199
FXUS66 KOTX 040903
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
103 AM PST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ROUNDS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH MONDAY.
- BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY MORNING.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW IN THE VALLEYS.
SYNOPSIS
OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH BREEZY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE BASIN. A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW, ALONG WITH RAIN OR SNOW IN THE
VALLEYS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY AND MONDAY: A LOW IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN BC AND PUSHING
WAVES OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE INLAND NW. THESE BANDS WILL BRING
MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW, WITH A LOCALIZED MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW NEAR THE CASCADES WHERE COLDER AIR REMAINS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE HIGH THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW MOVES EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
LOWLAND RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
CHANGES TO ZONAL, PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION
AS DRIER AIR FILLS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW IS
EXPECTED FOR CASCADE CREST AND IDAHO PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY.
WHILE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOWER FOR MONDAY, THE LOWLANDS MAY SEE
A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR AT TIMES ALL SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING.
OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
UP TO 3 INCHES, WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FOR THE
LOWLANDS.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY BUT HAVE PULLED BACK
SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. WITH THE MORNING SEEING GUSTS
NEAR 20-35 MPH. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN AND
NORTHERN BLUES MOUNTAIN AREA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: A DECENT COLD AIRMASS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION STARTING TUESDAY AND PUT THE INLAND NORTHWEST ON THE SNOW
SIDE OF THE 540MB LINE. SEVERAL WAVES OF PRECIP WILL IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATION AND EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE SNOW IN THE LOWLANDS. POTENTIAL
TRAVEL IMPACTS OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES EXPECTED. LOWLAND PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST WA AND NORTH ID COULD ALSO HAVE TRAVEL IMPACTS.
THE CASCADE PASSES ARE ESTIMATED TO RECEIVE AROUND 18 INCHES.
WARM AIR TRAPPED ALONG THE CASCADE VALLEYS ARE GIVING LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR ANY SNOW AMOUNTS. ENSEMBLES ARE GIVING A LARGE
SPREAD OF 2 INCHES TO AROUND 12 INCHES. LOOKOUT PASS IS
ESTIMATED TO GET AROUND 10 INCHES. MOST OF THE LOWLAND LOCATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO GET AN ESTIMATED 1 TO 3 INCHES. NORTHEAST WA
AND NORTH ID HAVE A CHANCE FOR AN ESTIMATED 2 TO 5 INCHES.
THESE ARE SOME PROBABILITIES FOR 12-HOUR SNOW AMOUNT AT SELECT
PASSES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AM BASED ON THE NBM FORECAST:
FOR >6":
STEVENS PASS: 95-100%
SNOQUALMIE: 95-100%
LOOKOUT PASS: 90%
FOR >=12":
STEVENS PASS: 90%
SNOQUALMIE: 75%
LOOKOUT PASS: 20%
IN SELECT LOWLAND LOCATIONS:
FOR >=1":
SPOKANE: 20%
DEER PARK:60%
SANDPOINT: 90%
COLVILLE: 30%
PULLMAN: 25%
FOR >=3":
SPOKANE: 0%
DEER PARK: 20%
SANDPOINT: 60%
COLVILLE: 0%
PULLMAN: 0%
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY: A RIDGE WILL BEGIN DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AND
BRING A STABLE PATTERN TO THE REGION. MOISTURE BANDS WILL BE
PUSHED NORTH. SNOW CHANCES LINGER AROUND THE MOUNTAIN ZONE,
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG THE WA/ID BORDER. SOME MODERATE SNOWS
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, BUT ELSEWHERE AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHTER. /JDC
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING PERIODIC PRECIPITATION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR NEAR GEG/SFF/COE/PUW/LWS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THEN DECLINE TO MVFR/IFR LATER EARLY SUNDAY
WITH RAIN COMING IN. EAT AND MWH WILL LINGER UNDER IFR
CONDITIONS, LOCALLY MVFR, THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES LATER SUNDAY MORNING TO
LATE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN, WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED IN AROUND THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS LIKE COLVILLE AND SANDPOINT. LLWS WILL FEATURE NEAR
GEG/SFF/COE/PUW TONIGHT TO EARLY SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY AT MANY TAF SITES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS NEAR 30-35KTS NEAR GEG/SFF,
LOCALLY LOWER NEAR PUW/COE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRANSITION FROM FROM VFR TO MVFR
AT GEG/SFF/COE/PUW EARLY SUNDAY, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
PRECISE HOUR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT EAT/MWH
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 45 32 40 29 35 28 / 90 50 20 0 80 70
COEUR D'ALENE 44 32 40 29 37 28 / 100 70 50 10 80 90
PULLMAN 45 33 40 29 36 30 / 90 70 40 10 70 90
LEWISTON 50 37 45 32 42 35 / 70 50 30 10 50 80
COLVILLE 44 30 40 25 34 23 / 90 50 40 10 90 70
SANDPOINT 41 32 37 29 34 28 / 90 80 80 30 90 100
KELLOGG 41 34 37 29 35 31 / 100 80 80 20 90 100
MOSES LAKE 46 29 41 27 39 28 / 40 10 0 0 40 10
WENATCHEE 42 31 40 29 37 29 / 50 20 0 0 60 40
OMAK 41 31 39 28 35 25 / 40 20 0 0 50 30
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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