223
FXUS66 KOTX 210821
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1221 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MINIMAL WEATHER IMPACTS OUTSIDE MORNING FOG THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
- SNOW RETURNS TO THE MOUNTAIN PASSES SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
- BREEZY WINDS WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.
- LIGHT VALLEY SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODERATE SNOW ON THE MOUNTAIN PASSES.
SYNOPSIS
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NEAR TO WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS
SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. SNOW WILL IMPACT THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS MIDWEEK SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW IN THE LOWLANDS AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY: A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FLOPS OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST OFF OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TODAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AT UPPER LEVELS NORTH OF THIS RIDGE WITH A MODEST JET
STREAK OF 150 MPH DIRECTED INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TODAY.
MOISTURE WILL RIDE THIS JET STREAK AND REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION.
THE HIGHER HEIGHTS WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE DECK OF LOW CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG
IS ALSO EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE LOW
CLOUDS AND IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE THE EVENING
STARTED DEVOID OF STRATUS COVER AND SAW THE SURFACE RADIATE OUT
A BIT MORE. BE AWARE IF OUT AN ABOUT THIS MORNING THAT SOME
SPOTS MAY SEE REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG. A TIGHTENING
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE
PALOUSE AND INTO THE SPOKANE AREA AND ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN THE DECK OF LOW CLOUDS ERODING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST. MOISTURE HIGHER UP IN THE ATMOSPHERE RIDING THE JET
OFF TO THE NORTH WILL ALSO PUSH ACROSS SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES. THE JET DOES BEING TO SAG A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE COURSE OF SATURDAY WHEN THESE CLOUDS
THICKEN UP A BIT AT LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: THIS WILL BE A WETTER AND BREEZIER
PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY DYNAMIC COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITAITON WILL INCREAS ACROSS THE CASCADES ON
SATURDAY, AND THEN WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT ON SUNDAY.
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW LOOKS TO SHADOW OUT AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE
CASCADES. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SNOW LEVELS DROPPING AND WILL SEE SNOW STICKING OVER
STEVENS PASS AND WASHINGTON PASS WHERE WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATE SNOW INTENSITIES MAY
RESULT IN TRICKY TRAVEL AS ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED RATHER
QUICKLY. TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 4 TO 8 INCHES. THIS IS
ON THE LOWER END OF NEEDING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. RAIN ALSO
LOOKS TO TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED OVER LOOKOUT PASS BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THIS PASS IS EXPECTED TO SEE ACCUMULATIONS MORE IN THE RANGE OF 2-4
INCHES. WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME WET SNOW MIXING IN DOWN INTO THE
LOWLANDS RIGHT ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE FRONT AS IT PASSES
THROUGH. WIND WILL BE GUSTY WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND THEN
REMAIN BREEZY INTO MONDAY. ALPOWA SUMMIT WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH WITH THE PALOUSE SEEING THE POTENTIAL
OF GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH. WINDS ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN INTO THE
SPOKANE AREA WILL BE MORE BETWEEN 25-35 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS RELAXING
AND ALSO BRING A BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER. A POTENTIALLY MORE
IMPACTFUL WEATHER SYSTEM THEN COMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
JUST IN TIME FOR TRAVEL PLANS FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES AND SNOW LEVELS
MAINLY FOR POTENTIAL OF SNOW IN THE LOW LANDS. PROBABILITY OF
SEEING AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW HAS INCREASED A BIT OFF OF THE
NBM FOR WEDNESDAY. SPOKANE AROUND A 25% CHANCE; COLVILLE,
CHEWELAH, SANDPOINT, AND KELLOGG HAVE AROUND A 40% CHANCE; AND
PULLMAN HAS A 10% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW.
PENITENTIAL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR THE MOISTURE. JUST A MATTER OF
IF IT COMES WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING MORE MILD AND SNOW LEVELS
COME UP OR NOT. THE MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL SEE A CHANCE OF HEAVY
SNOW WITH STEVENS PASS HAVING A 20% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A FOOT
OF SNOW AND A 10% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 8 INCHES FALLING OVER
LOOKOUT PASS. KEEP UP TO DATE ON FORECAST UPDATES IF LOOKING TO
TRAVEL OUT OF THE REGION FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEK. COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND AS WELL WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SNOW
POSSIBLE. WINTER SEEMS TO BE MAKING AN ENTRANCE! /SVH
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: A BANK OF IFR STRATUS IS CURRENTLY ESTABLISHED
BETWEEN SPOKANE-CD'A AND PULLMAN. PROGNOSIS IS FOR LOW CLOUDS TO
EXPAND INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE
COLUMBIA BASIN. THESE AREAS STARTING OUT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL RADIATE AND WILL SEE A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW IFR CONDITIONS.
THIS INCLUDES EPHRATA AND MOSES LAKE, COLVILLE, AND SANDPOINT
AIRPORTS, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT WENATCHEE AIRPORT. VISIBILITY
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP AT KGEG AS THE STRATUS DECK DROPS WITH
FOG AFTER 10Z. DRIER SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS
THE PALOUSE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL ERODE THE LOW CLOUDS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT KPUW BY MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS KGEG
KSFF/KCOE AROUND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WITH STRATUS AND
FOG OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 50% CHANCE THAT
KGEG WILL SEE LOW IFR CONDITIONS, AND PROBABILITIES A BIT HIGHER
AT 60% FOR KMWH AFTER 10Z. CHANCES FOR FOG AT KEAT ARE LOW, BUT
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOG MAY FORM IN PATCHES NEAR THIS
AIRPORT WITH AROUND A 10% CHANCE OF FORMING AT THE TERMINAL
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. /SVH
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 43 30 45 34 45 30 / 10 0 0 0 30 70
COEUR D'ALENE 44 32 47 35 47 31 / 10 0 0 10 40 80
PULLMAN 45 31 48 34 47 31 / 0 0 0 0 20 80
LEWISTON 48 35 51 37 52 36 / 0 0 0 0 10 70
COLVILLE 43 27 44 30 44 25 / 20 10 10 20 50 70
SANDPOINT 43 32 45 34 44 31 / 30 10 10 30 60 90
KELLOGG 44 35 49 37 48 33 / 20 10 0 10 40 90
MOSES LAKE 42 29 43 30 44 28 / 0 0 0 0 20 30
WENATCHEE 44 32 45 35 46 34 / 0 0 0 10 40 40
OMAK 42 33 43 34 43 29 / 0 0 0 10 30 30
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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