NEAR KEAT WHERE ACTIVE FIRES
COULD RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT
IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KEAT AT TIMES IN THE MORNING. /JDC
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 42 72 44 73 46 70 / 0 0 10 10 10 40
COEUR D'ALENE 42 72 44 73 46 71 / 0 0 20 10 10 40
PULLMAN 41 71 41 71 43 68 / 0 0 10 10 20 40
LEWISTON 47 76 48 75 49 73 / 0 0 0 10 20 40
COLVILLE 31 68 34 72 36 70 / 0 0 30 20 10 40
SANDPOINT 38 68 41 69 41 68 / 0 0 20 20 10 40
KELLOGG 47 71 48 74 49 72 / 0 0 10 10 20 40
MOSES LAKE 38 69 43 70 43 69 / 0 0 20 30 20 40
WENATCHEE 46 68 48 67 51 68 / 0 0 30 30 30 40
OMAK 42 69 46 72 47 71 / 0 0 30 20 20 30
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL CHELAN
COUNTY-OKANOGAN VALLEY-WATERVILLE PLATEAU-WENATCHEE AREA-
WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY.
ID...NONE.
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