467
FXUS66 KOTX 280859
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1259 AM PST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCOMING SYSTEM WILL BRING MILDER AND WETTER PATTERN STARTING
WEDNESDAY
- MOUNTAIN PASS SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
- WINTRY MIX FOR BASIN AND VALLEYS ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
SYNOPSIS
THE INLAND NORTHWEST RETURNS TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH A WINTRY MIX. THAT WILL INCLUDE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN. THIS RISK
CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY MORNING, BEFORE WARMER AIR TRANSITIONS
THE REGION TO MAINLY LOWLAND RAIN AND HIGHER MOUNTAIN SNOW
CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MIGRATING
ACROSS THE INLAND NW OVER THIS PERIOD, BRINGING PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION WITH EVOLVING WEATHER TYPES. TODAY A STRETCHING
BUT MODEST SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND EXITING OUT THROUGH IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION, LARGELY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW AND LOCALIZED FREEZING RAIN FROM AROUND 12-20Z
(4 AM TO 12 PM) OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA, THOUGH THE BACK
EDGE IS EXPECTED TO START INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF WA BETWEEN
15-18Z. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST BETWEEN 0.2 TO 0.6 INCHES,
LOCALLY UP TO 1.5 INCHES AROUND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS, HIGHER
PALOUSE INTO THE CENTRAL ID PANHANDLE. BECAUSE IS SYNCS UP WITH
THE MORNING COMMUTE AND BECAUSE SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
ARE IN THE FORECAST TOO, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE BEING
ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF WA AND THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL ID PANHANDLE, LARGELY FOR THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR FREEZING RAIN LOOK TO BE OVER SOUTHEASTERN WA AND PERHAPS
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL WA, BUT ICE AMOUNTS IF ANY ARE EXPECTED TO
LARGELY BE BETWEEN TRACE TO 0.01 INCHES. POTENTIAL THINGS THAT
COULD CAUSE THE FORECAST TO BUST IS IF IT ALL MOVES QUICKER THAN
FORECAST AND NOT MUCH MAY ACCUMULATE. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT OF SNOW, WHICH COULD
MAKE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. OTHER SYSTEMS THIS SEASON HAVE HAD
SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT AND SLOWED DOWN, BUT THIS PARTICULAR
SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE NEAR THE LAPSE RATES AS PREVIOUS ONES AT
AROUND 6.5-7.5 C/KM. MEANWHILE THE MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL SEE SOME
SNOW IMPACTS TOO, WITH AROUND 2-3 INCHES AT STEVENS AND MAYBE
1-2 INCHES AT LOOKOUT.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY THE NEXT WAVE SYSTEM STARTS
TO MOVE IN. THIS WILL BRING PASSING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. LOOK FOR SNOW NEAR THE CASCADE CREST WITH
ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES, WHILE OTHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SPREAD
EAST THIS EVENING AND THEN REALLY START TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
OVER CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST WA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX, WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN CHANCES MIXED
IN NEAR THE CASCADE VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
COLUMBIA BASIN. ICE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, IF ANY.
THEN HEADING INTO THE DAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOME WETTER AND
MILDER WAVES MOVE IN, INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO LIKELY
ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA. A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND LOCALIZED
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
THAT FREEZING RAIN THREAT BEING NEAR THE CASCADE VALLEYS AND
WESTERN TO NORTH-CENTRAL COLUMBIA BASIN. HOWEVER HEADING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY IT WILL BE MAINLY VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH
MOUNTAIN SNOW, WITH EVEN THE PASSES SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN MIXED IN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30S TO MID-40S
THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN LARGELY 40S FRIDAY SAVE FOR SOME 30S IN
THE SHELTERED CASCADE AND NORTH VALLEYS.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS IN BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE PUSHES IN BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, THEN MORE DRYING TUESDAY. MODELS STILL DIVERGE OF THE
DETAILS OF ITS EVOLUTION, WITH SOME DEEPER WITH THE WAVE THAN
OTHERS. EITHER WAY SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETREAT IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON, THEN AN GRADUAL
EXPANSION BACK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE LOWLAND RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S, TO LOW 50S OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CWA. /SOLVEIG
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES IN. THIS WILL COME WITH
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST, STARTING
NEAR EAT/MWH TOWARD THE EARLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN TOWARD
GEG/SFF/COE/PUW/LWS TOWARD 11 TO 14Z, CONTINUING THROUGH
18Z-21Z. THIS PRECIP WILL COME WITH CIGS/VIS LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR, WITH POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TOWARD VFR AGAIN BRIEFLY IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN IN THE MIDDLE TO
LATE EVENING. PRECIPITATION-TYPE REMAINS THE CHALLENGING PART OF
THE FORECAST. EAT IS EXPECTED TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
HOWEVER FURTHER EAST MILDER AIR ALOFT WILL BRING POSSIBLE SNOW
AND FREEZING RAIN. HREF SHOWS ABOUT AT 20-40% CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN NEAR MWH TO PUW, ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. BUT THEN SNOW
BECOME MORE DOMINANT NEAR PUW, POSSIBLY ENDING WITH A MIX OF
GENERAL RAIN. AROUND A 10-20% CHANCE IS FOUND TOWARD GEG/SFF,
THE BEST CHANCE NEAR THE START OF THE PRECIPITATION (12-14Z);
BUT SNOW SEEMS MORE LIKELY THERE. LWS IS MORE APT TO SEE MOSTLY
RAIN. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 0.2 TO 0.5
INCHES, BUT IF THE WAVE HITS ANY POCKETS OF INSTABILITY IT COULD
DROP A QUICK 1-2 INCHES AS IT PASSES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 10Z, THEN A MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DECLINE TO MVFR/IFR CONDITONS TOWARD
12Z-15Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR A BRIEF
TIME IN THE AFTERNOON. AS FOR PRECIPITATION-TYPE: HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AT EAT. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW
AT GEG/SFF/COE/PUW. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING RAIN AT GEG/SFF.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING RAIN AT MWH/PUW. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AT LWS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 36 31 39 34 44 33 / 60 30 70 40 60 20
COEUR D'ALENE 37 31 39 36 44 35 / 70 30 70 40 70 30
PULLMAN 39 32 40 36 45 36 / 70 20 40 30 40 20
LEWISTON 44 35 45 38 49 38 / 60 10 20 10 20 10
COLVILLE 37 28 37 32 40 33 / 30 30 90 60 90 20
SANDPOINT 35 31 37 35 40 35 / 60 40 90 60 90 50
KELLOGG 36 33 40 38 44 38 / 80 50 70 50 70 50
MOSES LAKE 39 30 40 33 43 32 / 30 30 60 40 30 10
WENATCHEE 39 33 40 32 42 35 / 20 50 70 50 50 10
OMAK 38 32 39 33 40 33 / 10 20 50 40 50 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 10 AM
PST THURSDAY FOR LOWER GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-SPOKANE AREA-WASHINGTON PALOUSE.
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 10 AM
PST THURSDAY FOR COEUR D'ALENE AREA-IDAHO PALOUSE-
NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON
PST THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS.
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