381
FXUS66 KOTX 220004
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
404 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MINIMAL WEATHER IMPACTS OUTSIDE MORNING FOG THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
- SNOW RETURNS TO THE MOUNTAIN PASSES SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
- GUSTY WINDS WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.
- LIGHT VALLEY SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODERATE SNOW ON THE MOUNTAIN PASSES.
SYNOPSIS
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NEAR TO WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS
SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. SNOW WILL IMPACT THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS MIDWEEK SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW IN THE LOWLANDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THOUGH A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
TIME GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT-SATURDAY: ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL EQUATE TO MINIMAL WEATHER IMPACTS ACROSS
THE INLAND NW IN REGARDS TO WIND, PRECIPITATION, AND
TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS TO TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE MID 30S
TO UPPER 20S AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUD COVER.
CONSEQUENTLY, BE CAUTIOUS OF AREAS OF FREEZING TEMPS AND
POTENTIAL FOR ICY CONDITIONS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THOUGH IT
WILL NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD AND HIGHLY LOCALIZED IN AREAS WHERE
THERE IS LESS STRATUS AND MORE FOG.
SUNDAY-MONDAY: CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR WEATHER CHANGES ON
SUNDAY AS A TROUGH DROPS OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND SWINGS
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST. A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS SUNDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT RESULTING IN THICKENING CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WA MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 20.
PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR THE
LOWLANDS THOUGH COOLER AIR TRAPPED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND
IN THE METHOW VALLEY COULD RESULT IN WET SNOW FALLING AS LOW AS
2500-3000 FEET. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO
IMPACT WASHINGTON AND SHERMAN PASSES WITH AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES
AT SHERMAN AND 3-5 INCHES FOR WASHINGTON PASS. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWING INTO THE REGION REACHING THE CASCADES AROUND MIDDAY THEN
EASTERN WA AND NORTH ID DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH SUCH THAT IMPACTS ON THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
WILL BE MINIMAL (MAINLY WET) THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COLDER
AIR WILL FLOOD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
DELIVERING GUSTY WINDS AND TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND SMALL POTENTIAL FOR WET SNOW ON THE HIGHER BENCHES
OF THE CAMAS PRAIRIE, PALOUSE, AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
COLUMBIA BASIN, SPOKANE AREA, AND INTO NORTH IDAHO. LOCALLY
STRONGER WINDS AROUND 40 MPH WILL IMPACT THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS ALONG HWY 12 (40% CHANCE) WITH A 15% CHANCE FOR
REACHING PULLMAN.
MOTORISTS HEADING OVER THE CASCADE PASSES AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY
EVENING SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A TRANSITION TOWARD WINTRY
WEATHER. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE SHOWERS
TAPER OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE INLAND NW WILL
BE COOL AND LARGELY DRY WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL HAVE A BIT MORE OF A BITE WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S AND ACCOMPANYING WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S
DUE TO STEADY WINDS OF 8-15 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY: TUESDAY REMAINS A FAVORABLE TRAVEL DAY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST, AT LEAST EARLY IN THE DAY. SNOW WILL ARRIVE IN
THE CASCADES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY EXPAND EASTWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. NBM POPS SEEM A BIT
AGGRESSIVE WITH 30-60% CHANCES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON REGION-WIDE
WITH MANY OF THE ENSEMBLES HOLDING OFF ON PRECIPITATION AWAY
FROM THE CASCADES UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS IS STILL FOUR
DAYS OUT, I ANTICIPATE THESE COULD LOWER WITH TIME. ANY
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY
LIGHT WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. A PLUME
OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BECOME STEERED INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT, WEDNESDAY, AND DEPART EARLY THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION AND RISING SNOW LEVELS. THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST
GETS A BIT MORE CHALLENGING. ONE COMPONENT OF UNCERTAINTY IS
HOW QUICKLY THE SNOW LEVELS WILL COME UP. A SECOND COMPONENT IS
WHEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ARRIVE. THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW AT THE ONSET ON THE EVENT. THERE IS ALSO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR THE COLDER AIR TO REMAIN MORE STUBBORN IN THE E
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CANADIAN BORDER.
AS SUCH, AWAY FROM THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN, L-C VALLEY, AND
ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER FROM WENATCHEE TO OMAK THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR AT LEAST SOME SNOW TO FALL. AMOUNTS COME
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AND COULD RANGE FROM A TRACE AND JUST A FEW
WET FLAKES TO UPWARDS OF 3 INCHES FOR THE LOWLANDS. HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR 2+ EXIST IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS (20-40%).
