641
FXUS66 KOTX 120742
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1242 AM PDT SUN OCT 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
- GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON MONDAY. COLD WIND CHILLS IN
THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20S AND
30S BY TUESDAY.
SYNOPSIS
HEAVY SNOW WITH WINTER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED IN THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 3000 FEET SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. DRY
WEATHER WITH FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
...EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO
THE CASCADES, NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
NORTH IDAHO...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DROP SOUTH OVER THE REGION TODAY BRING MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE INLAND NW. THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA AND INTENSIFIES OVER THE REGION AS A SURFACE LOW SPINS
UP ALONG THE WA/OR COAST IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL
JET. THE SURFACE LOW WILL HELP DRAW IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR FROM
THE NORTH AS WINDS TURN NORTHEAST. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD LOWER
SNOW LEVELS BY MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTH AND
THE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE, PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL BE
DECREASING OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AS THE WINDS DRAW IN COLDER,
AND DRIER AIR. YET, MODELS SHOW A PERIOD OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY FOR THE WEST PLAINS
AND WATERVILLE PLATEAU. WITH THE WARMER GROUND TEMPERATURES OF
MID-OCTOBER, IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO STICK IN THE VALLEYS, BUT
SEVERAL INCHES WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE MOUNTAINS. MISSION RIDGE
WILL ESPECIALLY BE FAVORED AS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS UPSLOPE INTO
THAT AREA WITH 12-18 INCHES FORECAST.
BELOW ARE THE ARE THE PROBABILITIES FOR SNOWFALL THRESHOLDS OF AT
LEAST 2", 4", AND 8" AT OUR MOUNTAIN PASSES
MOUNTAIN PASS CHANCE OF 2+" CHANCE OF 4+" CHANCE OF 8+"
WASHINGTON 95% 90% 85%
SHERMAN 100% 90% 50%
LOOKOUT 80% 45% 5%
STEVENS 90% 80% 35%
BLEWETT 90% 60% 20%
LOUP LOUP 90% 70% 15%
REGARDING WINDS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY OVER
THE REGION STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN
ALBERTA, AND A 1005MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE OREGON COAST. THIS WILL
BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE OPEN AREA OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN, AND CHANNELLED NORTH-SOUTH DRAINAGES SUCH AS THE PURCELL TRENCH
IN NORTH IDAHO (SANDPOINT AND COEUR D'ALENE AREAS), AND THE OKANOGAN
VALLEY. THE NBM CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH IN THESE
AREAS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: A QUIETER PATTERN RETURNS AS THE LOW
DROPS SOUTH OVER CALIFORNIA AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE COAST
PROVIDES A DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE INLAND NW. IT WILL
FEEL LIKE FALL AS LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR
MOST OF THE REGION, AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: ENSEMBLES ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT OF A WEAKER
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE TROUGH AND MID LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW THE CASCADE CREST AND ID PANHANDLE HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WHILE MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON IS EXPECTED TO BE
RAIN SHADOWED. SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS BOUT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION RANGE
FROM 5000-6000 FEET. JW
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ID PANHANDLE
TONIGHT, DECREASING AND COMING TO AN END FOR THE SPOKANE AREA
OVERNIGHT. A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE ID PANHANDLE, WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WA TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES IN WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPS, WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS, AND EVEN LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS OVER NE WASHINGTON
AND THE NORTH ID PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL SWITCH ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME
NORTHEAST AS A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG
THE WASHINGTON COAST. THIS WILL IMPACT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
CONDITIONS, WITH MOISTENING SUNDAY EVENING FOR KEAT/KMWH WITH
LOWERING CIGS, WHILE CIGS MAY RISE SOME FOR KPUW/KLWS DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN CIGS LOWERING TO AT LEAST MVFR FOR KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW SUNDAY
MORNING AS RAIN DEVELOPS. JW
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 46 35 49 32 55 34 / 90 90 10 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 46 34 49 32 55 35 / 100 100 10 10 10 10
PULLMAN 47 39 52 32 55 32 / 90 90 20 10 10 10
LEWISTON 53 44 58 40 58 40 / 90 80 20 10 10 10
COLVILLE 49 32 49 19 57 23 / 90 100 20 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 43 32 45 27 54 30 / 100 100 20 10 10 10
KELLOGG 41 32 46 32 54 36 / 100 100 30 10 10 20
MOSES LAKE 56 40 54 35 58 33 / 70 90 60 0 10 0
WENATCHEE 54 37 50 38 57 39 / 80 90 70 0 0 0
OMAK 52 37 55 33 60 34 / 80 90 40 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR CENTRAL CHELAN COUNTY-WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY-
WESTERN OKANOGAN COUNTY.
ID...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
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