070
FXUS66 KOTX 132235
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
235 PM PST SAT DEC 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND DECREASING RIVER LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY.
- RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TO BRING
ADDITIONAL RIVER RISES AND MUD AND ROCK SLIDE CONCERNS TO
CASCADES AND IDAHO PANHANDLE.
- HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A 30-60%
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF GREATER THAN 50 MPH.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW IMPACTING THE CASCADES
STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING. 70% CHANCE OF 3 FEET OR MORE OF
SNOW AT STEVENS PASS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SYNOPSIS
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH DECREASING RIVER
LEVELS. NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RIVER RISES WITH MUD AND ROCK
SLIDE CONCERNS IN STEEP TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND IDAHO
PANHANDLE. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF MOUNTAINS SNOW. HEAVY
MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE CASCADES IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH RENEWED FLOODING
CONCERNS FOR CASCADES AND NORTH ID PANHANDLE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, AND
HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON: A WELCOME BREAK FROM CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WILL LAST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH HIGHS
TODAY AND TOMORROW EXPECTED IN THE HIGH 40S/EARLY 50S. THESE VALUES
ARE 15-20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL.
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BY SUNDAY EVENING, ANOTHER ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN MAKES ITS ENTRANCE AS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE OF WASHINGTON. ANOTHER PLUME OF WARM MOISTURE
COMES THROUGH, RAISING PWATS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM 90-100%
TO 250-300% OF NORMAL. ALONGSIDE ENSEMBLE PWATS, ENHANCED FORECAST
INDEX VALUES SHOW ANOMALOUSLY HIGH CHANCES FOR TEMPERATURES (THROUGH
MIDWEEK), RAINFALL, AND STRONG WINDS, WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW.
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS FIRST WAVE REMAIN WARMER THAN USUAL, AND THUS
SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH SNOW BEING
CONFINED TO HIGHEST MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS. BY TUESDAY, LOWER HEIGHTS
WILL START TO MOVE IN AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW, DROPPING SNOW
LEVELS. ON WEDNESDAY, THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH, AND
MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL BEGIN SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOW.
RAINFALL: BECAUSE OF ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM THE MULTIPLE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST WEEK, HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN. MULTIPLE RIVER FORECAST POINTS IN CHELAN
COUNTY INCLUDING STEHEKIN RIVER AND THE WENATCHEE RIVER SHOW A
FORECASTED INCREASE IN STREAMFLOWS, EITHER HEADING BACK INTO FLOOD
STAGE OR COMING CLOSE TO IT. RAIN TOTALS AT THE MOUNTAIN CREST TO
THE UPPER RIVER VALLEYS (ROUGHLY 3000 FEET AND ABOVE) WILL TOTAL
NEARLY 3-4 INCHES. NBM PROBABILITIES SHOW LEAVENWORTH HAS A 40%
CHANCE OF SEEING 3 OR MORE INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IN THE IDAHO PANHANDLE, RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES OF
RAIN WILL FALL, RESULTING IN AN UPTICK IN STREAMFLOWS FOR THE COEUR
D'ALENE RIVER AS WELL. CHANCES FOR UPCOMING HYDROLOGIC HEADLINES
ARE INCREASING.
SNOWFALL: AS THE TROUGH OFF COAST MOVES INTO THE STATE OF WASHINGTON
ON WEDNESDAY, COLDER AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE AREA, LOWERING
SNOW LEVELS AND BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MOUNTAIN PASSES ALONG
THE CASCADES AND IDAHO PANHANDLE. WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM, SNOWFALL
WILL BE HEAVY AND CONTINUOUS. NBM PROBABILITIES SHOW STEVENS PASS
HAS A 40% CHANCE OF SEEING 2 FEET OF SNOW OR MORE THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BLEWETT AND LOOKOUT PASSES HAVE A 20-40% CHANCE
OF SEEING 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW DURING THIS TIME. BOTTOM LINE:
EXPECT WINTRY DRIVING CONDITIONS AND PREPARE ACCORDINGLY, AS ROADS
MAY BE SLICK.
HIGH WINDS: IMPACTS TO DRIVING WILL BE FURTHER HINDERED TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS STRONG WESTERLY WINDS MOVE
THROUGH. A SURFACE LOW DROPPING INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL DEEPEN,
INCREASING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE. RIGHT
NOW, DETERMINISTIC WIND FORECASTS SHOW WESTERLY 850 MB WINDS 50-
65KTS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION MAKING MIXING
MORE LIKELY, WIND GUSTS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE STRONG. AREAS THAT
WILL SEE THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS INCLUDE THE WENATCHEE, WATERVILLE
PLATEAU, SPOKANE, BASIN, ID/WA PALOUSE, AND LEWISTON/PULLMAN AREAS.
NBM PROBABILITIES ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING A 40% CHANCE AND HIGHER OF
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS 25-30 MPH. MANY OF THESE SAME AREAS HAVE A 25-
35% CHANCE OF SEEING WIND GUSTS 55 MPH OR HIGHER. A NOTABLE
EXCEPTION IS LEWISTON/PULLMAN, WITH A 50% CHANCE OF 55+ MPH WIND
GUSTS. WIND HEADLINES WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE NEEDED IF MODELS
CONTINUE SHOWING SUCH STRONG WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN EARNEST AT MOUNTAIN
PASSES ON THURSDAY, ACCUMULATING FURTHER. BLEWETT AND LOOKOUT PASSES
HAVE A 30-40% CHANCE OF SEEING AN ADDITIONAL FOOT OF SNOW THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STEVENS PASS WILL SEE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER TOTALS,
WITH A 77% CHANCE OF SEEING 3 FEET OF SNOW OR MORE THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MID TO
LATE WEEK. BOTTOM LINE, EXPECT ANOTHER IMPACTFUL WEEK OF WEATHER,
ESPECIALLY TO MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL AREAS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: CLUSTERS OVERWHELMINGLY SHOW CONTINUED LOW
HEIGHTS AND ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PNW NEXT WEEKEND AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE. THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER'S 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ALSO SHOWS SIGNALS OF A
CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. /AS
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: MOST CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR, APART FROM LWS,
WHICH HAS SOME LOWER CLOUDS THAT LOOK TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
21Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DECREASING THROUGH THE
DAY. OF NOTE, THE HREF HAS A 40% CHANCE FOR MVFR/PATCHY FOG AT
KMWH RIGHT NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.
.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN DRY CONDITIONS AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING FOR
LOW CLOUDS CLEARING AT KLWS. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
MVFR/PATCHY FOG AT MWH RIGHT NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AT 17Z.
/AS
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 35 48 41 54 40 50 / 0 20 20 100 60 50
COEUR D'ALENE 36 48 41 52 40 48 / 0 20 30 100 80 70
PULLMAN 36 50 41 50 41 51 / 0 10 10 90 80 60
LEWISTON 39 55 43 56 46 56 / 0 0 0 70 60 40
COLVILLE 32 44 35 49 33 46 / 0 20 50 100 50 50
SANDPOINT 35 44 38 48 38 46 / 0 30 50 100 90 80
KELLOGG 40 50 43 49 40 46 / 0 20 20 100 90 90
MOSES LAKE 34 45 38 56 39 53 / 0 20 20 70 10 30
WENATCHEE 39 49 42 53 40 49 / 0 10 40 90 40 60
OMAK 36 47 38 48 34 45 / 0 10 40 90 30 50
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page