483
FXUS66 KOTX 232315
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
315 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW RETURNS TO THE MOUNTAIN PASSES SUNDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT.
- GUSTY WINDS WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.
- HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY FOR VALLEY SNOW POTENTIAL TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW ON THE MOUNTAIN PASSES.
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT, WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
SNOW AND LOWLAND RAIN CHANCES. GUSTY WINDS ALSO DEVELOP TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. SNOW WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MIDWEEK SYSTEMS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE LOWLANDS AND MODERATE SNOW OVER
THE MOUNTAINS BUT CARRIES HIGH UNCERTAINTY.
DISCUSSION
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON: THE BULK OF THE REMAINING
RAIN WITH A WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A MARGINAL
INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALIES (160 PERCENT TO NEARLY
200 PERCENT OF NORMAL) THERE AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. THE MOUNTAIN PASSES CAN EXPECT TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
AMOUNTS FROM THIS FRONT PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
(STEVENS: 2-3", WASHINGTON:
1-2", LOOKOUT: 2-4") AS WELL. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
THE LOWLANDS OF EASTERN WA AND NORTH IDAHO AS THE FRONT PASSES
AND COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10-20 MPH GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH ON THE
PALOUSE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON MONDAY BUT SLOWLY SUBSIDE IN THE EVENING HOURS AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS. LIGHT SNOW (SNOW LEVELS AROUND 2500')
WILL CONTINUE IN THE CASCADES AND IDAHO PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS
MONDAY WITH STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE LOWLANDS WILL
BE DRY MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. MONDAY WILL BE A GOOD
TRAVEL DAY. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 20S
TO LOW 30S AS DRIER AIR AND FAIRLY MINIMAL CLOUD COVER INITIALLY
WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. TUESDAY MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE A GOOD DAY FOR TRAVEL AHEAD OF
INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK RIDGE.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: THERE IS STILL A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOWLAND SNOW POTENTIAL IN THIS TIMEFRAME.
ONE COULD ARGUE THERE IS EVEN LESS CLARITY THAN YESTERDAY. MODELS
SHOW THE MOISTURE PLUME IS FURTHER SOUTH AND LOOKS TOO FAR DISPLACED
FROM THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY.
ENSEMBLES STILL INDICATE A SMALL POTENTIAL (5-25% CHANCE) FOR
LOWLAND SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING OF AT LEAST A DUSTING. THIS IS A
NOTABLE TREND DOWN FROM WHAT WAS SEEN EVEN YESTERDAY FOR THE
LOWLANDS.
MOUNTAIN PASS CHANCES OF 6+" 4 PM TUE - 4 PM WED:
STEVENS: 50%
WASHINGTON: 30%
SNOQUALMIE: 25%
LOOKOUT: 15%
AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE NORTHWESTERN US/SOUTHERN BC COAST (ALSO
LOW CONFIDENCE WHERE THIS ENDS UP) WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY,
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE INLAND. THIS ROUND OF POTENTIAL LOWLAND
SNOW IS STARTING TO LOOK MORE INTERESTING AS THE MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS HAVE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR OVERLAP. THERE IS STILL LARGE
DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH/POSITION OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AMONGST THE MODELS WHICH WILL BE A DETERMINING FACTOR FOR
WHERE WINTRY PRECIPITION IS AND HOW HEAVY IT COULD BE. OVERALL THE
MESSAGE REMAINS THE SAME... CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST
CLOSELY FROM TUESDAY TO THURSDAY.
FRIDAY ONWARD: ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND BUT THE MORE
NOTEWORTHY MENTION AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
CLUSTERS OF A VERY STRONG RIDGE FORMING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA, WHICH
WOULD FAVOR MUCH COOLER AIR THAN WHAT WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. /DB
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: VFR-MVFR CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
NORTH IDAHO BUT CIGS WILL DEGRADE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY IN FAR EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO.
KGEG-KSFF-KCOE-KPUW HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND IFR CIGS
(60-90% CHANCE) BETWEEN 2-13Z MON. THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
MONDAY MORNING WILL SCOUR OUT THE IFR CLOUD DECK BUT SOME
PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRING LOCALIZED MVFR VIS.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR KPUW GUSTING UP TO 30 KT AFTER 12Z
MON.
.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN WA AND NORTH IDAHO THIS
EVENING AND LAST UNTIL AROUND 13Z.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 33 43 25 40 31 38 / 70 30 0 0 50 60
COEUR D'ALENE 34 42 26 40 31 38 / 90 50 10 0 60 70
PULLMAN 33 41 25 40 31 38 / 100 50 10 0 60 70
LEWISTON 40 47 29 43 36 44 / 90 50 0 0 50 60
COLVILLE 29 45 21 39 24 38 / 60 40 0 0 60 50
SANDPOINT 33 41 25 38 29 38 / 90 60 20 10 60 70
KELLOGG 34 40 27 39 32 38 / 100 80 20 10 60 80
MOSES LAKE 30 48 24 40 31 39 / 40 0 0 0 50 50
WENATCHEE 34 47 29 40 33 38 / 20 0 0 10 60 50
OMAK 31 45 26 38 31 39 / 20 0 0 0 50 30
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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