971
FXUS66 KOTX 271224
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
424 AM PST TUE JAN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER FOR TUESDAY
- INCOMING SYSTEM WILL BRING MILDER AND WETTER PATTERN STARTING
WEDNESDAY
- MOUNTAIN PASS SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
- WINTRY MIX FOR BASIN AND VALLEYS ON WEDNESDAY
SYNOPSIS
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR MOST OF TUESDAY BEFORE A
MILDER AND POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN DEVELOPS. WINTER WEATHER
EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS TURN WARMER
AND WETTER WITH MIDWEEK SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
TODAY: THE INLAND NW WILL CONTINUE TO SEE QUIET WEATHER, WITH A
RIDGE BUILDING IN BEFORE A TROUGH STARTS TO TAKE OVER. ANOTHER
SWATH OF MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF FEATURE
AROUND THE CASCADES AND CENTRAL WA THIS MORNING, THEN START
INCREASE OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER, WITH SOME LOW-END GUSTY
WINDS (10-20 MPH) FROM THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE PALOUSE TO
UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S, WITH SOME 40S
OVER SOUTHEAST WA AND LOWER ID. COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
THE CASCADES VALLEYS.
TONIGHT TO FRIDAY: A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS WILL MAKE THEIR
WAY ACROSS THE AREA THIS PERIOD, GRADUALLY DEEPENING MOISTURE AND
GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MIXED BAG
OF PRECIPITATION TYPES, STARTING AS A CHANCES FOR SNOW, FREEZING
RAIN AND RAIN WEDNESDAY TRANSITIONING TO MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWLAND
RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE FIRST
WAVE MOVES BY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE IN THE CASCADES
THROUGH SOUTHEAST WA AND THE LOWER ID PANHANDLE TONIGHT INTO PRE-
DAWN WEDNESDAY, WITH CHANCES EXPANDING INTO THE REST OF EASTERN WA
AND ID THROUGH THE MORNING AND LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCES BRIEFLY DECLINE WEDNESDAY EVENING, BUT A DEEPER SURGE OF
MOISTURE (WITH PWATS AROUND 150-200% OF NORMAL) ENVELOPS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY, BEFORE CHANCES
START TO RETREAT TO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY HAVE THE OVERALL HIGHEST POPS AND THEN AROUND THE CASCADES
AND NORTHEAST WA AND ID PANHANDLE MOUNTAIN ZONES. HOWEVER ALL
AREAS WILL HAVE A MODEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO MID-40S WEDNESDAY, UPPER 30S TO 40S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH SOME AREAS PUSHING INTO THE LOW 50S
FRIDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND L-C VALLEY.
PRECIPITATION-TYPES AND AMOUNTS: FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MODELS
SHOW AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP COLDER AIR IN
PLACE AROUND THE CASCADES TO NORTH-CENTRAL WA, WHILE SOME MILDER
AIR SURGES IN ALOFT AROUND SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WA TO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ID PANHANDLE. WHERE THIS MILDER AIR COUPLES
WITH SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN, WHILE SNOW WILL BE MORE
LIKELY MOST OTHER AREAS, SAVE FOR SOME GENERAL RAIN THREAT TOWARD
SOME OF THE SOUTHEAST VALLEYS AT TIMES, INCLUDING THE L-C VALLEY.
BUT EVEN THE L-C VALLEY COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX. FOR THE WINTRY MIX
AMOUNTS IT WILL BE DEPEND ON HOW MUCH LIQUID FALLS AND MODELS ARE
SHOWING 6-HOUR PRECIPITATION AROUND TRACE TO 0.05 INCHES, WITH
HIGHEST OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA INTO CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THE
OVERALL PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN IS HIGHEST OVER AROUND THE
PALOUSE AND LOWER UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN AND EVEN AROUND THE L-C
VALLEY AT AROUND 10-30%, BUT AT THIS TIME AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT.
