484
FXUS66 KOTX 032353
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
353 PM PST SAT JAN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ROUNDS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH MONDAY.
- BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW IN THE VALLEYS.
SYNOPSIS
OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW,
ALONG WITH RAIN OR SNOW IN THE VALLEYS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: THE INLAND NW WILL REMAIN N AN ACTIVE
PATTERN, WITH A SERIES OF WAVES TRACKING INTO THE AREA. ONE
EXITED EARLIER TODAY, BUT THE NEXT IS ALREADY COMING UP FROM
THE SOUTH. THAT FEATURE WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW,
WITH A LOCALIZED MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW NEAR THE CASCADES WHERE
COLDER AIR REMAINS. THAT PRECIPITATION WILL START TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
BECOME MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN HIGH THROUGH SUNDAY AND
THEN A PARENT TROUGH SLIPS BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THAT
WILL KEEP CHANCES ALIVE AROUND THE MOUNTAINS AND PERIODICALLY
AROUND THE EAST THIRD OF WA, BUT THE LEE OF THE CASCADES AND
CENTRAL WA WILL SEE A DECLINE IN THAT RISK AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW
TAKES OVER THERE. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
LOWLAND RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT HEADING INTO MONDAY THE
LOWLANDS MAY SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR AT TIMES ALL SNOW. OVERALL
SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AT 0.5 TO
3 INCHES, WITH ONLY MINOR AMOUNTS IN THE LOWLANDS.
IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION WINDS WILL BE A NOTABLE
FEATURE. THE BLUE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE CAMAS PRAIRIE WERE
ALREADY SEEING BREEZY CONDITIONS (WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH). WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE A BIT MORE THROUGH THE NIGHT, WHICH
MAY BORDER ADVISORY LEVEL. THIS WILL BE MONITORED. ADDITIONALLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMBIA BASIN/PALOUSE INTO
THE SPOKANE AREA THROUGH NIGHT, PEAKING TOWARD MORNING WHEN
GUSTS NEAR 20-40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THESE TOO COULD BRIEFLY
APPROACH ADVISORY LEVEL, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED GUSTS
AT THE LEVEL HAS A SMALL WINDOW.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY THE AREA TRANSITIONS TO MORE ACTIVE AND
SNOWIER PATTERN, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY
MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATION AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE SNOW IN THE LOWLANDS. THIS COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO MOUNTAIN PASSES AND EVEN SOME MODEST IMPACTS AROUND
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AROUND THE NORTH IDAHO AND NEAR THE WA/ID
BORDER. THE SPOKANE METRO COULD SEE SOME SNOW TOO. THE FOCUS
RIGHT NOW IN MORE REGION-WIDE IMPACT IS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN THE HIGHER SNOW FOCUS MOVES INTO THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LESS SNOW.
THESE ARE SOME PROBABILITIES FOR 12-HOUR SNOW AMOUNT AT SELECT
PASSES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AM:
FOR >6":
STEVENS PASS: 95-100%
SNOQUALMIE: 95-100%
LOOKOUT PASS: 85%
FOR >=12":
STEVENS PASS: 95%
SNOQUALMIE: 85%
LOOKOUT PASS: 10%
IN SELECT LOWLAND LOCATIONS:
FOR >=1":
SPOKANE: 50%
DEER PARK:90%
SANDPOINT: 95%
COLVILLE: 60%
PULLMAN: 25%
FOR >=3":
SPOKANE: 4%
DEER PARK: 35%
SANDPOINT: 75%
COLVILLE: 3%
PULLMAN: 0%
THESE NUMBERS ARE BASED ON THE NBM FORECAST.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY: THE PATTERN SETTLES DOWN SOMEWHAT. SNOW
CHANCES LINGER AROUND THE MOUNTAIN ZONE, WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
ALONG THE WA/ID BORDER. SOME MODERATE SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE CASCADE CREST, BUT ELSEWHERE AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHTER. /SOLVEIG
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING PERIODIC PRECIPITATION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR NEAR GEG/SFF/COE/PUW/LWS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN DECLINE TO MVFR/IFR LATER THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH RAIN COMING IN. EAT AND MWH WILL
LINGER UNDER IFR CONDITIONS, LOCALLY MVFR, THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES LATER
SUNDAY MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN, WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLY
MIXED IN AROUND THE NORTHERN VALLEYS LIKE COLVILLE AND
SANDPOINT. LLWS WILL FEATURE NEAR GEG/SFF/COE/PUW TONIGHT TO
EARLY SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
BECOME GUSTY AT MANY TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH
POSSIBLE GUSTS NEAR 30-35KTS NEAR GEG/SFF, LOCALLY LOWER NEAR
PUW/COE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRANSITION FROM FROM VFR TO MVFR
AT GEG/SFF/COE/PUW LATER SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY,
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE HOUR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN IFR
CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT EAT/MWH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 36 46 33 40 28 35 / 80 80 50 30 0 70
COEUR D'ALENE 36 44 33 39 29 36 / 90 90 60 60 10 80
PULLMAN 39 45 34 40 29 36 / 80 80 60 40 10 60
LEWISTON 41 50 37 45 33 41 / 50 60 40 30 10 30
COLVILLE 33 43 30 40 25 35 / 100 90 50 50 10 80
SANDPOINT 35 41 32 37 29 34 / 100 100 70 80 30 90
KELLOGG 38 41 34 37 30 35 / 90 100 70 80 30 80
MOSES LAKE 34 47 30 41 27 38 / 60 30 20 0 0 30
WENATCHEE 35 42 31 40 29 37 / 80 40 20 10 0 50
OMAK 35 42 31 39 28 35 / 90 40 20 10 0 40
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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