219
FXUS66 KOTX 132336
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
436 PM PDT MON OCT 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.
- COLDER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WITH FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS. WET WEATHER AND
BREEZY WINDS LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SITTING JUST OVER THE
OREGON COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
A SURFACE HIGH JUST NORTH OF MONTANA HAS CREATED A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH THE LOW, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD AND THE HIGH MOVES
EASTWARD, THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE IS NO FURTHER RAIN ANTICIPATED APART FROM
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF CONTINUED PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHEAST
BLUES AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MAIN IMPACTS DURING THESE FEW DAYS WILL BE
COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. AS THE SKIES CLEAR OUT AND PROMOTE
RADIATIONAL COOLING, LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL
DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. IN PARTICULAR, THE MOSES LAKE AREA
IS STILL WITHIN ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL GROWING SEASON AND IS ON TRACK TO
SEE NEAR OR AT FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A
FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA FROM 12AM-9AM TOMORROW
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE COAST WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME HIGHER HEIGHTS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, WARMING
TEMPERATURES TO THE MID TO HIGH 50S, WHICH IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. PWATS DURING THESE DAYS WILL DROP DOWN TO 0.25-0.50", WHICH
IS ONLY 55-70% OF NORMAL, INDICATING VERY DRY CONDITIONS MID-WEEK.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
STATE OF WASHINGTON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY TO GUSTY DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE LEESIDE OF THE
CASCADES, WHICH WILL THEN SPILL INTO THE BASIN THROUGH THE DAY.
ANTICIPATED WIND GUSTS WILL BE 20-25KTS. THESE WINDS WILL RELAX BY
SATURDAY. PWATS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL RISE TO JUST AT
100%. HOWEVER, CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE LOW
AND MAINLY CONFINED TO MOUNTAIN AREAS VIA OROGRAPHIC LIFT. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY,
BRINGING A MORE POTENT SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA WITH HIGHER
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS PWATS RISE TO 150-200% OF NORMAL. NBM
PROBABILITIES INDICATE THAT AREAS APART FROM THE MOSES LAKE AND
UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN HAVE A 30% CHANCE OR HIGHER OF SEEING 0.25" OF
RAIN FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE SHOWING GENERAL
AGREEMENT FOR THIS SETUP, WITH 82% OF CLUSTERS FAVORING LOW HEIGHTS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON MODELS AS
THEY RESOLVE THIS WEEKEND'S SYSTEM, BUT SIGNALS ARE LEANING TOWARD
ANOTHER UNSETTLED WEEKEND. /AS
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: ALL TAF SITES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT VFR THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLOUDS CLEARING THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS THROUGH 02-03Z FOR GEG, SFF, AND MWH THEN
WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. COE WILL STAY BREEZY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VFR CONDITIONS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 30 57 33 58 32 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 30 57 33 59 33 57 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
PULLMAN 29 55 31 55 30 57 / 0 0 0 10 10 0
LEWISTON 38 59 40 60 39 61 / 10 10 0 10 10 0
COLVILLE 18 57 20 59 21 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 25 54 30 58 30 55 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
KELLOGG 31 55 35 57 36 56 / 10 0 10 10 10 0
MOSES LAKE 33 60 30 61 30 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 36 58 38 62 40 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 32 61 33 63 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
MOSES LAKE AREA.
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT TO 9 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR MOSES LAKE AREA.
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 9 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR MOSES LAKE AREA.
ID...NONE.
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