020
FXUS66 KOTX 131202
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
502 AM PDT MON OCT 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MOUNTAIN SNOW DECREASING BY LATE THIS MORNING.
- GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.
- COLDER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SYNOPSIS
TODAY WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS WITH SNOW OVER
THE CENTRAL CASCADES DECREASING BY LATE IN THE MORNING. DRY
WEATHER WITH FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS. WET WEATHER AND BREEZY
WINDS LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
TODAY: A CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST AND A 1028MB
SURFACE HIGH OVER ALBERTA WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE AREA TODAY. AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTH THIS
MORNING AND FURTHER FROM THE AREA, AND DRIER NORTHEAST WINDS
TAKES OVER WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END. YET WITH THE LOW
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THIS MORNING, THE LOW LEVEL NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL UPSLOPE INTO THE BLEWETT PASS AND MISSION RIDGE AREA
WHERE HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING. TOTAL
SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 8-12" FOR BLEWETT PASS
WITH OVER A FOOT FOR MISSION RIDGE. THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE WIND CHANNELED AREAS OF THE OKANOGAN
VALLEY, PURCELL TRENCH IN NORTH IDAHO, AND OUT OVER THE COLUMBIA
BASIN. WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE
AREAS.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: THE LOW CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH TO
NEAR SAN FRANCISCO, CA OVERNIGHT BEFORE TRACKING EAST THROUGH
NEVADA, SE IDAHO, AND NW WYOMING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE COAST WILL PROVIDE A DRY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
ALSO EASE ALLOWING FOR COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS. FROST WILL OCCUR
FOR MOST AREAS EACH NIGHT, AND SOME FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR AREAS STILL WITHIN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL GROWING SEASON.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: ENSEMBLES ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT HEADING TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND. ON FRIDAY A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSES MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LIMITED TO MAINLY THE CASCADE CREST AND ID PANHANDLE. ON
SATURDAY A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONGER SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA.
THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW, BUT THIS CHANGES HEADING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW. WASHINGTON PASS HAS A
70% CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST 2 INCHES ON SUNDAY, BUT ODDS ARE
LOWER FOR OTHER PASSES GIVEN RATHER HIGH SNOW LEVELS AROUND
5000-6000 FEET. BREEZY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM. JW
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WRAPPED UP IN THIS FEATURE WILL
KEEP LIGHT RAIN CHANCES GOING NEAR GEG/SFF AND MWH/EAT THIS
MORNING. A WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW MAY ALSO LEAD TO SOME RENEWED PRECIPITATION OVER
SOUTHEASTERN WA/LOWER ID LATER THIS MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON,
NEAR PUW/LWS. THIS MORNING LOOK FOR LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS,
SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER 14-16Z TO VFR, BUT THAT RENEWED
PRECIPITATION BAND WILL BRING INCREASED SWATH OF CLOUDS FROM
16-22Z AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN NEAR
PUW/LWS, POSSIBLY REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS GEG/SFF/COE. WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST, GUSTING NEAR 20-30
MPH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING, EXCEPT NEAR
LWS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING OVER GEG/SFF/COE/EAT/MWH BEFORE
15-18Z. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR
PUW/LWS BETWEEN 16-21Z WITH CLOUDS AND -RA CHANCE WRAPPING IN
THROUGH THAT PERIOD. LOW CONFIDENCE IN -RASN EARLY THIS MORNING
AROUND GEG/SFF/COE.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 50 31 56 32 59 32 / 10 0 0 10 10 0
COEUR D'ALENE 49 31 55 33 58 33 / 10 0 0 10 10 10
PULLMAN 54 29 56 31 54 31 / 10 0 0 10 20 10
LEWISTON 58 38 59 40 60 39 / 10 10 10 10 20 10
COLVILLE 51 18 56 20 60 21 / 10 0 0 0 10 0
SANDPOINT 46 26 53 29 56 29 / 10 0 0 10 10 0
KELLOGG 46 31 54 35 57 36 / 20 10 0 10 20 10
MOSES LAKE 56 33 60 30 61 31 / 60 0 0 0 10 0
WENATCHEE 52 36 59 38 63 40 / 80 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 56 32 60 32 62 35 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
CENTRAL CHELAN COUNTY-WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY.
ID...NONE.
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