326
FXUS66 KOTX 071214
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
414 AM PST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW IN THE VALLEYS.
- GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY.
- TURNING DRIER AND WARMER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW, PERIODS OF LOWLAND RAIN AND SNOW,
AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN A PATTERN SHIFT
BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES THROUGH
THURSDAY...
TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW: THE COLD FRONT THAT USHERED IN THE WINTER
SYSTEM YESTERDAY IS MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND IN THE NORTHERN
IDAHO PANHANDLE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. THUS,
AROUND THIS TIME, WINTER PRODUCTS IN NORTHERN IDAHO AND EASTERN
WASHINGTON WILL EXPIRE. MAIN IMPACTS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
MORNING FOR MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL BE WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS,
AND FOR THE LOWLANDS WILL BE RAIN AND MELTED SNOW REFREEZING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SPOKANE HAS A 63% CHANCE OF SEEING
TEMPERATURES DROP TO FREEZING OR BELOW THIS MORNING, AND THOSE
PROBABILITIES INCREASE AS YOU MOVE NORTHWARD. REFREEZING OF RAIN
AND MELTED SNOW WILL RESULT IN SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS DURING
THIS MORNING'S COMMUTE.
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
THOUGH IT WILL BE LESS ROBUST THAN THE PREVIOUS FRONT. WHILE
PWATS FROM THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WERE 100-150% OF NORMAL, PWATS
WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE 70-80% OF NORMAL. THE CASCADES
WILL SEE THE MOST SNOW DURING THIS SECOND SYSTEM, WITH STEVENS
AND SNOQUALMIE PASSES HAVING A 45%+ CHANCE OF AN ADDITIONAL 9
INCHES OF SNOWFALL THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW. LOOKOUT PASS
LOOKS TO RECEIVE LESS, WITH A 40% CHANCE OF AN ADDITIONAL 4
INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DUE TO CONTINUED
IMPACTS TO MOUNTAIN PASS TRAVEL, THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
THE CASCADES WILL LAST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START OUT AROUND 2000 FEET BUT QUICKLY
DROP TO BELOW 500 FEET, MEANING VALLEYS AND LOWLANDS WILL SEE
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. AS WITH YESTERDAY, THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE WILL SEE THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS IN THE LOWLAND AREAS,
WITH SANDPOINT HAVING A 90% CHANCE OF 1 INCH OF SNOW OR MORE
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SPOKANE AND PULLMAN/MOSCOW HAVE A
25% CHANCE OF AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW, AND COLVILLE HAS A 15%
CHANCE. LOWLAND IMPACTS AGAIN LOOK TO BE MELTED SNOW REFREEZING
OVERNIGHT, CREATING SLICK ROADS DURING THE THURSDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. PROBABILITIES FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES REACHING 32
DEGREES OR LOWER ARE MUCH HIGHER ON THURSDAY MORNING, WITH A
NEARLY 70%+ CHANCE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS COLDER
AIR IS USHERED IN WITH THE FRONT.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL AGAIN INCREASE AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA. SUSTAINED WINDS 15-25 MPH ARE
EXPECTED, WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WASHINGTON. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ON FRIDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE AREA, BRINGING DRY AND WARMING WEATHER TO THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEKEND. LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS
WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, THEN CLEAR. ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS
UNANIMOUSLY SHOW HIGHER PRESSURE CONTINUING THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE CASCADES
AND IDAHO PANHANDLE ON MONDAY, BUT THESE TOTALS WILL BE MINIMAL.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANTICIPATED TO STAY OVER THE PNW INTO THE
NEXT WEEK, BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM THE CPC SHOW
INCREASED CHANCES OF LOWER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. /AS
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: THE FIRST SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED OVER THE IDAHO PANHANDLE
AND IS BRINGING CONTINUING PRECIPITATION TO KCOE, KPUW, AND
KLWS. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR ALL
TAF SITES BUT KPUW TO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ROUGHLY 22-00Z, WHICH IS WHEN THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. CEILINGS AT KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, AND KPUW WILL
DEGRADE TO IFR CONDITIONS, WHILE OTHER SITES WILL GET DOWN TO
MVFR. FOR KMWH AND KEAT, THE PRECIPITATION WILL START AROUND
21Z, AND FOR THE OTHER SITES, PRECIP WILL START AROUND 00Z. IT
WILL LAST THROUGH ROUGHLY 9Z FOR KGEG/KSFF/KCOE, BUT WILL LAST
INTO THE NEXT FORECAST PERIOD FOR KLWS/KPUW. WINDS HAVE ALREADY
BEGUN DECREASING BUT MODELS ARE FAVORING MORE GUSTY WINDS
20-25KTS FOR KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL, MODELS
HAVE DONE BETTER TODAY WITH CEILINGS THAN THEY HAVE BEEN
RECENTLY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIP FALLING AT KEAT AND KMWH. LOW TO
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FOR TIMING OF TRANSITION TO A RAIN- SNOW
MIX FOR SITES THAT ARE STARTING OUT AS SNOW AS MODELS RIGHT NOW
FAVOR MOSTLY SNOW FOR AREAS STARTING AS SNOW. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS RAMPING UP FOR KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, AND KPUW.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z FOR KGEG, KSFF,
KCOE, AND KPUW. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT OTHER
TAF SITES. /AS
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 37 26 35 26 38 26 / 10 80 30 10 10 0
COEUR D'ALENE 37 27 35 25 38 27 / 20 90 60 20 30 0
PULLMAN 37 27 34 29 40 28 / 30 80 50 30 30 0
LEWISTON 44 31 42 33 45 31 / 20 60 30 30 10 0
COLVILLE 37 24 36 19 35 22 / 20 80 30 0 10 0
SANDPOINT 35 27 32 24 34 27 / 40 90 80 30 40 10
KELLOGG 34 27 31 27 36 27 / 50 90 90 60 60 10
MOSES LAKE 43 26 43 28 43 27 / 20 20 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 38 27 40 30 42 28 / 30 30 10 0 0 0
OMAK 37 24 37 25 37 27 / 10 20 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR NORTHEAST
BLUE MOUNTAINS.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR WESTERN
CHELAN COUNTY.
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS.
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