481
FXUS66 KOTX 120911
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
111 AM PST FRI DEC 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RIVERS TO START DECREASING TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER BELOW PASS LEVEL BY TUESDAY.
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW
TUESDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
AREAS OF RAIN WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL BRING A
BRIEF BREAK. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES IN SUNDAY BRINGING LIGHT RAIN
THE MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY BEFORE SNOW LEVELS BEGIN TO
DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TTODAY THROUGH SUNDAY: WHAT IS LEFT OF A WEAKENING ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TODAY MAINLY
ALONG THE CASCADES CREST AND ID PANHANDLE. MOST RIVERS HAVE
CRESTED OR WILL SO EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN ONGOING FLOODING
SEVERAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE IN THE CASCADES AND THE ID
PANHANDLE. THEN A FLAT RIDGE WILL BE THE STORY FOR SATURDAY
GIVING THE REGION A MUCH NEEDED BREAK IN THE RAIN. YET SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL BRING IN VERY MILD AIR ALOFT AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB
TO NEAR 10C IN THE CENTRAL CASCADES AND OVER SE WASHINGTON, AND
3-7C OVER NORTHERN WA AND THE ID PANHANDLE. THIS WILL CONTIBUTE TO
MORE MOUNTAIN SNOW MELT. THE BREAK IN THE RAIN AND LESS MOUNTAIN
SNOW LEFT TO MELT WILL ALLOW RIVERS AND STREAMS TO CONTINUE
FALLING, BUT THEY WILL STILL BE ELEVATED. THE MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES GIVING THE
CASCADES AND NE MOUNTAINS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH SNOW LEVELS
AROUND 6000 FEET.
MONDAY: ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PUNCHES IN WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 200-300% OF NORMAL. WHILE THIS ONE WILL
NOT BE AS LONG LIVED, ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF
RAIN ALONG THE CASCADE CREST WHICH IS LIKELY TO GIVE ANOTHER
RISES TO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. WITH LEVELS ALREADY ELEVATED,
ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STEHEKIN RIVER FORECAST
TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AGAIN BY TUESDAY. YET, GIVEN TIME FOR
LEVELS TO RECEED PRIOR AND IT BEING SHORTER LIVED THE FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS WHAT IS OCCURRING THIS WEEK.
THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL HAVE ANOTHER PUNCH OF WIND AND VERY
MILD AIR AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO 5-9C WITH 850MB WINDS OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 40-50 KTS. IT'S TOO FAR OUT TO SAY WITH MUCH
CONFIDENCE HOW MUCH WIND WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE, BUT CURRENTLY
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS GUSTS OF 30-45 MPH MIXING DOWN
ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN INTO THE SPOKANE AREA AND PALOUSE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS A
DEEP LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA RESULTS IN A AN ACTIVE JET STREAM
AIMED AT WASHINGTON, OREGON, AND NORTH IDAHO. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT THE ENHANCED JET WILL HELP BRING DOWN THE SNOW
LEVELS, DROPPING TO 3500-5000 FEET TUESDAY, AND BETWEEN 2000-4000
FEET WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (LOWEST OVER NORTHERN WA/N IDAHO
PANHANDLE). THE STRONG JET AND WAVES TRACKING THROUGH IS A GOOD
PATTERN FOR HEAVY SNOW IN THE CASCADES AND ID PANHANDLE. THE NBM
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY IS GIVING STEVENS PASS A 75%
CHANCE OF 2 FEET OR MORE OF SNOW! FOR LOOKOUT PASS THERE A 40%
CHANCE OF A FOOT OR MORE DURING THIS SAME TIME. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS IN THIS PATTERN. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING A 985-990MB SURFACE LOW AND TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN BC WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. YET
THE MAJORITY OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT GUSTS
IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE NBM WITH A 60-70% CHANCE OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH TUESDAY FOR
MOSES LAKE, SPOKANE, PULLMAN, AND LEWISTON. THE CHANCES FOR GUSTS
EXCEEDING 50 MPH IN THESE SAME AREAS IS AROUND 30%. JW
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: STEADY LIGHT RAIN OVER SE WASHINGTON HAS MOISTENED THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH A STRATUS DECK NEAR 1000 FEET AGL OVER KPUW.
HREF SHOWS THIS STRATUS DECK EXPANDING TO THE NORTH TOWARDS
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO LIFT NORTH FURTHER INCREASING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. KLWS HAS A VFR CLOUD DECK BUT SOME
GROUND FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED. MODELS SHOW A TREND TOWARDS
DECREASED BL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA SO THE PREVAILING
CONDITIONS LEAN TOWARDS VFR BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FOR KMWH/KEAT
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
STRATUS OVER THE PALOUSE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH
LOWERING CIGS TO IFR/MVFR AT KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE OF CIGS REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
KMWH/KEAT. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE VISIBILITY FORECAST AT
KLWS BETWEEN 6Z-15Z FRIDAY DUE TO PATCHES OF GROUND FOG IN THE
AREA. JW
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 51 40 52 35 50 41 / 10 10 0 0 10 20
COEUR D'ALENE 50 41 51 35 50 40 / 30 20 10 0 20 30
PULLMAN 53 39 52 37 50 40 / 10 0 0 0 10 10
LEWISTON 60 42 55 38 54 43 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 44 35 45 32 45 35 / 30 30 10 0 10 30
SANDPOINT 47 40 47 33 46 38 / 60 40 20 0 30 50
KELLOGG 49 41 51 40 50 42 / 60 20 10 0 20 20
MOSES LAKE 55 38 50 35 49 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
WENATCHEE 55 41 51 39 50 42 / 10 0 0 0 10 30
OMAK 47 37 46 36 45 38 / 10 10 0 0 10 30
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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