572
FXUS66 KOTX 060606
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1006 PM PST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW IN THE VALLEYS.
- GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
SYNOPSIS
A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN
SNOW ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND VALLEY RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. CONDITIONS DRY OUT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
...ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO IMPACT THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CIRCULATING AROUND A LOW IN ALASKA WILL
BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW AND SOME
LOWLAND SNOW TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY.
SNOW: THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO
AROUND 150% OF NORMAL. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 1000
FT IN NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON TO 2500 FT FOR THE CAMAS
PRAIRIE - LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW FOR MANY LOWLAND
LOCATIONS AT THE START OF THE EVENT. LOWLAND PRECIPITATION TYPE
GETS MORE CHALLENGING TO FORECAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
SNOW LEVELS RISE TO BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500 FEET AND TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. LOWLAND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-90
WILL LIKELY SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN WHILE LOWLANDS NORTH OF
I-90 WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO STAY AS SNOW OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX.
SNOW AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF IN THE LOWLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.
BEST CHANCES (50 TO 80 PERCENT)FOR AT LEAST AN INCH OF LOWLAND
SNOW TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WILL BE FOUND IN
NORTHEASTERN WA AND NORTH ID INCLUDING SPOKANE INTERNATIONAL,
SANDPOINT, AND DEER PARK.
A SECOND WAVE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE FORECAST OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
2 TO 4 FEET FOR STEVENS PASS AND 1 TO 2 FEET FOR LOOKOUT PASS.
WIND: PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY
LEADING TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35-45
MPH IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WA. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WELL WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS AND GUSTS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
SHIFT TOWARD A DRY AND QUIET PATTERN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. /FEWKES
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: A LOW CONFIDENCE TAF FORECAST WITH GENERAL
RESTRICTIONS OCCURRING AT THE TERMINALS ON A VERY LOCAL SCALE.
IN CENTRAL WA, A SMALL BANK OF FOG BETWEEN MWH-EAT WILL SLOSH
BACK AND FORTH WITH CIGS AS LOW AS 100 FT AGL. FOR NORTH IDAHO
AND EASTERN THIRD OF WA, FAVORABLE UPSLOPING FLOW IS RESULTING
IN SCATTERED MVFR STRATUS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FILL IN
AND LOWER. FURTHER SOUTH AROUND LWS, AS MID CLOUDS CLEAR OUT
AROUND 08Z...THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHALLOW GROUND
FOG TO DEVELOP. IN GENERAL, MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE ONGOING
SITUATIONS WELL LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE FOR FUTURE TRENDS. ONE
COMPONENT TO THE FORECAST THAT LEANS TOWARD LESS LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AND SOME BREAKS, POTENTIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
WOULD BE INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WITH MARGINAL LLWS AROUND
PUW/EAT. OTHERWISE, MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AFTER 10Z WITH SNOW DEVELOPING IN FAR NE WA AND N ID AFTER
AROUND 15 TO 18Z. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACCUM AT COE, SZT, CQV, DEW. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACCUM AT PUW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR BROKEN MVFR CIGS AROUND N IDAHO AND NE
WA INCLUDING GEG-SFF-COE. LOW FOR PUW AND LWS. LOW CONFIDENCE
FOR EVOLUTION FOR EAT-MWH THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR RESTRICTIONS BEFORE 08Z...THEN CONFIDENCE DECREASES GOING
INTO TUE MORNING GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT. /SB
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 30 37 30 38 26 37 / 0 80 70 30 50 40
COEUR D'ALENE 30 37 31 37 27 35 / 0 90 90 50 80 60
PULLMAN 30 38 33 38 28 35 / 0 80 90 40 70 70
LEWISTON 33 42 37 45 32 43 / 10 60 90 30 40 40
COLVILLE 29 33 27 34 23 32 / 10 80 70 30 50 40
SANDPOINT 31 32 29 33 25 29 / 20 90 100 60 90 80
KELLOGG 33 36 31 35 28 31 / 10 90 100 70 90 90
MOSES LAKE 28 41 29 43 26 42 / 0 40 10 10 10 10
WENATCHEE 30 39 30 39 27 40 / 0 60 40 30 20 30
OMAK 30 35 26 34 22 32 / 10 40 30 10 10 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 10 AM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM PST WEDNESDAY
FOR NORTHEAST BLUE MOUNTAINS.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY
FOR WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY.
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 10 AM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY
FOR CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS.
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