452
FXUS66 KOTX 120600
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1000 PM PST THU DEC 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RIVERS TO START DECREASING TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER BELOW PASS LEVEL BY TUESDAY.
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW
TUESDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
AREAS OF RAIN WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL BRING A
BRIEF BREAK. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES IN SUNDAY BRINGING LIGHT RAIN
THE MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY BEFORE SNOW LEVELS BEGIN TO
DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY: LIGHT RAIN WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON, AND THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AS THE MOISTURE AXIS (CARRYING PWATS 200-300% OF
NORMAL) IS OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF WASHINGTON. TONIGHT,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHIFT NORTHWARD AGAIN AS THE PLUME
MIGRATES TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER. BY FRIDAY MORNING, EXPECT
AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAIN NEAR THE CASCADE CREST AND CENTRAL
PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS TOTALING
LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES. SATURDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY AS THE RIDGE
IS CENTERED OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN
AROUND 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 40S AND 50S.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MILD CONDITIONS IN THE LOWLANDS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO
MID NEXT WEEK. AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO
THE CASCADES UP TO 0.5" FROM SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT.
ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS LOOK LOWER FOR THIS EVENT PERHAPS AS LOW
AS 3000 FEET NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER BY TUESDAY. FLOODING AND
SLIDES IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
BUT THERE IS A 20-50% CHANCE OF 2+" OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS AND AN 80% CHANCE OF 2+" OF
PRECIPITATION AT THE CASCADE CREST FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM
THURSDAY. THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY THE CASCADES, HAVE A 50-90%
CHANCE OF 6+” OF SNOW BOTH TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND THURSDAY.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS NEXT WEEK
WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR EASTERN WA HAVING GUSTS AROUND 30-40
MPH FOR A FEW DAYS WITH SOME MEMBERS NORTH OF 45 MPH. /DB
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: STEADY LIGHT RAIN OVER SE WASHINGTON HAS MOISTENED THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH A STRATUS DECK NEAR 1000 FEET AGL OVER KPUW.
HREF SHOWS THIS STRATUS DECK EXPANDING TO THE NORTH TOWARDS
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO LIFT NORTH FURTHER INCREASING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. KLWS HAS A VFR CLOUD DECK BUT SOME
GROUND FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED. MODELS SHOW A TREND TOWARDS
DECREASED BL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA SO THE PREVAILING
CONDITIONS LEAN TOWARDS VFR BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FOR KMWH/KEAT
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
STRATUS OVER THE PALOUSE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH
LOWERING CIGS TO IFR/MVFR AT KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE OF CIGS REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
KMWH/KEAT. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE VISIBILITY FORECAST AT
KLWS BETWEEN 6Z-15Z FRIDAY DUE TO PATCHES OF GROUND FOG IN THE
AREA. JW
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 42 51 40 52 36 50 / 40 20 10 0 0 20
COEUR D'ALENE 42 50 41 51 36 49 / 60 40 20 10 0 30
PULLMAN 46 54 40 53 37 50 / 70 20 10 0 0 10
LEWISTON 50 59 42 55 39 53 / 50 10 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 32 44 34 45 32 46 / 20 30 20 10 0 20
SANDPOINT 38 45 40 47 34 46 / 40 60 50 20 10 40
KELLOGG 43 49 42 51 40 51 / 90 70 30 20 0 30
MOSES LAKE 41 54 37 50 35 49 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 44 55 41 51 39 51 / 40 10 0 0 0 20
OMAK 36 46 36 45 36 45 / 20 10 10 0 0 20
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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