742
FXUS66 KOTX 110804
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1204 AM PST THU DEC 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND SNOW MELT WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED LOW LYING FLOODING
IN THE CASCADES INTO THURSDAY ALONG WITH MUD AND ROCKSLIDES
IN STEEP TERRAIN
- SMALL STREAM FLOODING FOR BONNER, SHOSHONE, KOOTENAI, AND
BENEWAH COUNTIES EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY DUE TO RAIN AND SNOW
MELT.
- STRONG WINDS DECREASING THIS MORNING
SYNOPSIS
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WHILE AREAS OF
RAIN LINGER. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK. A
WEAK SYSTEM MOVES IN SUNDAY BRINGING LIGHT RAIN THE MOUNTAINS.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND HIGH
MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY BEFORE SNOW LEVELS BEGIN TO DECREASE BY THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
...RAIN AND SNOW MELT CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH FLOODING IN THE
CASCADES AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE IDAHO PANHANDLE...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL
THE WIND, RAIN, AND SNOW MELT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL
SLOWLY LOSE ITS GRIP OVER THE INLAND NW THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHERN WA/NORTH ID PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING DOWN INTO SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND THE SOUTH ID
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CASCADES AND
NORTHERN ID PANHANDLE TO SEE RAIN DECREASE HEADING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WHILE RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS SE WASHINGTON. YET THE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WIND COMPONENTS DECREASES THIS AFTERNOON AS
850MB WINDS DECREASE FROM 50-60 KTS THROUGH EARLY MORNING TO 20-30
KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS FROM 4 AM THIS
MORNING TO 10 AM FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO
HALF INCH OVER SE WASHINGTON INTO THE SOUTH ID PANHANDLE AND ALONG
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS, EXCEPT LOCALLY UP TO 1
INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. THE DECREASE
WIND COMPONENT OF THE AR WILL ALSO ALLOW THE GUSTY WINDS TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO BE ON THE
DECREASE OVER NORTHERN WA TODAY, FALLING TO 3000-5000 FEET WHICH
WILL REDUCE SNOW MELT RUNOFF.
ALL THIS SAID, WE ARE NEARING THE PEAK OF THE FLOOD EVENT, WITH
MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FALLING LATER TODAY
AFTER CRESTING THIS MORNING. FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL RIVERS, AS WELL AS SMALL STREAMS IN THE
CASCADES AND ID PANHANDLE. MUD AND ROCK SLIDES WILL REMAIN A
THREAT TODAY AS WELL. TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
LIFTS BACK NORTH AGAIN, BUT WITH MUCH LESS LIFT AS IT LIFTS NORTH
DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE. NET RESULT WILL BE AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSES MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES AND ID PANHANDLE.
SNOW LEVELS RISE AGAIN HOWEVER TO 6000-7000 FEET EXCEPT 4000 FEET
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER OF NE WA/N IDAHO WHICH WILL LEAD TO MORE
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW MELT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MONDAY WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY MILD BY MID-DECEMBER STANDARDS WITH
SNOW LEVELS RANGING FROM 5000-7000 FEET. ON MONDAY ANOTHER
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BUT THANKFULLY THIS
LOOKS TO BE OF SHORTER DURATION. YET THE SNOW MELT AND INCREASED
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY KEEP RIVERS AND STREAMS ELEVATED IN THE
CASCADES AND ID PANHANDLE WITH ADDITIONAL RISES POSSIBLE.
THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH SNOW LEVELS MAY BEGIN TO
COME DOWN FOR SNOW TO THE RETURN TO THE MOUNTAINS. BUT FOR THE
VALLEYS EXPECT PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. JW
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: STRONG AND GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THURSDAY. THE WINDS
HAVE HELPED DRY OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH VFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES. ON THURSDAY AS THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW
BEGINS TO DECREASE AND A BAND OF MOISTURE SAGS SOUTH, LIGHT RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KPUW/KLWS WHICH WILL MOISTEN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KPUW.
.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT, EXCEPT KCOE
WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HREF SHOWS GREATER THAN A 80% CHANCE
OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KPUW BETWEEN 15-18Z THURSDAY,
AND EVEN A 70% CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS. YET WITH STILL BREEZY
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS MVFR CONDITIONS.
JW
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 53 39 50 40 51 38 / 30 30 10 10 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 53 40 50 40 51 38 / 70 40 40 20 10 10
PULLMAN 53 45 53 41 52 39 / 70 50 20 10 10 0
LEWISTON 61 49 60 43 56 39 / 20 40 10 10 0 0
COLVILLE 48 30 42 32 44 33 / 10 20 30 20 10 10
SANDPOINT 50 36 44 38 47 36 / 80 30 60 50 20 10
KELLOGG 49 42 49 42 51 40 / 90 70 70 40 20 10
MOSES LAKE 59 39 52 37 50 35 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 58 42 54 40 51 39 / 10 20 10 10 0 10
OMAK 48 34 45 35 44 35 / 10 10 10 10 0 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR SPOKANE AREA-
UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-WASHINGTON PALOUSE.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR LOWER
GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WATERVILLE
PLATEAU-WENATCHEE AREA.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
CENTRAL CHELAN COUNTY-WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY.
ID...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR COEUR D'ALENE
AREA-IDAHO PALOUSE.
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