729
FXUS66 KOTX 051206
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
406 AM PST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ROUNDS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH MONDAY.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW IN THE
VALLEYS.
SYNOPSIS
ROUNDS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH WITH BREEZY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN WASHINGTON.
A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MODERATE
TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW, ALONG WITH RAIN OR SNOW IN THE VALLEYS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
...ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW TO IMPACT THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY: A DECAYING SHORTWAVE AND WEAK COLD FRONT ARE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND
LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW. SNOW AMOUNTS BY SUNRISE AT THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES LOOK LIGHT - 2 TO 4 INCHES AT STEVENS PASS AND 1 TO 3
INCHES AT LOOKOUT PASS. CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE
DAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW IN THE ID
PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 30S TO
40S TODAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE
IN ALASKA WILL BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW
AND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY.
SNOW - THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS PWATS SURGE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO AROUND 150% OF
NORMAL IN THE WARM SECTOR. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
1000 FT IN NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON TO 3000 FT FOR THE CAMAS
PRAIRIE, SUPPORTING SNOW FOR THE ONSET OF THE EVENT IN MANY
LOWLAND LOCATIONS. THE SNOW FORECAST GETS TRICKY INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE VALLEYS AS MODELS SHOW TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE MID 30S FOR LOCATIONS AROUND AND NORTH OF I-90 AND EAST
OF US-195. SNOW AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF IN THE LOWLANDS IN THE
EVENING AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. CHANCES OF 1” OF
SNOW THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING LOOK PRETTY
DECENT IN THE LOWLANDS OF EASTERN WA AND THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE: SPOKANE INTERNATIONAL AP: 80%, CDA: 70%, PULLMAN:
40%, SANDPOINT: 50%, KELLOGG: 40%. AN ADDITIONAL SYSTEM TAKING A
SIMILAR TRACK WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL GET
HAMMERED BY SNOW - AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET FOR STEVENS PASS THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING AND 1 TO 2 FEET FOR LOOKOUT PASS.
WIND - PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY
AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN SOUTHERN AB, LEADING TO BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH GUSTING AROUND 35-45 MPH IN
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WA. THERE IS A 75% CHANCE FOR SPOKANE
INTERNATIONAL TO GUST TO 45 MPH AND A 20% CHANCE TO GUST TO 50
MPH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR EXACT WIND GUST VALUES AS MODELS
BRING THE HIGHEST WINDS ALOFT IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM -
NOT TRADITIONALLY KNOWN FOR MIXING DOWN STRONGER GUSTS AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS USUALLY MORE STABLE. WINDS LOOK TO BE BREEZY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WELL WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS AND GUSTS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT (> 85%)
WITH THE PATTERN TRENDING TOWARDS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THIS
WEEKEND BRINGING MUCH QUIETER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. DB
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: PRECIPITATION HAS MOSTLY MOVED OUT OF THE TAF SITES
AND INTO THE ID PANHANDLE APART FOR KPUW/KLWS, WHERE IT IS SET
TO LAST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS. FOR KLWS, SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z. CEILINGS FOR
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW/KMWH ARE SET TO STAY AT VFR. FOR
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE, THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR CEILINGS TO LOWER TO
MVFR AROUND 16-17Z. THEY'LL RETURN TO VFR AROUND 20Z, BUT MODELS
ARE INDICATING DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR AROUND 6Z TOMORROW. FOR
KLWS/KEAT, CEILINGS ARE AT LIFR AND PROJECTED TO STAY THAT WAY
THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z. FOR KEAT, CEILINGS WILL STAY AT IFR/LIFR
THROUGH 20Z. RIGHT AROUND 12Z TOMORROW, WINDS WILL PICK UP, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35KTS POSSIBLE NEXT TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS DEGRADING TO
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY AM AT KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW AND
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED LIFR CONDITIONS AT
KEAT/KLWS THROUGH AROUND 20Z. FOR KLWS, CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS STAYING THROUGH 20Z IS LOWER. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IS
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE TIME. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS
DEGRADING MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 40 30 37 29 37 27 / 20 0 90 70 30 50
COEUR D'ALENE 40 30 37 30 36 28 / 60 10 90 90 50 70
PULLMAN 40 30 37 31 38 28 / 70 0 80 90 40 60
LEWISTON 45 33 43 36 44 32 / 60 10 50 90 20 40
COLVILLE 40 26 35 24 37 22 / 20 10 90 70 30 50
SANDPOINT 37 30 34 29 34 28 / 80 20 100 100 60 90
KELLOGG 37 31 35 31 34 28 / 90 10 90 100 80 80
MOSES LAKE 41 28 40 29 41 27 / 0 0 40 10 10 10
WENATCHEE 41 29 38 29 39 28 / 0 0 60 40 30 20
OMAK 40 29 37 26 37 24 / 10 10 40 20 10 20
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY
FOR WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY.
ID...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN
PANHANDLE.
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