693
FXUS66 KOTX 280611
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1011 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCOMING SYSTEM WILL BRING MILDER AND WETTER PATTERN STARTING
WEDNESDAY
- MOUNTAIN PASS SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
- WINTRY MIX FOR BASIN AND VALLEYS ON WEDNESDAY
SYNOPSIS
THE INLAND NORTHWEST RETURNS TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH A WINTRY MIX. THAT WILL INCLUDE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN. THIS RISK
CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY MORNING, BEFORE WARMER AIR TRANSITIONS
THE REGION TO MAINLY LOWLAND RAIN AND HIGHER MOUNTAIN SNOW
CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS, SKIES WILL
SEE STRATUS OVER THE AREA TRANSITION TO OVERCAST SKIES AS A
SYSTEM MOVES IN TONIGHT. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS WASHINGTON AND IDAHO, USHERING IN
MOISTENING AND WARMING AIR. PWATS WITH THESE SHORTWAVES WILL
RISE TO 100-130 PERCENT OF NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY, DROP BRIEFLY ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING, AND THEN SURGE TO 150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL
BY THURSDAY. THIS INFLUX OF WARM AIR OVER TOP OF THE COLD AIR
CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. BY
FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE WARMED ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWLAND RAIN.
THE MOST IMPACTFUL PART OF THIS MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS A 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE BASIN AND
SPOKANE/COEUR D'ALENE AREAS TOMORROW AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS TO THE
MORNING COMMUTE. PEOPLE SHOULD BE PREPARED TO GIVE THEMSELVES
MORE TIME TO GET TO THEIR DESTINATION BOTH MORNINGS. THERE WILL
BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THIS WINTRY MIX BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE MOVES IN
THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY EVENING, AS WARMER AIR CONTINUES MOVING
IN, SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE ENOUGH TO BRING MOSTLY RAIN TO THE
LOWLANDS AND SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. WHILE PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT, THIS
IS THE FIRST TIME IN A COUPLE WEEKS THAT THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
CHANCE AT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A WIDESPREAD 20
PERCENT CHANCE AT SEEING A WETTING RAIN (0.10 INCHES) THROUGH
FRIDAY. FOR SNOW, STEVENS PASS HAS AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SEEING FOUR INCHES OR MORE, AND LOOKOUT PASS HAS A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF TWO INCHES OR MORE.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: BY SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
WARMED INTO THE MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. CLUSTERS
OVERWHELMINGLY SHOW HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES IN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DESPITE THE INFLUX OF WARM AND
MOIST AIR KEEPING PWATS ABOVE 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL, ONLY SHORT
PERIODS OF LIGHT LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. IN LINE WITH THE
CLUSTERS, THE CPC'S 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS INDICATE
INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. /AS
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES IN. THIS WILL COME WITH
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST, STARTING
NEAR EAT/MWH TOWARD THE EARLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN TOWARD
GEG/SFF/COE/PUW/LWS TOWARD 11 TO 14Z, CONTINUING THROUGH
18Z-21Z. THIS PRECIP WILL COME WITH CIGS/VIS LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR, WITH POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TOWARD VFR AGAIN BRIEFLY IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN IN THE MIDDLE TO
LATE EVENING. PRECIPITATION-TYPE REMAINS THE CHALLENGING PART OF
THE FORECAST. EAT IS EXPECTED TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
HOWEVER FURTHER EAST MILDER AIR ALOFT WILL BRING POSSIBLE SNOW
AND FREEZING RAIN. HREF SHOWS ABOUT AT 20-40% CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN NEAR MWH TO PUW, ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. BUT THEN SNOW
BECOME MORE DOMINANT NEAR PUW, POSSIBLY ENDING WITH A MIX OF
GENERAL RAIN. AROUND A 10-20% CHANCE IS FOUND TOWARD GEG/SFF,
THE BEST CHANCE NEAR THE START OF THE PRECIPITATION (12-14Z);
BUT SNOW SEEMS MORE LIKELY THERE. LWS IS MORE APT TO SEE MOSTLY
RAIN. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 0.2 TO 0.5
INCHES, BUT IF THE WAVE HITS ANY POCKETS OF INSTABILITY IT COULD
DROP A QUICK 1-2 INCHES AS IT PASSES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 10Z, THEN A MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DECLINE TO MVFR/IFR CONDITONS TOWARD
12Z-15Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR A BRIEF
TIME IN THE AFTERNOON. AS FOR PRECIPITATION-TYPE: HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AT EAT. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW
AT GEG/SFF/COE/PUW. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING RAIN AT GEG/SFF.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING RAIN AT MWH/PUW. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AT LWS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 28 37 30 40 35 42 / 20 50 30 70 50 60
COEUR D'ALENE 28 36 31 40 36 43 / 10 60 30 70 50 70
PULLMAN 31 39 33 40 36 44 / 20 60 20 50 40 40
LEWISTON 33 44 35 45 39 49 / 20 50 10 30 20 20
COLVILLE 26 36 28 37 33 39 / 10 40 40 90 60 80
SANDPOINT 28 34 30 37 35 40 / 0 60 40 90 70 90
KELLOGG 32 36 34 40 38 43 / 10 80 50 80 60 80
MOSES LAKE 27 39 30 41 34 42 / 20 20 30 60 40 30
WENATCHEE 29 38 32 39 36 40 / 20 30 50 70 50 40
OMAK 29 37 32 39 36 40 / 10 10 30 50 40 50
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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