308
FXUS66 KOTX 041754
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
954 AM PST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ROUNDS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH MONDAY.
- BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY MORNING.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW IN THE VALLEYS.
SYNOPSIS
OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH BREEZY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE BASIN. A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW, ALONG WITH RAIN OR SNOW IN THE
VALLEYS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY AND MONDAY: A LOW IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN BC AND PUSHING
WAVES OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE INLAND NW. THESE BANDS WILL BRING
MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW, WITH A LOCALIZED MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW NEAR THE CASCADES WHERE COLDER AIR REMAINS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE HIGH THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW MOVES EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
LOWLAND RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
CHANGES TO ZONAL, PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION
AS DRIER AIR FILLS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW IS
EXPECTED FOR CASCADE CREST AND IDAHO PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY.
WHILE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOWER FOR MONDAY, THE LOWLANDS MAY SEE
A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR AT TIMES ALL SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING.
OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
UP TO 3 INCHES, WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FOR THE
LOWLANDS.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY BUT HAVE PULLED BACK
SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. WITH THE MORNING SEEING GUSTS
NEAR 20-35 MPH. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN AND
NORTHERN BLUES MOUNTAIN AREA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: A DECENT COLD AIRMASS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION STARTING TUESDAY AND PUT THE INLAND NORTHWEST ON THE SNOW
SIDE OF THE 540MB LINE. SEVERAL WAVES OF PRECIP WILL IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATION AND EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE SNOW IN THE LOWLANDS. POTENTIAL
TRAVEL IMPACTS OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES EXPECTED. LOWLAND PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST WA AND NORTH ID COULD ALSO HAVE TRAVEL IMPACTS.
THE CASCADE PASSES ARE ESTIMATED TO RECEIVE AROUND 18 INCHES.
WARM AIR TRAPPED ALONG THE CASCADE VALLEYS ARE GIVING LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR ANY SNOW AMOUNTS. ENSEMBLES ARE GIVING A LARGE
SPREAD OF 2 INCHES TO AROUND 12 INCHES. LOOKOUT PASS IS
ESTIMATED TO GET AROUND 10 INCHES. MOST OF THE LOWLAND LOCATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO GET AN ESTIMATED 1 TO 3 INCHES. NORTHEAST WA
AND NORTH ID HAVE A CHANCE FOR AN ESTIMATED 2 TO 5 INCHES.
THESE ARE SOME PROBABILITIES FOR 12-HOUR SNOW AMOUNT AT SELECT
PASSES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AM BASED ON THE NBM FORECAST:
FOR >6":
STEVENS PASS: 95-100%
SNOQUALMIE: 95-100%
LOOKOUT PASS: 90%
FOR >=12":
STEVENS PASS: 90%
SNOQUALMIE: 75%
LOOKOUT PASS: 20%
IN SELECT LOWLAND LOCATIONS:
FOR >=1":
SPOKANE: 20%
DEER PARK:60%
SANDPOINT: 90%
COLVILLE: 30%
PULLMAN: 25%
FOR >=3":
SPOKANE: 0%
DEER PARK: 20%
SANDPOINT: 60%
COLVILLE: 0%
PULLMAN: 0%
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY: A RIDGE WILL BEGIN DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AND
BRING A STABLE PATTERN TO THE REGION. MOISTURE BANDS WILL BE
PUSHED NORTH. SNOW CHANCES LINGER AROUND THE MOUNTAIN ZONE,
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG THE WA/ID BORDER. SOME MODERATE SNOWS
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, BUT ELSEWHERE AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHTER. /JDC
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: PERIODIC PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS
MOVE AWAY FROM GEG/SFF/COE/PUW BETWEEN 18-22Z, WITH VFR/LCL MVFR
CONDITIONS BECOMING MOSTLY VFR. THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH CLOUDS COMING BACK
DOWN TOWARD MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR AT THAT PRECIPITATION WINDS
DOWN INTO EARLY MONDAY AM. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LINGER NEAR
EAT THIS MORNING, SOME DEEP MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVEL. HOWEVER
WITH THE WAVE PUSHING EAST MODELS SUGGEST A LIFT OF THAT FOG
TOWARD 21-22Z, GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR. LLWS IS FORECAST NEAR
GEG/SFF/COE/PUW WITH A STRONG LLJ ALOFT. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS TOO.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN TIMING FOR TAF SITES. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW/KLWS SEEING IFR OR LOWER, WITH
HIGHER CONFIDENCE INDICATING MVFR CEILINGS PERIODICALLY WITH
RAIN. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS 20-30KTS FOR
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW, WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED NEAR KGEG/KSFF.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED IFR/LIFR AT KEAT, THEN
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A TRANSITION TO MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 21-22Z BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY. AROUND MWH MODELS SHOW MVFR/IFR STRATUS JUST NORTH 50%
OF GUIDANCE KEEPS THAT AWAY FROM MWH THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
OTHERS EXPAND IT BACK IN. I BRING SOME MVFR VISIBILITY INTO THAT
AREA AGAIN HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY. YET WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
NEARBY STRATUS TO COME BACK IN EARLIER.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 45 32 40 29 35 28 / 90 50 20 0 80 70
COEUR D'ALENE 44 32 40 29 37 28 / 100 70 50 10 80 90
PULLMAN 45 33 40 29 36 30 / 90 70 40 10 70 90
LEWISTON 50 37 45 32 42 35 / 70 50 30 10 50 80
COLVILLE 44 30 40 25 34 23 / 90 50 40 10 90 70
SANDPOINT 41 32 37 29 34 28 / 90 80 80 30 90 100
KELLOGG 41 34 37 29 35 31 / 100 80 80 20 90 100
MOSES LAKE 46 29 41 27 39 28 / 40 10 0 0 40 10
WENATCHEE 42 31 40 29 37 29 / 50 20 0 0 60 40
OMAK 41 31 39 28 35 25 / 40 20 0 0 50 30
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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