062
FXUS66 KOTX 210629
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1029 PM PST THU NOV 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MINIMAL WEATHER IMPACTS OUTSIDE MORNING FOG THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
- SNOW RETURNS TO THE MOUNTAIN PASSES SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
- LIGHT VALLEY SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODERATE SNOW ON THE MOUNTAIN PASSES.
SYNOPSIS
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NEAR TO WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS
SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. SNOW WILL IMPACT THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS MIDWEEK SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW IN THE LOWLANDS AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT-SATURDAY: A QUIET AND RELATIVELY MILD END TO THE WORK WEEK
AND START OF THE WEEKEND. THE WEAK FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
HEAVIER CLOUD COVER OVER PORTIONS OF THE INW ON THURSDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH MIDLEVEL CLOUDS ERODING THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT TONIGHT WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG DEVELOPING. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. BE CAUTIOUS OF SLICK CONDITIONS
HEADING OUT FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. AS OF 2PM, WE ARE
ALREADY SEEING A BANK OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE PALOUSE BEGINNING
TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO SPOKANE-CD'A THIS EVENING. WITH
THE ESTABLISHED STRATUS DECK, THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR FOG
WILL BE WEST AND NORTH OF THESE LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN BASIN AS WELL AS THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN WA AND
NORTH ID WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A 120+ KT JET
NOSING INTO SOUTHERN BC. THICK CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH
NORTHERN WA AND NORTH IDAHO AT TIMES WITH A 20-30% CHANCE FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MUCH OF THE INW WILL
REMAIN DRY AND MILD FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH SPEEDS OF 10 MPH OR
LESS.
SUNDAY-MONDAY: CHANGES ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AS TROUGH WITH COOLER AIR
DROPS OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THROUGH THE NORTHWEST. THE
TROUGH WILL USHER A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH SUCH THAT IMPACTS ON
THE MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL BE MINIMAL (MAINLY WET) THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR WILL FLOOD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT DELIVERING GUSTY WINDS AND TRANSITION FROM RAIN
TO SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EVEN SOME OF THE HIGHER BENCHES OF
THE CAMAS PRAIRIE, PALOUSE, AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH WILL EXTEND
BETWEEN WALLA WALLA AND PULLMAN.
MOTORISTS HEADING OVER THE CASCADES AND LOOKOUT PASS AFTER SUNSET
SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A TRANSITION TOWARD
WINTERY WEATHER. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
ON MONDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE
SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE INLAND
NW WILL BE COOL AND LARGELY DRY WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS IN
PLACE. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL HAVE A BIT MORE OF A BITE
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S AND ACCOMPANYING WIND CHILLS IN
THE 30S DUE TO STEADY WINDS OF 6-12 MPH.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY: TUESDAY WILL BE A FAVORABLE TRAVEL DAY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION
AND DRY CONDITIONS OUTSIDE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. IT WILL
BE A COLD START WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 20S. THE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKES A TURN TUESDAY NIGHT HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
THE NEXT PLUME OF RICH MOISTURE BECOMING AIMED TO THE NORTHWEST.
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO
IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS RICH
MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE COOLER AIR LEFT BEHIND SUNDAY NIGHT'S COLD
FRONT. AT THIS TIME, THE INITIAL BAND OF LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO BE
A QUICK HITTER ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH A STRONG JET ARRIVING
ON ITS HEELS OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. NONETHELESS, THIS COULD
BE THE FIRST DUSTING TO INCH OF SNOW FOR MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS
THE INW. TRAVEL OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES COULD BE A DIFFERENT
STORY WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IN THE CASCADES AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE AMOUNTS OVER LOOKOUT PASS. THOSE PLANNING TO TRAVEL
OVER THE CASCADE PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ARE URGED
TO MONITOR THE FORECAST CLOSELY AND PLAN ACCORDINGLY. STEVENS
AND WASHINGTON PASSES HAVE A 40/30% CHANCE FOR 8" OR MORE
RESPECTIVELY WITH A BULK OF THIS FALLING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
THE FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY DUE
TO MANY VARIATIONS WITH THE ORIENTATION OF AN INCOMING THE
PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. IF THIS RICH AXIS OF MOISTURE
(WHICH CONTAINS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF
200-220% OF NORMAL) CAN REMAIN AIMED WITH A SLIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION INTO THE CASCADES AND INW, THE AIR MASS
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BECOME WARMER AND RESULT IN RISING SNOW LEVELS.
THIS COULD MEAN A TRANSITION TO RAIN FOR MOST LOWLANDS AND EVEN
THE PASSES. THE NBM HAS NEARLY A 50/50 SPLIT FOR P-TYPE (RAIN
OR SNOW) AT STEVENS PASS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PASS IS
HIGHER ELEVATION THAN SNOQUALMIE WHICH COULD EXPERIENCE A
TRANSITION TO RAIN SOONER. THIS MAY BE GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE
HOLIDAY TRAVELERS NEEDING TO TRAVEL LAST MINUTE WEDNESDAY PM AND
NIGHT. IN A DIFFERENT SCENARIO, THE AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE NOSES INLAND FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE WA/OR BORDER.
IN THIS OUTCOME, THE COLD AIR PERSISTS OVER THE WA AND ID PASSES
AND RESULTS IN POTENTIAL FOR ALL SNOW FOR STEVENS, WASHINGTON,
AND LOOKOUT PASSES. THIS WOULD ALSO KEEP SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS ALTHOUGH, THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR A PERIOD OF TIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING BACK IN THURSDAY. ALL
THINGS CONSIDERED, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS
CENTERED AROUND THURSDAY. /SB
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: A BANK OF IFR STRATUS IS CURRENTLY ESTABLISHED
BETWEEN SPOKANE-CD'A AND PULLMAN. PROGNOSIS IS FOR LOW CLOUDS TO
EXPAND INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE
COLUMBIA BASIN. THESE AREAS STARTING OUT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL RADIATE AND WILL SEE A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW IFR CONDITIONS.
THIS INCLUDES EPHRATA AND MOSES LAKE, COLVILLE, AND SANDPOINT
AIRPORTS, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT WENATCHEE AIRPORT. VISIBILITY
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP AT KGEG AS THE STRATUS DECK DROPS WITH
FOG AFTER 10Z. DRIER SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS
THE PALOUSE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL ERODE THE LOW CLOUDS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT KPUW BY MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS KGEG
KSFF/KCOE AROUND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WITH STRATUS AND
FOG OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 50% CHANCE THAT
KGEG WILL SEE LOW IFR CONDITIONS, AND PROBABILITIES A BIT HIGHER
AT 60% FOR KMWH AFTER 10Z. CHANCES FOR FOG AT KEAT ARE LOW, BUT
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOG MAY FORM IN PATCHES NEAR THIS
AIRPORT WITH AROUND A 10% CHANCE OF FORMING AT THE TERMINAL
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. /SVH
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 32 44 30 46 34 47 / 0 10 0 0 10 30
COEUR D'ALENE 34 44 33 47 35 47 / 0 10 10 10 20 40
PULLMAN 31 46 31 48 34 49 / 0 10 0 0 10 30
LEWISTON 35 49 34 51 37 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
COLVILLE 26 42 28 45 30 44 / 0 20 10 10 30 40
SANDPOINT 31 42 32 45 34 44 / 20 30 20 20 40 60
KELLOGG 36 45 35 49 37 49 / 10 20 10 10 20 50
MOSES LAKE 29 42 28 43 30 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
WENATCHEE 31 44 33 45 36 47 / 0 10 0 0 10 30
OMAK 31 43 34 44 36 45 / 0 10 0 0 10 20
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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