WHERE SNOW FALLS IT LOOKS MOSTLY LIGHT, AT LESS THAN A HALF INCH
WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS. THE LARGEST EXCEPTION IS THE CASCADE CREST,
INCLUDING STEVENS PASS WHERE 3-5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE
AROUND 1 INCH IS POSSIBLE AROUND LOOKOUT PASS.
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING THE COLDER AIR
LINGERS NEAR THE SURFACE FROM THE CASCADES ACROSS THE COLUMBIA
BASIN TO NORTHEAST WA. SOME MILDER AIR LINGERS ALOFT AND THIS WILL
MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOCALIZED THREAT OF A WINTRY MIX,
INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN, AROUND THE CASCADES TO COLUMBIA BASIN
TOO, BUT MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF
SAID MILDER AIR ALOFT. SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW, BUT THERE IS A RISK.
OVERALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT BUT ANY ICE COULD IMPACT CONDITIONS.
HEADING THEN INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY, MILDER AIR WILL
MEAN MOSTLY LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX,
THOUGH SOME OF THAT COULD IMPACT THE HIGHER METHOW VALLEY TOO.
RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.05 TO 0.15 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY
TO FRIDAY, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS ZONES.
SATURDAY TO MONDAY: A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN
BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE PUSHES IN BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH THAT
SAID, MODELS DIVERGE OF THE DETAILS OF ITS EVOLUTION, WITH SOME
DEEPER WITH THE WAVE THAN OTHERS. EITHER SATURDAY WILL SEE A
RETREAT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS BY
AFTERNOON, THEN AN GRADUAL EXPANSION BACK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE LOWLAND RAIN AND HIGH
MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S, TO LOW 50S OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. /SOLVEIG
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE REGION TODAY
BUT CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OUTSIDE VIRGA. GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS BUT SOME LOW-GRADE BREEZY CONDITIONS (10-15 KTS) POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AROUND PUW AND COE. ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO
MOISTEN FROM TOP DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST 07-10Z WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING. A DEFINED WARM LAYER MAY RESULT IN
SOME MELTING AND BRIEF WINTRY MIX AS PROFILE IS COOLING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW. AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT OF A FEW HUNDRETHS OR LESS. GREATEST PROBABILITIES
FOR A FEW HUNDRETHS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
WA AND INTO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION
REACHING PUW, COE, SFF, GEG 10-12Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 07Z.
UNCERTAINTY IS EXACT TIMING OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION REACHING
PUW/LWS TO GEG/COE. BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITAITON ARRIVES IN
SOUTHERN BASIN AROUND RITZVILLE 07-09Z AND TRACKS TOWARD THE
ID/WA BORDER 10-12Z. TIMING MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN FUTURE
UPDATES. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT
MWH/EAT. OTHER UNCERTAINTY WILL BE PRECIP TYPE WHICH COULD START
AS LIGHT RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, ICE PELLETS, OR MELTING SNOW
BEFORE COLUMN COOLS TO SNOW. ENSEMBLES INDICATE A 20-30% CHANCE
FOR -FZRA AS PRECIPITATION TYPE WHILE THIS TRANSITION IS
OCCURRING. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LIGHT AND ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE TO FEW TENTHS. GIVEN
THE DRY AIR, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR ONLY BRIEF
FREEZING RAIN OR ICE PELLETS AT THE TERMINALS. /SB
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 30 21 36 28 37 31 / 0 0 0 10 40 30
COEUR D'ALENE 33 21 38 28 37 32 / 0 0 0 10 50 30
PULLMAN 34 26 40 31 39 33 / 0 0 0 20 60 20
LEWISTON 37 28 43 34 44 36 / 0 0 0 10 40 10
COLVILLE 30 18 34 25 37 28 / 0 0 0 0 30 40
SANDPOINT 31 21 34 28 35 32 / 0 0 0 0 40 40
KELLOGG 35 26 40 31 37 35 / 0 0 0 10 70 50
MOSES LAKE 33 22 38 26 39 30 / 0 0 0 20 10 30
WENATCHEE 34 25 34 28 38 31 / 0 0 0 20 20 40
OMAK 33 23 35 28 38 31 / 0 0 0 10 10 30
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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