757
FXUS66 KOTX 121132
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
432 AM PDT SUN OCT 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
- GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON MONDAY. COLD WIND CHILLS IN
THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20S AND
30S BY TUESDAY.
SYNOPSIS
HEAVY SNOW WITH WINTER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED IN THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 3000 FEET SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. DRY
WEATHER WITH FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
...EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO
THE CASCADES, NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
NORTH IDAHO...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DROP SOUTH OVER THE REGION TODAY BRING MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE INLAND NW. THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA AND INTENSIFIES OVER THE REGION AS A SURFACE LOW
SPINS UP ALONG THE WA/OR COAST IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET. THE SURFACE LOW WILL HELP DRAW IN LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH AS WINDS TURN NORTHEAST. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD LOWER SNOW LEVELS BY MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH AS
THE LOW DROPS SOUTH AND THE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE,
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL BE DECREASING OVER THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS AS THE WINDS DRAW IN COLDER, AND DRIER AIR. YET, MODELS
SHOW A PERIOD OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY FOR THE WEST PLAINS AND WATERVILLE
PLATEAU. WITH THE WARMER GROUND TEMPERATURES OF MID-OCTOBER, IT
WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO STICK IN THE VALLEYS, BUT SEVERAL
INCHES WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE MOUNTAINS. MISSION RIDGE WILL
ESPECIALLY BE FAVORED AS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS UPSLOPE INTO
THAT AREA WITH 12-18 INCHES FORECAST.
BELOW ARE THE ARE THE PROBABILITIES FOR SNOWFALL THRESHOLDS OF
AT LEAST 2", 4", AND 8" AT OUR MOUNTAIN PASSES
MOUNTAIN PASS CHANCE OF 2+" CHANCE OF 4+" CHANCE OF 8+"
WASHINGTON 95% 90% 85%
SHERMAN 100% 90% 50%
LOOKOUT 80% 45% 5%
STEVENS 90% 80% 35%
BLEWETT 90% 60% 20%
LOUP LOUP 90% 70% 15%
REGARDING WINDS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY OVER THE REGION STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH
OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA, AND A 1005MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
OREGON COAST. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ESPECIALLY
IN THE OPEN AREA OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN, AND CHANNELED NORTH-
SOUTH DRAINAGES SUCH AS THE PURCELL TRENCH IN NORTH IDAHO
(SANDPOINT AND COEUR D'ALENE AREAS), AND THE OKANOGAN VALLEY.
THE NBM CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH IN THESE
AREAS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: A QUIETER PATTERN RETURNS AS THE
LOW DROPS SOUTH OVER CALIFORNIA AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF
THE COAST PROVIDES A DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE INLAND
NW. IT WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE
20S AND 30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION, AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: ENSEMBLES ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT OF A
WEAKER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE TROUGH AND
MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW THE CASCADE CREST AND ID PANHANDLE HAVE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WHILE MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON
IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN SHADOWED. SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS BOUT OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION RANGE FROM 5000-6000 FEET. JW
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL IMPACT CENTRAL AND EASTERN WA
AND ID THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BRINGING EXPANDING MVFR. GEG/SFF/COE/PUW WILL HAVE THE
BEST POTENTIAL, THEN AS THE LOW STARTS TO DROP SOUTH THE RISK
EXPANDS TO LWS AND LATER TOWARD MWH/EAT AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE
UPSLOPE TOWARD THAT AREA. HEADING INTO LATER THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY MONDAY THE WINDS TURN MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE AREA, WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 15-30 MPH IN SOME
SPOTS HEADING INTO MONDAY AM (AND CONTINUE INTO THE DAY
MONDAY). THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL START TO DECREASE BUT
NOT QUICKLY ENOUGH TO RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW
MIX EARLY MONDAY AM NEAR GEG/SFF/COE AND AREAS THE NORTHEAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN CIGS LOWERING TO AT LEAST MVFR FOR GEG/SFF/COE/PUW AND
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT LWS AFTER 18Z AND
AFTER 00-03Z NEAR MWH/EAT.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 46 35 49 32 55 34 / 90 90 10 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 46 34 49 32 55 35 / 100 100 10 10 10 10
PULLMAN 47 39 52 32 55 32 / 90 90 20 10 10 10
LEWISTON 53 44 58 40 58 40 / 90 80 20 10 10 10
COLVILLE 49 32 49 19 57 23 / 90 100 20 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 43 32 45 27 54 30 / 100 100 20 10 10 10
KELLOGG 41 32 46 32 54 36 / 100 100 30 10 10 20
MOSES LAKE 56 40 54 35 58 33 / 70 90 60 0 10 0
WENATCHEE 54 37 50 38 57 39 / 80 90 70 0 0 0
OMAK 52 37 55 33 60 34 / 80 90 40 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR CENTRAL CHELAN COUNTY-WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY-
WESTERN OKANOGAN COUNTY.
ID...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page