722
FXUS66 KOTX 020117
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
517 PM PST THU JAN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
- OCCASIONAL RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
- MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW AND RAIN AND SNOW VALLEYS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SYNOPSIS
A MORE ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, FREEZING
RAIN, AND RAIN WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THEN
OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW,
ALONG WITH RAIN OR SNOW IN THE VALLEYS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
..WINTRY MIX FOR THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY: BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A SERIES OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW UP MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 175-225 PERCENT
OF NORMAL. THIS WARM, MOIST AIR WILL OVERRIDE COLD AIR AT THE
SURFACE WHERE WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR LOCAL AREAS AROUND THE
PALOUSE AND CAMAS PRAIRIE THAT HAVE BENEFITED FROM DOWNSLOPE
SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS TO BE A VERY
TRICKY PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST DUE TO A DEEP ISOTHERMAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE HOVERING NEAR THE FREEZING MARK FROM THE
SURFACE UP TO 5000-7000 FEET AGL. THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN MIXED
PRECIPITATION REPORTED ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND WENATCHEE
AREA. THE PROFILES ARE SLIGHTLY COLDER OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
TONIGHT PROVIDING A BOOST OF CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION
REMAINS SNOW. FOR THE MOSES LAKE AREA THROUGH THE SPOKANE/COEUR
D'ALENE AREA AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS INITIALLY LIGHT
SNOW IS FORECAST TO CHANGE TO MAINLY FREEZING RAIN, WITH
LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH AFTER THE QUICKEST CHANGEOVER. FOR THAT
REASON THE HIGHEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH
(LOCALLY UP TO .2 INCHES POSSIBLE), IS FORECAST AROUND THE
RITZVILLE AREA DOWN TOWARDS WASHTUCNA AND LA CROSSE AREAS. THE
PROLONGED ISENTROPIC ASCENT INTO NE WASHINGTON AND THE ID
PANHANDLE HAS LED TO AN INCREASE IN SNOW TOTALS WHERE
PRECIPITATION REMAINS AS SNOW (COLVILLE EAST TO SANDPOINT
NORTHWARD TO THE CANADIAN BORDER). FOR ALL OF THE ABOVE REASONS
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED ACROSS THE
REGION. THE PULLMAN/MOSCOW AREA AND LC VALLEY CARRY LOW
CONFIDENCE AS THE COLD AIR LINGERS IN SOME PLACES, SUCH THAT A
WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. HOWEVER WITH TEMPERATURES NOT
FAR FROM FREEZING AND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO MODERATE AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO FALL THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE FOR AN
ADVISORY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: AS THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE. ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
MAINLY VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW AS IT WILL HAVE MILDER AIR
WITH IT. YET POCKETS OF NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN. AND IN THE METHOW VALLEY THE COLD AIR
REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH THAT SNOW IS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION
TYPE. ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
BRING MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT TIMES IN THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY STEVENS AND
SHERMAN PASSES.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING A SHARPER
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH LOWER
SNOW LEVELS TO START (1500-2000 FEET), THIS MAY FINALLY GIVE
SOME OF THE VALLEYS A CHANCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.
YET, THE NBM HAS SNOW LEVELS RISING TO 2500-3500 FEET IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO
RAIN IN SOME VALLEYS LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN VALLEY
AMOUNTS. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS. DURING THIS PERIOD (MONDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY),
THE NBM HAS A 60% CHANCE OF 12 INCHES OR MORE FOR STEVENS PASS,
AND A 40% CHANCE OF 12 INCHES FOR LOOKOUT PASS. JW
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: WINTER WEATHER PATTERN IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH
THE REGION BRINGING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW. MANY TAF SITES ARE
RECEIVING LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET. EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, SNOW WILL
BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN FOR KEAT-KMWH- KGEG- KSFF-
KCOE. PRECIPITATION AT KEAT AND KMWH WILL BE VERY LIGHT. SOME
COLD AIR INITIALLY TRAPPED AT KLWS MAY LEAD TO FREEZING RAIN
INITIALLY BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. AS PRECIPITATION ARRIVES
CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND SATURATE FROM THE TOP-DOWN, WITH IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS ENCOMPASSING THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DECREASING LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THE
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN. ENSEMBLES ARE
SHOWING HIGH PROBABILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS OVER KGEG-KSFF-KCOE-
KPUW FROM FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE EVENING.
.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
TIMING OF THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN FOR KEAT-
KMWH-KGEG. DRY AIR ALOFT AHEAD OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
WILL ERODE SOME OF THE WARM NOSE CURRENTLY PRESENT AS
PRECIPITATION WORKS TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE AFTER 20Z. DUE TO
THIS, THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THESE LOCATIONS. MODELS DO EVENTUALLY SHOW THE
WARM-NOSE ALOFT REDEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING, WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 30 37 34 42 36 45 / 90 80 30 70 80 70
COEUR D'ALENE 30 37 34 42 36 45 / 90 100 40 70 80 80
PULLMAN 34 43 36 46 39 47 / 90 90 10 60 60 70
LEWISTON 36 48 38 49 40 51 / 80 80 0 20 30 40
COLVILLE 29 36 31 40 34 44 / 80 80 70 100 90 90
SANDPOINT 29 37 34 40 36 42 / 90 100 70 90 90 90
KELLOGG 31 41 38 43 39 44 / 100 100 40 70 80 90
MOSES LAKE 27 36 31 41 34 45 / 50 30 20 70 50 20
WENATCHEE 29 34 34 39 36 42 / 30 40 40 80 60 30
OMAK 28 34 33 38 36 42 / 30 20 40 90 70 50
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL
CHELAN COUNTY-NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR SPOKANE
AREA.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR LOWER
GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-MOSES LAKE AREA-UPPER
COLUMBIA BASIN-WASHINGTON PALOUSE.
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST FRIDAY FOR NORTHERN
PANHANDLE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL
PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS-COEUR D'ALENE AREA.
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