429
FXUS66 KOTX 272306
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
306 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCOMING SYSTEM WILL BRING MILDER AND WETTER PATTERN STARTING
WEDNESDAY
- MOUNTAIN PASS SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
- WINTRY MIX FOR BASIN AND VALLEYS ON WEDNESDAY
SYNOPSIS
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR MOST OF TUESDAY BEFORE A
MILDER AND POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN DEVELOPS. WINTER WEATHER
EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS TURN WARMER
AND WETTER WITH MIDWEEK SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS, SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME STRATUS OVER THE AREA. TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS WASHINGTON AND
IDAHO, USHERING IN MOISTENING AND WARMING AIR. PWATS WITH THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL RISE TO 100-130 PERCENT OF NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY, DROP
BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, AND THEN SURGE TO 150-200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL BY THURSDAY. THIS INFLUX OF WARM AIR OVER TOP OF THE COLD AIR
CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. BY
FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE WARMED ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWLAND RAIN.
THE COMMUTE TOMORROW AND THURSDAY MORNING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE IMPACTED BY THIS WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION, WITH ENSEMBLE
MODELS SHOWING A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE BASIN AND SPOKANE/COEUR D'ALENE AREAS.
OUTSIDE OF FREEZING RAIN, CHANCES LEAN MORE TOWARDS SNOW THAN
RAIN INITIALLY. HOWEVER, PEOPLE SHOULD BE PREPARED TO GIVE
THEMSELVES MORE TIME TO GET TO THEIR DESTINATION BOTH TOMORROW
AND THURSDAY MORNING. BY THURSDAY EVENING, AS WARMER AIR
CONTINUES MOVING IN, SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE ENOUGH TO BRING
MOSTLY RAIN TO THE LOWLANDS AND SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS, WHICH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL
BE LIGHT, THOUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DOES HAVE A 20
PERCENT CHANCE AND ABOVE AT SEEING A WETTING RAIN (0.10 INCHES)
THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR SNOW, STEVENS PASS HAS AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SEEING FOUR INCHES OR MORE, AND LOOKOUT PASS HAS A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF TWO INCHES OR MORE.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: BY SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. EVEN WITH THE INFLUX OF WARM AND MOIST AIR KEEPING PWATS
ABOVE 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL, ONLY SHORT PERIODS OF LIGHT LOWLAND
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE CPC'S 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS INDICATE THE
SAME THING, WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. /AS
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: LIGHT STRATUS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
AROUND 10Z, WHICH IS WHEN OVERCAST SKIES WILL FILL IN AHEAD OF
THE INCOMING SYSTEM. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION
MOVING THROUGH AROUND 12Z AND BRINGING CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR/IFR.
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE A WINTRY MIX, WITH ENSEMBLES
FAVORING MOSTLY SNOW (50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE) AT GEG, SFF, AND
COE TO BEGIN WITH. HOWEVER, THERE IS A 10-25 PERCENT CHANCE OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN AT GEG AND COE FROM
12-14Z. NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR A MENTION IN THE TAF, BUT WORTH
NOTING HERE DUE TO POTENTIAL IMPACTS SHOULD CHANCES INCREASE,
WHICH WE'LL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON. CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN AND
MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION ARE HIGHER ACROSS PUW, WITH A 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN FROM 12-14Z. LWS HAS A NEARLY 90
PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING ONLY RAIN. AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT,
WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED FOR ACCUMULATIONS.
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 10Z. TIMING
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION REACHING GEG, SFF, COE, PUW, LWS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN, THOUGH MODELS ARE CIRCLING ARRIVAL AROUND 12Z. TIMING
MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. BIGGEST CONFIDENCE
ISSUES LIE WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE. WHILE THERE IS A 50 TO 60
PERCENT CHANCE OF GEG AND COE STARTING AS SNOW, THERE IS A 10-25
PERCENT CHANCE EACH OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. ALTERNATE
SCENARIO WITH BIGGEST IMPACTS FOR GEG AND COE WOULD BE THESE
CHANCES INCREASING AND A LIGHT GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING
AT THESE SITES. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN
AT PUW ARE MORE LIKELY, AND CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW ARE NEARLY
EQUAL, BUT STILL MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT BEST. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
RAIN AT LWS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR SKIES FOR MWH. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR SKIES FOR EAT UNTIL RIGHT NEAR THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD, WHERE ENSEMBLES SHOW CEILINGS DROPPING TO MVFR. /AS
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 28 37 30 40 35 42 / 20 50 30 70 50 60
COEUR D'ALENE 28 36 31 40 36 43 / 10 60 30 70 50 70
PULLMAN 31 39 33 40 36 44 / 20 60 20 50 40 40
LEWISTON 33 44 35 45 39 49 / 20 50 10 30 20 20
COLVILLE 26 36 28 37 33 39 / 10 40 40 90 60 80
SANDPOINT 28 34 30 37 35 40 / 0 60 40 90 70 90
KELLOGG 32 36 34 40 38 43 / 10 80 50 80 60 80
MOSES LAKE 27 39 30 41 34 42 / 20 20 30 60 40 30
WENATCHEE 29 38 32 39 36 40 / 20 30 50 70 50 40
OMAK 29 37 32 39 36 40 / 10 10 30 50 40 50
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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