247
FXUS66 KOTX 260810
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1210 AM PST WED NOV 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MOUNTAIN SNOW IMPACTING PASSES INTO FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOW
COMING IN TONIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER WEEKEND.
SYNOPSIS
PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES RESULTING
IN MINOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL. A DRY, COLD AIR PUSH WILL BRING
COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY: ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. THE WEATHER SYSTEM YESTERDAY EVENING WILL BE
PUSHING THROUGH THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL BE EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH DRIER DOWNSLOPING WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHUTTING OFF
THE PRECIPITATION IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE PANHANDLE FOR THIS
MORNING, BUT THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DRIES OUT QUICKLY AND
THIS WILL QUICKLY LEAD TO A DECREASE IN SNOW FOR EVEN FOR THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
CASCADES OUT THROUGH 4AM AND OUT THROUGH 10AM IN THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE
NEEDED AT THIS HOUR.
THEN A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE A WARM FRONT PUSHES ACROSS TONIGHT. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER WITH THIS NEXT FRONT. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN. THE
FOCUS OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE CASCADES AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE SLOWER TO
COME UP ACROSS THESE ZONES WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE VALLEYS. FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH, ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL
BE IN THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL WE SEE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEP
ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. EVEN THEN, TEMPERATURES AND SNOW LEVELS
WILL TAKE TIME TO DROP WITH RAIN SWITCHING BACK TO SNOW FOR
THESE NORTHERN VALLEYS RIGHT AT THE TAIL END OF THE
PRECIPITATION. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE FOR WINTER TRAVEL OVER THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES. STEVENS PASS IS EXPECTED TO SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2
TO 5 INCHES, WASHINGTON PASS AN ADDITIONAL 5 TO 9 INCHES,
SHERMAN PASS AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES, AND LOOKOUT PASS AN
ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES. ENOUGH TO BE A NUISANCE AND WILL MAKE
TRAVEL SLICK FOR ANYONE LOOKING TO TRAVEL ON THANKSGIVING INTO
EARLY THE NEXT DAY. LOOKOUT PASS WILL START AT AS RAIN AND THEN
SEE A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW THANKSGIVING NIGHT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL BE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND TROUGHING OVER
THE ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL PLACE THE INLAND NORTHWEST
UNDER A DRIER AND COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN. THIS ISN'T TO SAY
THAT IT WILL BE COMPLETELY DRY AS MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME WEAK
DISTURBANCES DROPPING DOWN. ONE LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE ISN'T A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND MAY
JUST BRING SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO COME OVER THE WEEKEND AROUND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW
MUCH WE COULD GET WITH THIS, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER
AND SNOW LEVELS MORE LIKELY TO BE AT VALLEY FLOORS. TIMING LOOKS
TO BE MAINLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE UNCERTAIN WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE. SOMETHING TO WATCH OUT FOR FOR MINOR
IMPACTS TO THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE AS WE APPROACH NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES COOL TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN SEE
A SLIGHT INCREASE TO AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER EARLY NEXT
WEEK. /SVH
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: A WARM FRONT SPREADING ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST WILL
BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO AIRPORTS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. IFR TO LOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW IS EXPECTED
IN THE CASCADES, INCLUDING AT KEAT. THEN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR
THE SPOKANE/COEUR D'ALENE CORRIDOR WITH IFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER FOR KGEG/KSFF/KCOE LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MILDER TEMPERATURES AT KPUW AND KLWS WILL RESULT
IN RAIN AT THESE TERMINALS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 9-
12Z ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON AND THEN INTO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE
AFTER 12Z. DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN
END TO THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN, BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE IDAHO PANHANDLE INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW CEILINGS WITH IFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EVEN AS
PRECIPITAITON ENDS WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE.
.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
IFR TO LOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AT KEAT/KMWH
KGEG/KSFF/COE. THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIFT GRADUALLY INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY 21Z. THE EXCEPTION IS KGEG WHERE
THERE IS A 50% CHANCE FOR CEILINGS TO REMAIN BELOW 1,000 FT AGL. /SVH
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 40 35 42 35 42 25 / 20 40 90 90 40 10
COEUR D'ALENE 40 35 41 35 40 25 / 40 50 90 90 60 20
PULLMAN 41 37 45 36 40 27 / 50 50 70 90 80 30
LEWISTON 47 40 49 41 45 33 / 40 50 40 80 80 20
COLVILLE 40 27 38 27 42 20 / 0 30 90 90 30 10
SANDPOINT 39 31 38 31 38 22 / 50 40 90 100 70 20
KELLOGG 40 37 44 36 39 23 / 70 60 90 100 90 30
MOSES LAKE 42 37 43 34 46 27 / 0 40 80 60 20 10
WENATCHEE 39 36 40 36 43 30 / 10 60 80 80 20 10
OMAK 40 33 39 32 42 26 / 0 40 90 60 10 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
CENTRAL CHELAN COUNTY-WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY.
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS.
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