259
FXUS66 KOTX 250930
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
130 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MOUNTAIN SNOW IMPACTING PASSES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY FOR VALLEY SNOW POTENTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ON THE MOUNTAIN PASSES.
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY BRING SNOW IMPACTS TO THE MOUNTAIN PASSES. THE MIDWEEK
SYSTEMS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE LOWLANDS AND
MODERATE SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT CARRIES HIGH UNCERTAINTY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: AFTER A QUIET START EARLY TODAY,
THE AREA BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AS A COUPLES FRONTAL WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUDS INCREASE EARLY TODAY FROM THE WEST AS A
WARM FRONT NOSES IN FROM THE WEST. THAT WARM FRONT WILL INCREASE
PRECIPITATION FROM THE CASCADES INTO CENTRAL WA THROUGH THE
MORNING TO MIDDAY HOURS, ENVELOPING EASTERN WA AND ID THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY THAT
POTENTIAL STARTS TO BRIEFLY SHIFT AWAY FROM CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WA, FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHEAST WA AND ID PANHANDLE IN THE MORNING
AND WANING. THEN A MORE ORGANIZED TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
PACIFIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, EXPANDING PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE AREA AGAIN WITH THE BEST CHANCES RETURNING
OVERNIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. CHANCE REMAIN HIGH INTO THURSDAY
EVENING, BEFORE STARTING TO WANE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
THE BIGGEST QUESTIONS SURROUND PRECIPITATION-TYPE AND AMOUNTS.
LOOKING AT THE HREF PRECIPITATION-TYPE PROBABILITIES AND NBM SNOW
LEVELS AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SURFACE AND WET-BULB TEMPERATURES
AND THE FACT COLDER AIR TENDS TO GET TRAPPED NEAR THE CASCADES, ON
TUESDAY THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE NEAR THE CASCADES EAST
TOWARD THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU STRETCHING TO NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO
START. RAIN POTENTIAL SPREADS ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN TOWARD THE
SPOKANE/CDA AREA AND PALOUSE, BUT AS THE AFTERNOON TRANSITIONS TO
EVENING THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW BECOMES
MORE LIKELY, UNTIL LATER EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT THAT THE
RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL RAIN BECOMES MORE LIKELY. MEANWHILE ALL SNOW
IS MORE LIKELY HEADING INTO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS. THEN
HEADING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY SNOW LEVELS RISE TO AROUND
3-6KFT AND FURTHER RISE TO AROUND 4 TO 6KFT THURSDAY AS THE DEEPER
SYSTEM MOVES IN AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.
WHAT DOES THIS TRANSLATE TO FOR SNOW AMOUNTS? FIRST FOR TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS STILL FORECAST
AROUND THE CASCADES, INCLUDING ESPECIALLY STEVENS (AND SNOQUALMIE)
PASS. THIS STARTS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING BUT THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR MORE MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS DEVELOPS BETWEEN 10 AM TO 10 PM,
BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SNOW RATES COULD
APPROACH 1 INCH PER HOUR THIS EVENING (ABOUT 2 PM TO 9 PM) PER THE
HREF WHICH SHOW ABOUT 40-60% CHANCE OF THAT. INTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR CHELAN COUNTY, WHERE 2-4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED BELOW ABOUT 4KFT AND ABOUT 4 TO 9 MAY FALL ABOVE 4KFT,
LOCALLY HIGHER POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. OTHER SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE OTHER MOUNTAIN PASSES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, WITH
AMOUNTS MARGINAL FOR HIGHLIGHTS AROUND PLACE LIKE LOOKOUT PASS.
AROUND 2-4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE OTHER NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN ZONES COULD SEE 0.2 TO 1 INCHES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS,
WITH 2 TO 4 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SIMILAR COULD BE FOUND IN
THE BLUES AND HIGHER CAMAS PRAIRIE. AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS ZONES,
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE AROUND THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU,
THE NORTHERN COLUMBIA BASIN ALONG THE US-2 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE
SPOKANE/CDA AREA AND HIGHER PALOUSE. THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU COULD
SEE 0.5 TO 2 INCHES, LOCALLY HIGHER OVER WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY.
TOWARD THE SPOKANE/KOOTENAI COUNTY BORDER AND IDAHO PALOUSE 0.5
TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THE REST OF THE SPOKANE AREA AND
HIGHER WASHINGTON PALOUSE COULD SEE 0.1 TO 0.7 INCHES, HIGHEST
NEAR TO WEST OF AIRWAY HEIGHTS. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, SUCH AS
DOWNTOWN SPOKANE AND SPOKANE VALLEY MAY NOT ACCUMULATE ANYTHING.
OVERALL THERE WILL BE A WIDE-RANGE OF SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CWA
WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
LARGELY BE IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY LINGER
NEAR STEVENS AND SNOQUALMIE PASS AND LOOKOUT PASS, BUT THE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW LIFTS TOWARD WASHINGTON AND SHERMAN
WHERE 3 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE RAIN AMOUNTS AROUND
0.20 TO 0.50 INCHES ARE IN THE FORECAST IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
SO IT IS TENDING TO LOOK LIKE A WET THANKSGIVING.
HIGHS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S, WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S AND 30S.
FRIDAY TO MONDAY: MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD, WITH MORE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND POTENTIAL FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE CLUSTERS OF A VERY STRONG RIDGE FORMING IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA, WHICH WOULD FAVOR MUCH COOLER AIR THAN WHAT WE
HAVE RECENTLY SEEN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD IN ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN STARTS TO DECLINE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE BEST POTENTIAL IN THIS SET-UP OVERALL WILL BE AROUND THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. THIS WOULD INCLUDE
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL RAIN FRIDAY AND MAINLY
SNOW BY SATURDAY. SOME MODERATE SNOW IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH MAYBE 1 TO 2 INCHES
EVERY 24 HOURS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S
FRIDAY, MOSTLY 30S SATURDAY AND MOSTLY 30S HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. /SOLVEIG
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME BRIEF LOW LEVEL STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH A SURFACE
INVERSION WITH MVFR CEILINGS FOR GEG-SFF-COE. PATCHY FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE ON IMPACTING TAF SITES IS LOW. AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
WEST TO EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BRINGING IFR-MVFR
CONDITIONS.
.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MODERATE
CONFIDENCE MVFR CEILINGS FOR GEG-SFF-COE OVERNIGHT. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON FOG IMPACTS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
IFR- MVFR CONDITIONS WITH INCOMING WARM FRONT AND INCREASING
RAIN AND SNOW.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 39 33 41 36 42 32 / 30 90 50 70 90 80
COEUR D'ALENE 39 33 41 36 42 34 / 30 90 70 70 90 90
PULLMAN 39 32 41 36 44 35 / 30 100 80 80 80 90
LEWISTON 44 39 46 40 49 40 / 30 90 60 60 60 80
COLVILLE 38 26 40 29 40 27 / 40 80 40 60 90 80
SANDPOINT 38 30 39 32 39 31 / 30 90 70 70 90 100
KELLOGG 39 34 41 38 43 36 / 30 100 90 80 100 100
MOSES LAKE 39 33 41 36 43 30 / 60 90 30 70 70 40
WENATCHEE 38 33 40 37 41 34 / 80 90 30 80 70 60
OMAK 38 31 41 34 41 31 / 50 60 10 50 80 40
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL CHELAN COUNTY-WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY.
ID...NONE.
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