GREATER IMPACTS WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES DURING THIS
BUSY HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD. WHILE SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY RISE
NEAR OR ABOVE PASS LEVELS FOR SNOQUALMIE AND STEVENS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, TIMING AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
FOR EXACT TIMING AND MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST
CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE CASCADE PASSES WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS
FOR SHERMAN AND LOOKOUT PASS WILL COME CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
TO SUMMARIZE, MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SNOWY TRAVEL OVER
THE PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A TRANSITION
FROM SNOW TO RAIN ON THE CASCADES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE
CASCADE PASSES COME WITH A 25-45% CHANCE FOR 8" OR MORE SNOW
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT STEVENS/WASHINGTON PASS.
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR LOOKOUT PASS ARE LOWER (2-4 INCHES) WITH SNOW
LEVELS RISING EARLIER IN THE EVENT. LOWLAND TRAVEL COULD ALSO
BE IMPACTED BY SNOW AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IMPACTS ARE FAR LESS CERTAIN
GIVEN EARLIER REASONING. THE THREAT FOR STEADY PRECIPITATION
WILL END THURSDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT
TIMES OVER THE PASSES, BUT WE ARE NOT SEEING THIS AS A MAJOR
WINTER STORM. THINGS COULD CHANGE SO BE SURE TO KEEP UP TO THE
DATE WITH THE LATEST INFORMATION.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND: UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INCREASES
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LOOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS
SUGGEST ANOTHER WAVE SWINGING INTO THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY BUT UNCERTAINTY IF THIS DIRECTLY IMPACTS WA OR SOUTH
INTO OR. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE
FOR A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO SET UP ALONG THE COAST AND
COLDER AIR TO MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE ROCKIES AND BLEED INTO THE
INLAND NW. THIS WOULD SUPPORT MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS. THE REMAINING ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ARE
NEARLY 180 DEGREES OUT OF PHASE WITH EITHER A TROUGH OFF THE
COAST AND A MILDER, SOUTHWEST FLOW / OR FLAT RIDGE IN PLACE
WHICH WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER WITH LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. 6-10 DAY OUTLOOKS FOR THE CPC SHOW THE STRONG SIGNAL
FOR THE COLD AIR IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GRADIENT OVER THE
INLAND NW TOWARD WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS OVER SW OREGON
INDICATIVE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY. SOMETHING TO CLOSELY MONITOR IN
THE COMING DAYS. /SB
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LIGHT FROM KMWH TO
KCOE. STRATUS WILL BRING A MIX OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL TEND TO BANK BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE
CASCADES WHERE IFR TO LOW IFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT KEAT/KEPH/KMWH TERMINALS. DRIER PUSH NORTH INTO THE SPOKANE-
COEUR D'ALENE CORRIDOR WILL RESULT IN HIGHER LEVEL STRATUS WITH
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED. STRATUS AT KGEG/KSFF/KCOE LOOKS TO
SCATTER OUT LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST AS WELL WITH MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS ALONG THE UPPER
LEVEL JET ORIENTED INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA.
.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KMWH AND
KEAT THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW STRATUS DID ERODE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A 50% CHANCE THAT THIS LOW
CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE WITH STRATUS BREAKING UP AT
THESE TERMINALS AS WELL, BUT LEANING ON PERSISTENCE WITHOUT MUCH
MECHANICAL MIXING FROM A PASSING SHORTWAVE EXPECTED. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE AT KGEG/KSFF/KCOE AS
HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AT LOWER LEVELS. /SVH
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 30 47 36 46 29 42 / 0 0 0 60 70 10
COEUR D'ALENE 33 48 37 47 32 42 / 0 0 10 60 90 30
PULLMAN 32 50 35 47 29 41 / 0 0 0 40 90 30
LEWISTON 35 53 38 52 36 49 / 0 0 0 20 80 20
COLVILLE 27 44 31 44 26 43 / 10 10 20 70 70 10
SANDPOINT 32 45 35 44 31 40 / 10 10 30 80 100 50
KELLOGG 35 50 39 47 32 38 / 0 0 10 60 100 60
MOSES LAKE 28 45 32 45 28 46 / 0 0 0 30 20 0
WENATCHEE 34 45 37 47 33 45 / 0 0 10 40 30 0
OMAK 34 43 36 45 29 42 / 0 0 0 30 30 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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