440
FXUS66 KOTX 080556
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1056 PM PDT TUE OCT 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL OF
LIGHT MOUNTAIN PASS SNOW AND BREEZY WINDS.
SYNOPSIS
DRY WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND AREAS OF
FROST EARLY IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE WEEKEND BRINGS CHANCES OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
AND PRECIPITATION INCLUDING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED AS THE REGION AS
A TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE COAST PUSHING THE RIDGE EAST OVER
MONTANA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN BE CHILLY 30S AND LOW 40S.
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A LOW
POSITIONS ITSELF OFF THE COAST. THE LOW WILL STAY IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO 70S. WENATCHEE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACTS TO AIR
QUALITY FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: THE LOW STAYS OFF THE COAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SENDING WEAK WAVES OF MOISTURE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS DECENT FOR THE
PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF THE LOW. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP ARE
ALONG THE CASCADES AND OKANOGAN FOOTHILLS BUT AMOUNTS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. THE LOW
FINALLY PUSHES ON SHORE SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOWERS CHANCES
SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE INLAND NORTHWEST. THE LOW WILL USHER IN
COLDER AIR AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000FT CAN
EXPECT SOME SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. SNOW AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES. RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE LOWER
TERRAINS WILL RANGE FROM UP TO A TENTH FOR THE CENTRAL BASIN AND
OKANOGAN VALLEY, 0.2-0.5" FOR MOST VALLEYS AND EASTERN BASIN,
AND AROUND 0.75" FOR HIGHER TERRAIN OF IDAHO PANHANDLE. HIGHS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S FOR THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO 30S.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE REGION CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY
THE WEAKENING TROUGH WITH LOWERING SHOWER CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND FROM THE WEEKEND. /JDC
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. WHILE
VISIBILITIES AT KEAT HAVE IMPROVED AND HAZE IS NO LONGER BEING
REPORTED, MODELS SHOW SMOKE AND HAZE MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA
BY THE MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS AND
PERIODIC IFR CONDITIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT NEAR KEAT WHERE ACTIVE FIRES
COULD RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THAT IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KEAT AT TIMES IN THE MORNING.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 42 73 45 76 46 71 / 0 0 10 10 10 30
COEUR D'ALENE 42 73 46 77 47 70 / 0 0 10 0 10 30
PULLMAN 41 72 44 73 43 69 / 0 0 0 10 10 30
LEWISTON 47 78 49 77 50 74 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
COLVILLE 31 69 34 75 36 70 / 0 0 20 10 0 40
SANDPOINT 38 70 42 72 42 69 / 0 0 10 0 0 30
KELLOGG 47 72 50 75 50 72 / 0 0 0 0 10 40
MOSES LAKE 37 71 44 71 45 70 / 0 0 10 20 10 40
WENATCHEE 47 68 48 70 51 68 / 0 0 30 30 20 40
OMAK 42 70 46 75 48 71 / 0 0 30 20 10 40
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL CHELAN
COUNTY-OKANOGAN VALLEY-WATERVILLE PLATEAU-WENATCHEE AREA-
WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY.
ID...NONE.
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