750
FXUS66 KOTX 081915
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1115 AM PST MON DEC 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES.
- HEAVY MOUNTAIN RAIN WILL BRING A RISK FOR FLOODING IN THE
CASCADES AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE, ESPECIALLY IN STEEP AREAS
AND NEAR BURN SCARS.
SYNOPSIS
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.
A SERIES OF WARM AND WET WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS
OF HEAVY MOUNTAIN RAIN, LOWLAND RAIN, HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND
GUSTY WINDS. WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW: A FIRST IN A SERIES OF ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. WITH WARM AND
MOIST AIR MOVING IN, PWATS WILL RISE TO 200-250% OF NORMAL BY
TOMORROW MORNING. THIS FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION HAS SNOW LEVELS
AROUND 3000-5000 FEET, MEANING MOST MID AND LOW ELEVATION AREAS WILL
SEE RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WILL TOTAL A FEW INCHES, WITH MINOR IMPACTS
EXPECTED ALONG MOUNTAIN PASSES. STEVENS PASS HAS A 65% CHANCE OF 2
INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE, WHILE BLEWETT PASS HAS A 10% CHANCE FOR
THOSE SAME TOTALS. BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, NBM PROBABILITIES OF
24-HOUR RAINFALL GIVE SPOKANE, CDA, DEER PARK, SANDPOINT, AND
PULLMAN A 60-80% CHANCE OF 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN. DUE TO SNOW LEVELS
BEING SO HIGH AND MID TO LOW ELEVATION SNOWMELT OCCURRING, MAIN
IMPACTS FROM PRECIPITATION WILL BE HYDROLOGICAL IN NATURE. RIVERS
AND STREAMS COULD SEE AN UPTICK IN STREAMFLOW, WITH STEHEKIN
RIVER NEARING ACTION STAGE BY TOMORROW MORNING. ANOTHER
HYDROLOGICAL IMPACT WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR MUD AND
ROCKSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN STEEP TERRAIN AND IN OR AROUND ANY
BURN SCARS. DUE TO THIS IMPACT, A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR CHELAN COUNTY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
WIND GUSTS: AS A SURFACE LOW DROPS INTO MONTANA, THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE OF WASHINGTON WILL INCREASE,
LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
BASIN AND PALOUSE WILL SEE THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS, WITH
SPOKANE, PULLMAN, MOSES LAKE, AND RITZVILLE SEEING A 50-60%
CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS 40 MPH OR HIGHER. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND EASTERN WASHINGTON,
AND IS VALID THROUGH 7AM ON TUESDAY. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL
BE SEEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MAIN IMPACTS
THAT COULD BE SEEN ARE BLOWING OBJECTS, DAMAGE TO TREES AND
BRANCHES, AND DIFFICULTY DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY: TUESDAY WILL HAVE A SMALL BREAK
IN PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY BEFORE THE SECOND ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
IMPACTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PWATS REMAIN
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH, WITH A RISE IN SOME AREAS TO 250-300% OF NORMAL.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER WITH THIS STORM, STARTING AT AROUND 4000
FEET AND RISING STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE EVENT TO 5000-7000 FEET.
SNOWFALL DURING THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVIER THAN THE FIRST.
THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL FALL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MORE
MOUNTAIN PASSES HAVE A CHANCE AT SEEING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.
BLEWETT, LOOKOUT, AND STEVENS PASSES HAVE A 15-25% CHANCE OF SEEING
TWO INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE, AND SHERMAN PASS HAS A 55% CHANCE OF
SEEING THOSE SNOW TOTALS. WITH THIS SECOND SURGE OF RAIN, HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ALONG RIVERS AND STREAMS BECOME EVEN MORE LIKELY. A
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TWO RIVER FORECAST POINTS IN
IDAHO THAT ARE FORECAST TO SEE IMPACTS DUE TO STREAMFLOW RISES. THE
COEUR D'ALENE RIVER AT CATALDO FORECAST POINT WILL REACH MINOR FLOOD
STAGE AT 43.50 FEET, AND PARADISE CREEK AT MOSCOW WILL REACH ACTION
STAGE AT 8.5 FEET. BY THURSDAY MORNING, MUCH OF THE BASIN HAS A 50-
60% CHANCE AND ABOVE OF 72-HR RAINFALL TOTALS NEAR 0.75 INCHES.
