423
FXUS66 KOTX 091912
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1112 AM PST TUE DEC 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DECREASING WINDS TUESDAY MORNING.
- HEAVY MOUNTAIN RAIN WILL BRING A RISK FOR FLOODING IN THE
CASCADES AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE, ESPECIALLY IN STEEP AREAS
AND NEAR BURN SCARS.
SYNOPSIS
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.
A SERIES OF WARM AND WET WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS
OF HEAVY MOUNTAIN RAIN, LOWLAND RAIN, HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND
GUSTY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
...STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIVER RIVER EVENT RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING, AS WELL AS ROCK AND MUD
SLIDES IN THE CASCADES AND IDAHO PANHANDLE...
TODAY: THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STEADY RAINS AND
WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO
OREGON TODAY, BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALLOW CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT, ALONG WITH A RAPID DECREASE IN WINDS
BETWEEN THE EARLY TO LATE MORNING HOURS AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
RELAX. SIGNIFICANT RAINS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS ALONG WITH SNOW
MELT IN THE CASCADES AND ID PANHANDLE WILL LEAD TO CONTINUE RISES
ON AREA RIVERS, WHILE SMALL STREAMS ARE LIKELY TO FALL WITH THE
BREAK IN THE RAIN.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: THE NEXT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER LIFTS
NORTH AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 250-300% OF NORMAL.
AN INITIAL WARM FRONT WILL HELP PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
INITIALLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT AFTER THE FRONT PASSES, RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MAINLY FOCUSED AGAIN OVER THE CASCADES AND ID
PANHANDLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS STRONG DOWNSLOPE FOR OFF
THE CASCADES DOMINATES ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WASHINGTON.
SNOW LEVELS AT THE ONSET WILL RANGE FROM 3500-4500 FEET ALLOWING
FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW TO INITIALLY FALL TUESDAY EVENING WITH 2-4
INCHES OF WET SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES INCLUDING STEVENS,
LOUP LOUP, AND SHERMAN. LIGHTER AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR LOOKOUT PASS. SNOW LEVELS RAPIDLY RISE TO 7000-9000
FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, AIMED AT THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CASCADES INTO THE ID
PANHANDLE PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THE ECMWF, GFS, AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLES ARE PRODUCING ANOTHER 3-6 INCHES OF RAIN IN WESTERN
CHELAN COUNTY, WITH UP TO 6-10 INCHES ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. FOR
THE ID PANHANDLE 1-4 INCHES IS FORECAST. THIS COMBINED WITH SNOW
MELT WILL LEAD TO SHARP RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. IN THE
CASCADES RIVER RISES WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THE STEHEKIN,
WENATCHEE, AND ENTIAT RIVERS AS WELL AS THE SMALL STREAMS. FOR THE
ID PANHANDLE THE ST JOE AND COEUR D'ALENE RIVERS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERN AS WELL AS SMALL STREAMS. ANOTHER CONCERN FOR THE CASCADES
WILL BE ROCK/MUD SLIDES, ESPECIALLY SO IN STEEP TERRAIN AND NEAR
NEWER BURN SCARS INCLUDING THE PIONEER ABOVE STEHEKIN, SUGARLOAF,
AND LABOR MOUNTAIN BURN SCARS. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR CHELAN, BENEWAH, KOOTENAI, AND
SHOSHONE COUNTIES.
ANOTHER STORY WILL BE THE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER BRINGS AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS, WITH VERY
MILD 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 5-9C. THIS MAY ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO REACH THE MID 50S TO MID 60S OVER MUCH OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN,
AND DOWN INTO THE LC VALLEY, WHICH WOULD BE NEAR RECORDS FOR
WEDNESDAY. AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER
30S AND 40S, EXCEPT MID 50S FOR THE LC VALLEY. THESE TEMPERATURES
ARE AS MUCH AS 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER LIFTS NORTH
AND WEAKENS HEADING INTO FRIDAY BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW LINGERS IN THE CASCADES AND ID PANHANDLE FOR MORE
PRECIPITATION BUT WITH DECREASING INTENSITY. SNOW LEVELS ALSO
COME DOWN A BIT, BUT STILL HIGH AROUND 4000-6000 FEET. ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ENSEMBLES SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
MOVING IN AS MOIST PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME AROUND 175-200% OF
NORMAL TAKES AIM AT THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS
IS LIKELY TO BE ANOTHER MILD SYSTEM WITH RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN
SNOW, BUT AMOUNTS LOOKS MUCH LESS COMPARED TO THOSE THIS WEEK.
JW
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: THE INLAND NORTHWEST WILL BE IN A LITTLE LULL THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENTS. EXPECT VFR
TODAY THROUGH 00Z. A WARM FRONT WITH A STRONG PLUME OF MOISTURE
WILL THEN LIFT TONIGHT OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION AT AIRPORTS WITH DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS AND LOWERING CEILINGS. THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL ALSO
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR PARTICULARLY AT KPUW BY 06Z INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT
MODERATE RAINFALL INTENSITY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT THAT WILL LOWER
SURFACE VISIBILITY WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN 06-13Z OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE PICKING UP
BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS INCREASING
TO BETWEEN 30-40 KTS ON THE PALOUSE TO THE SPOKANE AREA.
.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON VFR CONDITONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE
IS ALSO HIGH ON MVFR AND AT LEAST ISOLATED/TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS
AS RAIN INCREASES TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN TRENDING
STRONGER WITH WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND MAY SEE A TREND TOWARD
HIGHER GUSTS AT LEAST BETWEEN KPUW AND KGEG WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF
UPDATES. /SVH
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 49 39 53 47 52 42 / 10 100 60 70 60 30
COEUR D'ALENE 48 38 53 47 51 42 / 20 100 90 90 80 50
PULLMAN 50 40 55 49 52 46 / 70 100 70 60 80 50
LEWISTON 56 46 62 54 60 50 / 70 100 40 50 60 40
COLVILLE 48 32 47 37 47 32 / 10 100 50 70 60 30
SANDPOINT 47 34 48 44 48 37 / 30 100 90 90 90 50
KELLOGG 49 37 51 47 49 44 / 80 100 100 90 90 70
MOSES LAKE 52 40 58 47 56 40 / 30 90 20 40 40 10
WENATCHEE 49 39 55 45 52 43 / 30 100 60 70 60 20
OMAK 47 36 47 38 47 35 / 10 100 40 60 50 20
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL CHELAN
COUNTY-WENATCHEE AREA-WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR LOWER GARFIELD
AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-SPOKANE AREA-
UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-WASHINGTON PALOUSE.
ID...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL PANHANDLE
MOUNTAINS-COEUR D'ALENE AREA-IDAHO PALOUSE-NORTHERN
PANHANDLE.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS-COEUR D'ALENE AREA-IDAHO PALOUSE-
LEWISTON AREA-NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
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