807
FXUS66 KOTX 090645
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1045 PM PST MON DEC 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING MAY RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES.
- HEAVY MOUNTAIN RAIN WILL BRING A RISK FOR FLOODING IN THE
CASCADES AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE, ESPECIALLY IN STEEP AREAS
AND NEAR BURN SCARS.
UPDATE
THE FIRST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS BRINGING STEADY RAINS TO THE
CASCADES AND ID PANHANDLE AS FORECAST. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS,
AND THE NEW 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
A SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHADOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
FROM OMAK SOUTH TO EPHRATA EASTWARD TO NEAR THE WA/ID BORDER.
THIS IS DUE TO STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE CASCADES. THUS
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER POP'S FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN WA.
BESIDES HEAVY RAIN IN THE CASCADES, WHICH WILL BE DECREASING
OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH, WINDS
REMAIN A CONCERN. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH, WITH
WIND ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW VERY STRONG WINDS AT 850MB OF AROUND 55-65 KTS BETWEEN 9
PM - 2 AM. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REFLECT
THESE HIGHER WINDS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MIXING DOWN EXCEPT IN
A LOCALIZED BASIS. WE HAVE ALREADY HAD A FEW REPORTS OF SMALL
BRANCHES COMING OFF TREES IN SPOKANE AND NEAR PLUMMER WITH 35-45
MPH WIND GUSTS. SOME DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS PICK UP MORE. HIGH WIND GUSTS (58
MPH OR GREATER) ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE
BUT SOMETHING WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. JW
SYNOPSIS
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.
A SERIES OF WARM AND WET WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS
OF HEAVY MOUNTAIN RAIN, LOWLAND RAIN, HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND
GUSTY WINDS. WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES.
DISCUSSION
STRONG LONG DURATION ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT TO BRING POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING, ROCK/MUD SLIDES THROUGH THURSDAY, AS WELL AS GUSTY
WINDS TONIGHT...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: THE FIRST WAVE OF TWO SEPARATE AR EVENTS
IS ONGOING TODAY. A WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND NOW INTO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AT 2:30 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITAITON INTENSITY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION HAS BEEN LIGHT
TO MODERATE WITH HEAVIER INTENSITY BEING OBSERVED CLOSER TO THE
CASCADE CREST. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITAITON FOR TONIGHT WILL
LARGELY REMAIN NOW AT THE CASCADE CREST AND IN THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE. THE CASCADE CREST WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1.5 TO 3.0
INCHES AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER PLUS
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PANHANDLE
WILL MORE LIKELY SEE UPWARDS OF AN ADDITIONAL HALF OF AN INCH
WITH MOUNTAINS MORE LIKELY TO RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THAT WILL
LARGELY FALL AS RAIN OVER THE CASCADES WILL BE FOR ROCK/MUD
SLIDES, ESPECIALLY SO IN STEEP TERRAIN AND NEAR NEWER BURN SCARS
INCLUDING THE PIONEER ABOVE STEHEKIN, SUGARLOAF, AND LABOR
MOUNTAIN BURN SCARS. A FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
CHELAN COUNTY AND WE HAVE ACTUALLY EXTENDED THIS FLOOD WATCH TO
INCLUDE THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS WELL.
A POTENTIALLY MORE IMPACTFUL HAZARD WILL BE WINDS MIXING DOWN LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WITH 50-60 MPH WINDS UP AROUND 2,000 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL. WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY COMES IS HOW EFFECTIVELY WILL WE
BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN THESE WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR. TYPICALLY THIS
IS DIFFICULT TO DO TO ITS FULLEST POTENTIAL. THE SURFACE GRADIENT
ISN'T NECESSARILY SIGNIFICANT TO THE POINT OF WHAT WE WOULD
EXPECT TO ACHIEVE HIGH WIND CRITERIA (SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 40+
MPH AND/OR GUSTS 58+ MPH). THE GEFS IS ON THE HIGHER END WHEN
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE GEFS IS PROGGED TO
HAVE A MSLP OF NEAR 16 MB BETWEEN PORTLAND, OR AND GLACIER, MT,
WHEREAS THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MORE AROUND 12 MB. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HOW STRONG WINDS MAY
ACTUALLY GET. THE HREF MEAN WIND GUIDANCE IS IN LINE WITH WHAT
OUR FORECAST HAS BEEN PORTRAYING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE
25-35 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND GUSTS UP TO 50-55
MPH. THIS IS IN THE HIGH END RANGE FOR A WIND ADVISORY. IT'S
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE, IF NOT PROBABLE, THAT WE WILL SEE ISOLATED
SPOTS THAT MEET HIGH WIND CRITERIA. AN ADDITIONAL FACTOR TO
CONSIDER IS SOILS BEING FAIRLY SATURATED AND THIS MAY LEAD TO
MORE DOWNED TREES THAN WHAT WE TYPICALLY WOULD EXPECT WITH WINDS
OF THIS MAGNITUDE.
