622
FXUS66 KOTX 020831
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1231 AM PST FRI JAN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- ROUNDS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW AND RAIN AND SNOW VALLEYS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SYNOPSIS
A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, AND RAIN WILL OCCUR
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THEN OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW, ALONG WITH RAIN OR SNOW IN THE
VALLEYS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
...AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY: AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WILL
BRING MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS TO THE COLUMBIA BASIN, WEST PLAINS,
EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES, AND NORTHEAST VALLEYS THIS MORNING.
HI-RES MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL
REDEVELOP IN THE BASIN, WEST PLAINS, AND PARTS OF CHELAN COUNTY
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
AROUND A LIGHT GLAZE TO AROUND 0.10”. LIGHT SNOW WILL REDEVELOP
IN THE NORTHEAST VALLEYS WHERE WET BULB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
STAY BELOW ZERO, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR COLVILLE, NEWPORT,
METALLINE, AND SANDPOINT. PLAN TO GIVE YOURSELF SOME EXTRA TIME
FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE TODAY. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL
DECREASE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, LEAVING MOST OF THE AREA
BESIDES THE ID PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES SHROUDED IN LOW
CLOUDS. ANY WINTRY MIX WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AT STEVENS AND
LOOKOUT PASSES BY THE AFTERNOON AS WARM AIR ALOFT SURGES INTO
THE REGION WITH AN INCOMING WARM FRONT. HOWEVER, SOME LOWLAND
LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON MAY SEE SOME WINTRY MIX
REDEVELOP IN THE EVENING IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW
FREEZING. THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU LOOKS SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOME VERY
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FORECASTED AND THE
TIMING OF THE PRECIP, I HAVE OPTED TO NOT TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THIS FORECAST CYCLE. WET BULB TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C IN WESTERN OKANOGAN COUNTY SUPPORT LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING. AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT AROUND A
TRACE TO AN INCH IN THE METHOW VALLEY FROM THIS EVENING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE BEYOND FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT WINTRY PRECIPITATION
FOR THE LOWLANDS. ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. WINTER DRIVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
TROUGHING CONTINUING IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK. WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 1500-3000 FT TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY, THIS GIVES MANY LOWLAND AREAS A CHANCE FOR SNOW,
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT. ENSEMBLES INDICATE A PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW FOR THE CASCADE PASSES AND LOOKOUT PASS FROM
TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A 70% CHANCE FOR 18+” OF SNOW AT
STEVENS PASS FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY ACCORDING TO THE
NATIONAL BLEND. THOSE CHANCES LOWER TO 15% FOR LOOKOUT PASS.
HERE ARE THE CHANCES OF 2+” FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME FOR THE
LOWLANDS: PULLMAN: 15%, SPOKANE: 20%, CDA: 25%, COLVILLE: 35%,
SANDPOINT: 50%. THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS. DB
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD (70-95% CHANCE). RADAR AND GOES-WEST
IMAGERY INDICATED THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL REACH KGEG-
KSFF IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION
QUICKLY FILLING IN BEHIND THE BACK EDGE BRINGING CHANCES FOR
FREEZING RAIN FOR KMWH-KEAT FROM AROUND 08-11Z, CHANGING TO RAIN
AROUND 12-15Z, THEN DRYING OUT AROUND 15-16Z. MODELS ALSO
SUGGEST WARMING ALOFT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN
AROUND 10Z BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN AROUND 16Z. MODELS DO SHOW
GRADUAL CEILING IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FOR
KLWS-KPUW FROM 18Z FRI TO 02Z SATURDAY AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW DRIES
OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR KMWH-KGEG EARLY THIS MORNING.
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR KEAT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FOR SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR KPUW-KLWS TOMORROW MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 35 33 42 36 45 33 / 90 40 70 80 70 40
COEUR D'ALENE 38 34 42 37 44 34 / 100 50 70 90 90 60
PULLMAN 42 36 46 39 46 36 / 90 20 60 60 70 60
LEWISTON 46 38 49 40 52 38 / 70 10 20 30 40 50
COLVILLE 35 30 40 34 43 31 / 80 70 90 90 80 50
SANDPOINT 37 34 40 36 42 34 / 100 70 90 100 100 80
KELLOGG 40 38 43 39 42 36 / 100 50 70 80 90 70
MOSES LAKE 35 30 41 34 45 31 / 40 30 60 60 20 20
WENATCHEE 34 33 39 36 42 31 / 40 50 80 70 30 20
OMAK 34 33 38 35 42 31 / 20 50 80 70 40 20
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL CHELAN COUNTY-NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-WESTERN CHELAN
COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
SPOKANE AREA.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LOWER GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-WASHINGTON PALOUSE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR MOSES
LAKE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN.
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS-COEUR D'ALENE AREA.
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