877
FXUS66 KOTX 122349
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
349 PM PST FRI DEC 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RIVER LEVELS STILL DECREASING.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER BELOW PASS LEVEL BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
- MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW STARTING
WEDNESDAY MORNING. 75% CHANCE OF 2 FEET OR MORE OF SNOW AT
STEVENS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SYNOPSIS
SATURDAY WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES IN
SUNDAY BRINGING LIGHT RAIN THE MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW
MONDAY BEFORE SNOW LEVELS BEGIN TO DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE TO END
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY AND TOMORROW: THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE LINGERING MOISTURE
FROM THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SURGES NORTHWARD INTO CANADA. SATURDAY
WILL BE DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED OVER THE INW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S AND
50S.
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC WILL
BRING A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE (PWATS 175-225% OF NORMAL) TO
THE CASCADES. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AROUND 0.10” TO NEAR
0.50” NEAR THE CASCADE CREST. MAX WET BULB TEMPERATURES HANGING
AROUND 0C NEAR THE MAZAMA AREA COULD SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW.
MEANWHILE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA, A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WILL DRAW UP MOISTURE DEEP FROM THE SUBTROPICS AIDED BY
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. SNOW
LEVELS AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT MONDAY MORNING WILL BE AROUND
5500-9000 FT SO EXPECTING RAIN INITIALLY EVEN FOR THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES. THE FIRST FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY EVENING WILL MAKE A
DENT TO OUR SNOW LEVELS BRINGING THEM DOWN TO 4000-6000 FT SO
STILL MOSTLY EXPECTING RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS COLD FRONT PASSAGE MONDAY EVENING WILL BRING
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH REGION WIDE.
OVERALL, EXPECT 1-4” OF RAIN IN THE CASCADES AND 1-2” OF RAIN IN
THE IDAHO PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND ROCK/MUD SLIDES IN
SUSCEPTIBLE TERRAIN WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THIS RAIN
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ENSEMBLES SHOW A SUB 990 MB LOW PERHAPS AS LOW AS THE 970S
RAPIDLY DEEPENING IN SW AB TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A JET STREAK INCREASING THE RISK FOR STRONG WINDS IN THE INW.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY (70-90%). SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP SHARPLY
TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION. THE AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AT 500 MB IS
QUITE COLD AROUND -30 TO -35C AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW SWITCHING
TO NORTHWEST IN WESTERN WA, THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR A
CONVERGENCE ZONE TO HIT SOMEWHERE IN THE CASCADES. THERE IS A
75% CHANCE STEVENS PASS SEES 2+ FEET OF SNOW FROM TUESDAY
EVENING TO FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS A 50% CHANCE FOR A FOOT
DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME FOR LOOKOUT PASS. THE ACTIVE PATTERN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. DB
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: KEAT-KPUW ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT MUCH SLOWER
THAN EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE HREF IS NOT HANDLING THIS WELL.
CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AT KGEG-KSFF-KCOE-KMWH AND IMPROVEMENTS WILL ARRIVE IN
THE EARLY MORNING FOR KGEG-KSFF-KCOE. THERE IS A CHANCE KMWH
WILL STAY IN AN MVFR TO IFR STRATUS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. IFR CIGS
AT KLWS WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND CLEAR OUT SOMETIME TONIGHT. THIS
ALSO COMES WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
EXACT TIMING OF IMPROVEMENTS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 40 52 35 50 41 53 / 0 0 0 10 20 90
COEUR D'ALENE 40 52 36 50 41 51 / 10 0 0 10 20 90
PULLMAN 38 52 37 50 40 49 / 0 0 0 0 10 90
LEWISTON 41 56 39 54 42 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 70
COLVILLE 34 45 32 46 34 48 / 10 0 0 10 40 100
SANDPOINT 39 47 34 46 38 48 / 20 10 0 20 40 100
KELLOGG 40 51 40 50 42 49 / 10 0 0 10 20 90
MOSES LAKE 37 50 34 48 39 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 80
WENATCHEE 40 51 39 51 42 51 / 0 0 0 10 20 90
OMAK 36 45 36 46 38 47 / 0 0 0 10 30 90
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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