385
FXUS66 KOTX 262149
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
149 PM PST MON JAN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER FOR TUESDAY
- INCOMING SYSTEM WILL BRING MILDER AND WETTER PATTERN STARTING
WEDNESDAY
- MOUNTAIN PASS SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
- WINTRY MIX FOR BASIN AND VALLEYS ON WEDNESDAY
SYNOPSIS
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR MOST OF TUESDAY BEFORE A
MILDER AND POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN DEVELOPS. WINTER WEATHER
EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS TURN WARMER
AND WETTER WITH MIDWEEK SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY: A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE REGION. THE CLOUDS WILL HELP
INSULATE THE REGION AND LIMIT THE DEVELOP OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS
TONIGHT. PROBABILITY OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN A MILE IS AROUND
10%. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AS AN OFF SHORE LOW
SHIFTS BEGINS TO PRESS INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST AS THE LOW PRESSES INTO THE REGION. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
WEAKENED AND POSITIONED OVER WESTERN MONTANA, A MILDER,
SATURATED SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP WILL START OVER THE
CASCADES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. PRECIP TYPE FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE SNOW WITH THE CASCADES
RECEIVING A 24 HOUR 25-75 PERCENTILE SPREAD OF 2-8 INCHES ALONG
THE CREST AND 1-5 INCHES ON THE EAST SLOPES. ENSEMBLES HAVE
DECREASED THE SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL HAVE LESS THAN 50% CHANCE OF HALF AN INCH OF SNOW
WITH A WINTRY MIX EXPECTED. POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BASIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ICE ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO MORE THAN A TRACE.
WINTER WEATHER COULD CAUSE ISSUES WITH THE WEDNESDAY COMMUTES AS
WARMER AIR STRUGGLES TO MIX TO THE SURFACE ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CONTINUED WARM AIR FLOW
WILL MAKE PRECIP TYPE CHANGE FROM SNOW TO RAIN. ENSEMBLE
INCONSISTENCY MAKES TIMING THE CHANGE DIFFICULT. AS NOTED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, NBM IS WARMING THE VALLEYS QUICKER THAN
OTHERS. FOR THE BASIN, SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN ON THURSDAY. THE
VALLEYS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SNOW
LEVELS START FRIDAY AT 4000 FT BEFORE CLIMBING TO 5000 FT FOR
SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB FROM UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ON
WEDNESDAY TO UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S BY SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. BY SUNDAY, THE LOW EXITS THE
REGION AND A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
IT WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER QUICK SHORTWAVE TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIP TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY. /JDC
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FLATTENING TODAY WITH A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN PASSING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. /JDC
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 21 37 28 38 32 39 / 0 0 10 40 30 50
COEUR D'ALENE 21 38 27 38 32 40 / 0 0 10 50 30 50
PULLMAN 26 40 30 40 34 41 / 0 0 20 50 20 30
LEWISTON 27 44 33 45 36 47 / 0 0 10 30 10 20
COLVILLE 18 34 25 36 29 37 / 0 0 10 30 30 70
SANDPOINT 21 35 27 35 32 38 / 0 0 10 40 40 60
KELLOGG 26 41 32 36 35 39 / 0 0 10 70 40 60
MOSES LAKE 21 39 26 39 30 41 / 0 0 10 20 20 40
WENATCHEE 24 37 28 38 31 41 / 0 0 10 30 40 60
OMAK 22 36 27 38 31 40 / 0 0 0 10 20 40
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page