627
FXUS66 KOTX 141029
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
229 AM PST SUN DEC 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND DECREASING RIVER LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY.
- RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TO BRING ADDITIONAL
RIVER RISES AND MUD AND ROCK SLIDE CONCERNS TO CASCADES AND
IDAHO PANHANDLE.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
CHANCES FOR WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 MPH RANGE FROM 50% TO
80% ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW IMPACTING THE CASCADES
STARTING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. THERE IS A 90% CHANCE OF 2 FEET
OR MORE OF SNOW AT STEVENS PASS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SYNOPSIS
DRIER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DECREASING
RIVER LEVELS, BUT THE BREAK FROM ACTIVE WEATHER WON'T LAST LONG. AN
EXTREMELY ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS NEXT WEEK. RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN
SNOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RIVER RISES WITH MUD
AND ROCK SLIDE CONCERNS IN STEEP TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND IDAHO
PANHANDLE. STRONG WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO HEAVY SNOW AT
PASS LEVELS.
DISCUSSION
...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH RENEWED FLOODING
CONCERNS FOR CASCADES AND NORTH ID PANHANDLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, AND HEAVY MOUNTAIN
SNOW FOR THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...
SUNDAY: OUR MUCH NEEDED BREAK IN THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM BRINGING LIGHT RAIN (AND SNOW
ABOVE 6000 FEET) TO THE CASCADE CREST THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S - 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID-DECEMBER.
MONDAY: ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER BARGES INTO THE REGION WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 250-300% OF NORMAL. WHILE
THIS ONE WILL NOT LAST AS LONG AS THE ONE WE SAW LAST WEEK,
ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST AND THE MOUNTAINS OF THE NORTH IDAHO PANHANDLE WHICH WILL GIVE
ANOTHER RISE TO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. WITH LEVELS ALREADY
ELEVATED, ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THE STEHEKIN RIVER
WITH THE COEUR D'ALENE RIVER AT CATALDO RISING BACK UP TO
BANKFULL AND THE WENATCHEE RIVER AT PESHASTIN ALSO NEARING (BUT
CURRENTLY NOT FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE) BANKFULL. THE RAIN WILL
ALSO INCREASE THE RISK OF ADDITIONAL MUD SLIDES IN THE STEEP
TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES. TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S
WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE SPRING HAS COME EARLY, BUT DON'T BE
FOOLED. IT WON'T LAST. WE WILL RETURN TO OUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED
WINTER PROGRAMMING LATER IN THE WEEK.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING IN A HIGH IMPACT
WEATHER EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS A DEEP LOW IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA AIMS A STRONG JET STREAM AT THE REGION.
*STRONG WINDS: ENSEMBLES SHOW A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN BC INTO ALBERTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS IS A HIGH WIND PATTERN THAT IS KNOWN TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH HAVE BEEN
STEADILY RISING WITH EACH MODEL RUN. THE LATEST RUN OF THE NATIONAL
BLEND OF MODELS IS SHOWING A 50 TO 85 PERCENT CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER
50 MPH ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN, CASCADE CREST, EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES, AND SPOKANE/CDA AREA. CHANCES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 90 AND
95 PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE REGION INCLUDING
PULLMAN, LEWISTON, AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
WASHINGTON, CHANCES ARE AROUND 20 PERCENT. WITH ALL OF THE RECENT
RAIN LEAVING SOILS SATURATED, THERE WILL BE AN ESPECIALLY HIGH RISK
OF TREE DAMAGE WITH STRONG GUSTS.
*MOUNTAIN SNOW: BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, STRONG WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE
CASCADES COMBINED WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS AND INSTABILITY FROM
RAPIDLY COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HEAVY SNOW
RETURNING TO THE CASCADES. STEVENS PASS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
HAS A 80% CHANCE OF A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW. LOOKOUT PASS HAS A 40%
CHANCE OF 4 OR MORE INCHES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: ANOTHER SURGE OF PRECIPITATION
ENTERS BY THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS START OFF AROUND 1500-2500 FEET BUT
A RETURN OF WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED WITH THE
CURRENT NBM RAISING SNOW LEVELS TO 3000-4000 FEET BY THURSDAY
EVENING.
OVERALL IT WILL BE AN ACTIVE, COMPLEX WEATHER WEEK WITH A VARIETY OF
POTENTIAL HAZARDS. /RLF
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST
OF THE REGION. A POTENTIAL EXCEPTION WILL BE KMWH, WHICH HAS
A 30% CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z. CLEAR SKIES
IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING, BUT UNLIKE KEAT, KMWH IS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT
DOWNSLOPE WINDS MAY NOT DRY OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KMWH OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG IMPACTING KMWH. /FEWKES
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 48 41 54 39 49 38 / 10 20 100 50 60 100
COEUR D'ALENE 49 41 51 40 48 38 / 20 20 100 80 80 100
PULLMAN 51 41 51 41 50 37 / 10 10 90 70 60 100
LEWISTON 54 43 56 45 56 44 / 0 10 70 50 30 90
COLVILLE 44 34 49 32 46 34 / 20 50 100 50 60 100
SANDPOINT 45 38 48 37 44 37 / 20 40 100 90 90 100
KELLOGG 50 43 49 40 46 36 / 10 20 100 90 90 100
MOSES LAKE 46 38 57 38 52 39 / 10 30 70 10 30 80
WENATCHEE 49 42 53 39 49 38 / 10 50 90 40 70 100
OMAK 46 39 47 33 45 34 / 10 50 90 30 60 100
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS.
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR NORTHERN
PANHANDLE.
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