444
FXUS66 KOTX 150751
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1251 AM PDT WED OCT 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- RAIN, HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND BREEZY WINDS THIS WEEKEND.
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. WET WEATHER AND
BREEZY WINDS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD FROM
CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA AND UTAH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SUBTLE RIDGE WEST OF THE CASCADES TO SHIFT INTO THE INLAND NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A PERSISTENT DRY AIR MASS, WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BELOW 0.40 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WILL
SUPPORT EFFECTIVE RADIATIVE COOLING OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S FOR MOST AREAS, WITH
MID TO UPPER 30S NEAR LARGER WATER BODIES LIKE THE COLUMBIA RIVER
AND IN THE L-C VALLEY.
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, MODELS CONSISTENTLY INDICATE AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA, WHICH WILL FLATTEN THE
RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE INLAND
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SUGGEST THAT THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES (30-60%) WILL BE CONFINED TO
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS, INCLUDING THE CASCADES AND THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS, FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: FOLLOWING THE WEAK SYSTEM, A TRANSIENT UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A STRONGER SYSTEM
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE INLAND NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE. INITIAL SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE HIGH DUE TO WARM, MOIST AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. SNOW LEVELS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO FALL TO BELOW 5000 FEET FOR
CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND AROUND 5500 FEET OVER THE IDAHO PANHANDLE
BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES PERSIST
REGARDING THE TROUGH’S STRENGTH AND RESULTANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS,
WITH 57% OF ENSEMBLES DEPICTING A QUICKER TROUGH WITH MORE ZONAL
FLOW AND 43% SHOWING A DEEPER, SLOWER-MOVING TROUGH. THE NBM
INDICATES A GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE FOR 0.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
IN THE CASCADES, FAR EASTERN WASHINGTON, AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. IT
ALSO SHOWS A 50% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF SNOW OVER
WASHINGTON PASS AND A 15% CHANCE FOR STEVENS PASS. WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 45 MPH WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ON SUNDAY, WITH THE NBM
SHOWING A 20-40% CHANCE FROM THE WENATCHEE AREA THROUGH THE COLUMBIA
BASIN INTO THE SPOKANE AREA AND ACROSS THE PALOUSE AND BLUE
MOUNTAINS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: ENSEMBLES SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS MAY IMPACT
THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
OVERALL SPECIFICS LEADS TO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. /VMT
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR
SETTLING IN THE INLAND NORTHWEST WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VFR CONDITIONS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 59 31 58 36 58 34 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
COEUR D'ALENE 58 33 57 36 57 35 / 0 0 0 0 20 10
PULLMAN 54 29 56 35 57 34 / 0 0 0 0 20 10
LEWISTON 59 37 61 42 63 41 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
COLVILLE 59 21 57 23 57 24 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
SANDPOINT 56 29 55 31 54 31 / 0 0 0 10 30 10
KELLOGG 58 34 56 39 53 37 / 0 0 0 10 50 30
MOSES LAKE 60 29 60 35 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 61 40 61 44 62 42 / 0 0 0 10 0 0
OMAK 61 35 61 36 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR MOSES LAKE AREA-
WENATCHEE AREA.
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
MOSES LAKE AREA.
ID...NONE.
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