141
FXUS66 KOTX 061152
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
352 AM PST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW IN THE
VALLEYS.
- GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
SYNOPSIS
A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN
SNOW ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SOME VALLEY SNOW TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. CONDITIONS DRY OUT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
...ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO IMPACT THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH IN ALASKA WILL BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND SOME LOWLAND SNOW TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.
SNOW - THE FIRST WAVE OF SNOW WILL ARRIVE EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
CASCADES AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST
IS VERY TRICKY FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO
AS TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL FOR SNOW IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS INDICATE
PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW FOR THE SPOKANE AREA (AROUND 11AM)
AND MOST LIKELY STAY AT SNOW ABOVE 2000 FEET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AROUND 1-3 INCHES FOR THE SPOKANE/CDA
METRO WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ABOVE 2500 FEET. BELOW 2000 FEET,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND A
DUSTING. THE EXACT SNOW AMOUNTS CARRY VERY LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE
SENSITIVITY OF MARGINAL NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS. WITH PRECIPITATION
ARRIVING A FEW HOURS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ON THE PALOUSE, THAT
WILL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF HEATING, LEADING TO LESSER
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PALOUSE
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE A SIMILAR OUTCOME AS THE SPOKANE
METRO. FAR NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE VALLEYS WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE AROUND 2-5 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
METALINE FALLS HAS A 75% CHANCE TO SEE 4+" BY 4 AM WED. THOSE
CHANCES FOR 4+" BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE 75% FOR ATHOL, 60% FOR
RATHDRUM, 50% FOR PLUMMER, AND 45% FOR SANDPOINT. THE LOCAL
EXCEPTION IN NORTH IDAHO IS BONNERS FERRY WILL SEE DOWNSLOPING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST, LIMITING SNOWFALL TO AROUND AN INCH. THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES WILL BE HAMMERED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MUCH OF ALL DAY
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. STEVENS PASS HAS A 50-90% CHANCE TO SEE
1"/HR SNOWFALL RATES FROM 12 PM TO 3 AM WEDNESDAY. OVERALL EXPECTING
AROUND 2 FEET OF SNOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE. SNOW AMOUNTS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AT LOOKOUT PASS WILL BE LIGHTER AROUND A FOOT.
WIND - PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS LEE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN SOUTHERN AB, LEADING TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH GUSTING AROUND 35-45 MPH IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN WA. THERE IS A 75% CHANCE FOR SPOKANE INTERNATIONAL TO GUST
TO 40 MPH AND A 20% CHANCE TO GUST TO 50 MPH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR
EXACT WIND GUST VALUES AS MODELS BRING THE HIGHEST WINDS ALOFT IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM - NOT TRADITIONALLY KNOWN FOR MIXING
DOWN THE STRONGEST GUSTS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS USUALLY MORE
STABLE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE VERY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL CONTINUE MAINLY IN THE
CASCADES AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WITH PWATS AROUND
60-80%, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER. WITH COLDER AIR IN
PLACE, THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN EXTREME EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND THE ID PANHANDLE. GENERALLY EXPECT AROUND A COUPLE
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN THE SPOKANE AREA AND AROUND 1-3" IN THE ID
PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING A DRYING TREND TO
THE REGION HEADING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4
AM FRIDAY, STEVENS PASS HAS A 90% CHANCE OF 1 FOOT OF ADDITIONAL
SNOW. THOSE CHANCES DECREASE TO 25% FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2 FEET.
LOOKOUT PASS HAS A 10% CHANCE OF AN ADDITIONAL FOOT OF SNOW.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STICKING AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO MONDAY BRINGING MUCH QUIETER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. DB
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: PLACES OTHER THAN KGEG/KSFF/KLWS ARE AT MVFR/VFR. FOG
IN KLWS HAS LOWERED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO LIFR, WHICH
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN PICKING UP ON. GIVEN YESTERDAY'S TRENDS OF
IMPROVEMENT ONLY AFTER PRECIPITATION MOVED THROUGH, AM KEEPING
THE FOG THROUGH 18Z, WHEN RAIN MOVES IN AND IMPROVES CEILINGS
SLIGHTLY. THERE IS A SIMILAR SITUATION FOR KGEG/KSFF, THOUGH
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING ONLY WITH CEILINGS. OVERALL, THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE SITUATION REGARDING KGEG/KSFF/KLWS, WHICH WILL BE
DISCUSSED BELOW. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THE
PRECIPITATION. KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW WILL ALL SEE SNOW THROUGH
AROUND 02Z, THEN WILL TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION.
KMWH/KEAT LOOKS TO SEE A MOSTLY RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH SNOW LEVELS
RISING FASTER THAN OTHER TAF SITES. KLWS LOOKS TO SEE MOSTLY
RAIN. ASIDE FROM LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN KLWS/KPUW, RAIN
LOOKS TO MOSTLY END BY 10Z, BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING,
HAVE PUT IN PROB30S TO COVER PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY ENDING
EARLIER. ADDITIONALLY, AT MOST TAF SITES, WINDS WILL PICK UP
AROUND 19Z, WITH GUSTS 10+KTS FOR ALL SITES BUT HIGH CHANCES
(50-70%) FOR GUSTS ABOVE 30KTS POSSIBLE FOR
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WITH MOST MODELS
STRUGGLING ON CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FOR DIFFERENT AREAS, A
BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY ARRIVES WITH THIS PRECIPITATION FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO TIMING IN IMPROVED CEILINGS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF INCOMING PRECIPITATION, WITH
IMPROVED CEILINGS AS THIS PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TRANSITION TIMING BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW. MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAGNITUDE OF WIND GUSTS, BUT MODERATE WITH
TIMING. /AS
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 35 30 38 26 35 27 / 90 70 30 60 30 10
COEUR D'ALENE 35 30 37 26 35 27 / 90 100 40 80 60 30
PULLMAN 37 32 38 27 34 30 / 80 90 30 80 60 40
LEWISTON 43 36 45 32 41 33 / 70 90 20 50 40 30
COLVILLE 35 24 37 21 36 19 / 80 70 40 50 30 10
SANDPOINT 34 29 35 27 32 25 / 100 100 60 90 70 30
KELLOGG 35 31 34 27 31 26 / 90 100 80 90 90 60
MOSES LAKE 40 29 42 27 43 29 / 40 20 10 10 10 0
WENATCHEE 38 30 39 27 40 30 / 60 50 30 20 20 10
OMAK 37 26 37 24 35 25 / 40 30 10 10 10 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHEAST BLUE MOUNTAINS.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MOSES
LAKE AREA.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PST
THIS EVENING FOR SPOKANE AREA.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR WESTERN
CHELAN COUNTY.
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST
THIS EVENING FOR COEUR D'ALENE AREA-IDAHO PALOUSE.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS.
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