MOUNTAIN AREAS AND FOOTHILLS HAVE A 60-90% CHANCE OF SEEING AN INCH
OR MORE OF RAIN BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HAVE RELAXED BY THIS SECOND SYSTEM, SO
WINDS WILL HAVE DECREASED. BASIN AND PALOUSE AREAS REMAIN BREEZY
WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH ON TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL DECREASE DOWN TO 10-
15 MPH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS DECREASE IN GUSTS, CHANCES FOR
WIND HEADLINES DURING THIS TIME ARE DECREASING.
BY NEXT WEEKEND, CLUSTERS STILL SHOW A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE PATTERN,
PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE EXTREME FORECAST INDEX SHOWS VERY
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH QPF VALUES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE WARMTH OF THE MOISTURE
MOVING IN. THE LOWLANDS WILL GET A BIT OF A BREAK FROM
PRECIPITATION. RIGHT NOW, ALL CLUSTERS SHOW HIGHER HEIGHTS MOVING
INTO THE AREA, AND ROUGHLY A QUARTER OF CLUSTERS SHOW A BIT OF
DISAGREEMENT IN THE LOCATION OF THESE HEIGHTS. THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER'S 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES CONTINUED
INCREASED CHANCES OF HIGHER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION. LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW CHANCES FOR ANOTHER WARM, WET
ACTIVE PATTERN MOVING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO STAY TUNED.
/AS
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO AIRPORTS ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST TODAY.
THE REGION WILL BE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND
THIS TENDS TO KEEP CEILINGS UP A BIT WITH PREDOMINANTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS ANTICPATED. RAIN INTENSITY WILL BE MODERATE AT TIMES
THOUGH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST WA INTO THE IDHAO
PANHANDLE AND THIS WILL REDUCE SURFACE VISIBILITY TO BETWEEN 3-6 SM
WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES FOR KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW. THEN THE
WINDS BECOME MORE OF A FACTOR FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EASTERN WASHINGTON BY 00-02Z WITH PRECIP
DECREASING. THE REGION WILL STILL BE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN
00-09Z BEFORE WE SEE THE COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS BETWEEN 09-13Z.
WINDS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND/OR GUSTY AT TIMES UP TO 30-35 KTS AT THE
SURFACE. TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL SEE WESTERLY WINDS UP TO 45-50
KTS UP TO 2 KFT AGL. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL THEN SEE THOSE STRONGER
WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW WITH PRECIPITATION TODAY AND
A 30-50% CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS (MOST LIKELY OCCURRING WITH
MODERATE RAINFALL). HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40
KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM PULLMAN TO SPOKANE (KPUW/KGEG/KSFF/KCOE)
AFTER 00Z AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 KTS BETWEEN 05-12Z. /SVH
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 50 42 49 39 50 41 / 90 80 50 90 80 60
COEUR D'ALENE 49 42 48 38 49 42 / 100 100 60 100 90 70
PULLMAN 50 43 49 41 52 45 / 90 90 90 100 90 80
LEWISTON 54 49 55 46 58 51 / 90 90 90 100 90 70
COLVILLE 46 34 45 33 44 33 / 90 80 30 90 70 50
SANDPOINT 46 38 46 35 44 38 / 100 100 50 100 100 80
KELLOGG 47 41 46 38 48 42 / 100 100 80 100 100 90
MOSES LAKE 53 43 49 40 54 41 / 70 50 60 90 60 40
WENATCHEE 50 41 48 40 51 41 / 90 80 60 90 80 60
OMAK 46 35 45 35 44 35 / 80 70 20 90 60 50
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
LOWER GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-
SPOKANE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-WASHINGTON PALOUSE.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL CHELAN COUNTY-
WENATCHEE AREA-WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY.
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS-COEUR D'ALENE AREA-IDAHO
PALOUSE-LEWISTON AREA-NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page