BY TUESDAY, WE SEE THE NEXT AR MOVE INTO THE REGION, AND THIS ONE
WILL BE SIMILAR IN MAGNITUDE AS TODAY'S AND ALSO BE A BIT LONGER IN
DURATION ON THE ORDER OF 36-48 HOURS. THE PEAK OF THE AR EVENT WILL
BE THE FIRST 24 HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND THEN SEE
PRECIPITATION RATES COME DOWN A BIT FOR THE LATTER HALF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THIS NEXT ROUND COMING ON THE HEELS OF
A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER THE CASCADES AND IDAHO PANHANDLE WILL
BE ONE TO WATCH FOR HYDROLOGY RELATED IMPACTS. AN AREA OF CONCERN IN
ADDITION TO CHELAN COUNTY WILL BE THE HEADWATERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS AND DRAINAGES DOWNSTREAM. THIS INCLUDES THE
COEUR D'ALENE RIVER, ST. JOE RIVER, AND, TO A LESSER EXTENT,
PARADISE CREEK. RAINFALL WITH THIS NEXT AR WILL RANGE FROM AROUND AN
INCH TO AS MUCH AS 3+ INCHES IN THE IDAHO PANHANDLE WITH HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS BEING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IN COMBINATION WITH SNOWMELT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
RAPID RISES TO RIVERS, SMALL STREAMS, AND CREEKS. MINOR FLOODING
IS FORECAST ALONG THE COEUR D'ALENE RIVER, AND I WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF THE ST. JOE RIVER SEES FLOODING IMPACTS AS WELL. A
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IF YOU'RE
IN A LOW LYING AREA, OR ALONG A STRETCH OF THE RIVER, SMALL
STREAM, OR CREEK TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT PROPERTY FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF FLOODING. STEEP TERRAIN WILL ALSO BE PRONE TO
MUD/ROCK SLIDES AS WELL. THIS SECOND AR WILL CONTINUE TO POUND
THE CASCADES WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN AS WELL. WE WILL HAVE A GOOD
IDEA OF HOW BURN SCARS RESPONDED TO THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN
TOMORROW. THOSE TRAVELING ALONG HIGHWAY 97 OVER BLEWETT PASS
SHOULD BE ADVISED THAT THERE MAY BE SOME DEBRIS THAT COMES OUT
ON THE ROAD WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF SOAKING RAIN ON THE LABOR
MOUNTAIN BURN SCAR.
THESE AR EVENTS WILL MAINLY BRING IMPACTS DUE TO RAIN AND MELTING
SNOW, BUT THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE TONIGHT WILL SEE SNOW LEVELS LOWER
THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE OVER STEVENS PASS AND LOOKOUT PASS.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1-3 INCHES. THAT WILL
BE THE CASE AT STEVENS PASS ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT AND THEN ALSO A COUPLE OF INCHES OR SO EXPECTED AS SNOW
TRANSITIONS BACK TO RAIN WITH THE SECOND AR EVENT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: WEATHER TURNS MORE BENIGN AT THE END
OF THE WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE RIDGE LOOKS TRANSITORY THOUGH AND MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
INDICATE A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER,
THE RIDGE WILL GIVE A REPRIEVE TO THE WET WEATHER ON FRIDAY AT
LEAST AND ALLOW LEVELS ON RIVERS AND STREAMS TO DECREASE.
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND WON'T BE NEARLY OF THE SCALE AS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD WITH ANY SNOW
REMAINING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. /SVH
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT LINGERS ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AT KPUW/KGEG/KSFF/KCOE WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35-45 KTS. AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL FOCUS RAIN
OVER THE CASCADES AND ID PANHANDLE, AND BRIEFLY AROUND KPUW FROM
9-14Z TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH. THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE CASCADES TO DRY OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER,
WITH VFR CONDITIONS FAVORED FOR THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. BUT THEN ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN MOVES IN TUESDAY EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
LIFTS NORTH AGAIN, WITH WIDESPREAD CIGS OF MVFR EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP, LOCALLY TO IFR.
.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FROM PULLMAN TO SPOKANE (KPUW/KGEG/KSFF/KCOE) THROUGH 12Z. LOW
CONFIDENCE OF GUSTS REACHING 50 KTS, BUT BRIEF LOCALIZED GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE. JW
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 42 49 39 53 45 51 / 20 30 100 80 70 60
COEUR D'ALENE 42 47 38 51 45 49 / 70 40 100 90 80 70
PULLMAN 44 49 41 54 47 52 / 80 80 100 90 80 80
LEWISTON 50 55 46 60 54 57 / 30 80 100 80 70 60
COLVILLE 35 45 32 47 35 46 / 20 10 100 70 60 50
SANDPOINT 39 45 35 46 41 46 / 80 30 100 100 80 70
KELLOGG 40 46 38 50 46 49 / 100 80 100 100 90 90
MOSES LAKE 42 49 41 57 44 55 / 10 50 90 50 40 40
WENATCHEE 40 47 41 54 43 52 / 80 50 100 70 60 60
OMAK 35 44 36 48 36 46 / 30 10 100 60 50 40
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL CHELAN
COUNTY-WENATCHEE AREA-WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST TUESDAY FOR LOWER GARFIELD AND
ASOTIN COUNTIES-NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-SPOKANE AREA-UPPER
COLUMBIA BASIN-WASHINGTON PALOUSE.
ID...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL PANHANDLE
MOUNTAINS-COEUR D'ALENE AREA-IDAHO PALOUSE-NORTHERN
PANHANDLE.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL PANHANDLE
MOUNTAINS-COEUR D'ALENE AREA-IDAHO PALOUSE-LEWISTON AREA-
NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
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