359
FXUS66 KOTX 131028
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
228 AM PST SAT DEC 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RIVER LEVELS DECREASING THIS WEEKEND.
- RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TO BRING
ADDITIONAL RIVER RISES AND MUD AND ROCK SLIDE CONCERNS TO
CASCADES AND IDAHO PANHANDLE.
- HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A 30-60%
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF GREATER THAN 50 MPH.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW IMPACTING THE CASCADES
STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING. 80% CHANCE OF 2 FEET OR MORE OF SNOW AT
STEVENS PASS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SYNOPSIS
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH DECREASING RIVER
LEVELS. BUT THEN THE PATTERN TURNS VERY ACTIVE NEXT WEEK. RAIN
AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
RIVER RISES WITH MUD AND ROCK SLIDE CONCERNS IN STEEP TERRAIN
OF THE CASCADES AND IDAHO PANHANDLE. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
THEN DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH THE RETURN
OF MOUNTAINS SNOW. THE MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BE HEAVY IN THE
CASCADES.
DISCUSSION
...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH RENEWED FLOODING
CONCERNS FOR CASCADES AND NORTH ID PANHANDLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY, AND HEAVY MOUNTAIN
SNOW FOR THE CASCADES STARTING WEDNESDAY...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A FLAT RIDGE TODAY WILL BRING A MUCH NEEDED
BREAK IN THE RAIN. YET SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING IN VERY MILD AIR
ALOFT AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR 10C IN THE CENTRAL
CASCADES AND OVER SE WASHINGTON, AND 3-7C OVER NORTHERN WA AND THE
ID PANHANDLE. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE MOUNTAIN SNOW MELT.
THE BREAK IN THE RAIN AND LESS MOUNTAIN SNOW LEFT TO MELT WILL
ALLOW RIVERS AND STREAMS TO CONTINUE FALLING, BUT THEY WILL
STILL BE ELEVATED. THE MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY
BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES GIVING THE CASCADES LIGHT RAIN
AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN FOR NE MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW LEVELS
AROUND 6000 FEET.
MONDAY: ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PUNCHES IN WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 225-300% OF NORMAL. WHILE THIS ONE
WILL NOT BE AS LONG LIVED, ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING ANOTHER 1-3
INCHES OF RAIN ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AND THE MOUNTAINS OF THE N
IDAHO PANHANDLE WHICH WILL GIVE ANOTHER RISE TO AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. WITH LEVELS ALREADY ELEVATED, ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS
FORECAST FOR THE STEHEKIN RIVER WITH THE COEUR D'ALENE RIVER AT
CATALDO RISING BACK UP TOWARD BANKFULL. THE RAIN WILL ALSO
INCREASE THE RISK OF ADDITIONAL MUD SLIDES IN THE STEEP TERRAIN
OF THE CASCADES. THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL HAVE ANOTHER PUNCH
OF WIND AND VERY MILD AIR AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO 5-9C
WITH 850MB WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 40-50 KTS. MOST OF
THESE STRONGER WINDS OCCUR IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE STRONGER
GUSTS NOT EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE, BUT IT WILL BE
WARM AND BREEZY.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS A DEEP LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AIMS A
STRONG JET STREAM AT THE REGION.
*STRONG WINDS: ENSEMBLES SHOW A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN BC INTO ALBERTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING TO 975-980MB AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS IS A HIGH WIND
PATTERN, AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION. YET SINCE ITS STILL 4-5 DAYS OUT THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE PRECISE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
AND DEPTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. RIGHT NOW THE NBM IS CARRYING A
30-40% CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER 50 MPH FOR THE COLUMBIA BASIN,
WENATCHEE AREA AND WATERVILLE PLATEAU INTO THE SPOKANE/COEUR
D'ALENE AREA, AND A 60-70% CHANCE FOR THE PALOUSE AND LEWISTON
AREA. YET AGAIN THE PATTERN IS CONCERNING FOR HIGH WINDS AND
SOMETHING THAT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
*MOUNTAIN SNOW: BEHIND THE COLD FRONT STRONG FLOW INTO THE
CASCADES, AND INSTABILITY FROM RAPIDLY COOLING TEMPERATURE ALOFT
WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF SNOW RETURNING TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH
HEAVY AMOUNTS IN THE CASCADES. STEVENS PASS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY HAS A 70% CHANCE OF A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW. LOOKOUT
PASS HAS A 40% CHANCE OF 4 OR MORE INCHES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: ANOTHER SURGE OF PRECIPITATION
ENTERS BY THURSDAY AND THIS TIME SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOWER (AT
LEAST INITIALLY) DUE TO THE STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS START OFF AROUND 1500-2500 FEET BUT A SURGE
OF WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED WITH THE CURRENT NBM
RAISING SNOW LEVELS TO 3000-5000 FEET BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE THE VALLEYS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES
WHERE THE EC ENSEMBLE FAVORING SNOW AS THE PREVAILING PRECIP
TYPE, ESPECIALLY THE METHOW VALLEY. HEADING INTO FRIDAY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE JET STREAM WILL SHIFT SOUTH WITH UNSTABLE
WESTERLY FLOW PROMOTING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE CASCADES AND
ID PANHANDLE.
THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIODS STILL LOOKS TO PRODUCE
HEAVY SNOW IN THE CASCADES WITH THE NBM HAVING A 80% CHANCE OF
MORE THAN 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR STEVENS PASS, AND A 60% CHANCE OF
OVER A FOOT AT LOOKOUT PASS. JW
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: SATELLITE IMAGERY COMBINED WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND WEB CAMERAS SHOW MVFR STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEYS FROM
OMAK EAST TO COLVILLE, SANDPOINT, AND BONNERS FERRY, WITH
STRATUS ALSO OVER KGEG/KSFF. THERE IS ALSO FOG AROUND THE MOSES
LAKE AND LEWISTON AREAS WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE AT KEAT/KPUW. OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING THERE IS
LITTLE CHANGE IN BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A SLIGHTLY
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT IS EXPECTED TO HELP IMPROVE
KGEG/KSFF TO VFR. THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WIND IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT KLWS. A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER
PERSIST FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHERE
STRATUS IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL. MOSES LAKE CARRIES THE HIGHEST
UNCERTAINTY, AS THE DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MAY NOT PENETRATE
INTO THIS AREA.
.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
EXACT TIMING OF IMPROVEMENTS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR KLWS
AND KMWH. JW
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 52 34 49 41 53 40 / 0 0 10 20 100 60
COEUR D'ALENE 51 36 50 41 52 41 / 0 0 20 20 100 90
PULLMAN 52 37 50 41 51 42 / 0 0 10 10 90 80
LEWISTON 55 39 53 43 55 46 / 0 0 0 0 70 60
COLVILLE 44 32 45 34 49 34 / 10 0 20 50 100 60
SANDPOINT 47 35 45 38 47 39 / 10 0 30 50 100 100
KELLOGG 51 40 50 42 49 41 / 0 0 20 20 100 100
MOSES LAKE 50 34 47 39 56 39 / 0 0 10 10 70 20
WENATCHEE 50 39 50 41 53 39 / 0 0 10 30 90 50
OMAK 46 36 45 39 47 34 / 0 0 10 40 90 50
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page