320
FXUS66 KOTX 281956
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1156 AM PST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILDER AND WETTER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK
- WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE FOR UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN, WATERVILLE
PLATEAU THURSDAY MORNING
SYNOPSIS
A MILDER AND WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH PERIODS
OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. A WINTRY MIX WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SNOW LEVELS CLIMB
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
UPDATE (AT 1200 PM): WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS WILL EXPIRE AT NOON
ON SCHEDULE. PRECIPITATION IS VERY LIGHT AND ROAD TEMPERATURES
WARMING ABOVE FREEZING RESULTING IN MAINLY JUST WET ROADS.
UPDATE (AT 1000 AM): THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH
IDAHO PANHANDLE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH NOON TODAY AS RADAR
TRENDS SHOW A FEW MORE HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW LEFT TO GO.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MIGRATING
ACROSS THE INLAND NW OVER THIS PERIOD, BRINGING PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION WITH EVOLVING WEATHER TYPES. TODAY A STRETCHING
BUT MODEST SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND EXITING OUT THROUGH IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION, LARGELY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW AND LOCALIZED FREEZING RAIN FROM AROUND 12-20Z
(4 AM TO 12 PM) OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA, THOUGH THE BACK
EDGE IS EXPECTED TO START INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF WA BETWEEN
15-18Z. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST BETWEEN 0.2 TO 0.6 INCHES,
LOCALLY UP TO 1.5 INCHES AROUND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS, HIGHER
PALOUSE INTO THE CENTRAL ID PANHANDLE. BECAUSE IS SYNCS UP WITH
THE MORNING COMMUTE AND BECAUSE SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
ARE IN THE FORECAST TOO, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE BEING
ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF WA AND THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL ID PANHANDLE, LARGELY FOR THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR FREEZING RAIN LOOK TO BE OVER SOUTHEASTERN WA AND PERHAPS
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL WA, BUT ICE AMOUNTS IF ANY ARE EXPECTED TO
LARGELY BE BETWEEN TRACE TO 0.01 INCHES. POTENTIAL THINGS THAT
COULD CAUSE THE FORECAST TO BUST IS IF IT ALL MOVES QUICKER THAN
FORECAST AND NOT MUCH MAY ACCUMULATE. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT OF SNOW, WHICH COULD
MAKE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. OTHER SYSTEMS THIS SEASON HAVE HAD
SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT AND SLOWED DOWN, BUT THIS PARTICULAR
SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE NEAR THE LAPSE RATES AS PREVIOUS ONES AT
AROUND 6.5-7.5 C/KM. MEANWHILE THE MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL SEE SOME
SNOW IMPACTS TOO, WITH AROUND 2-3 INCHES AT STEVENS AND MAYBE
1-2 INCHES AT LOOKOUT.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY THE NEXT WAVE SYSTEM STARTS
TO MOVE IN. THIS WILL BRING PASSING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. LOOK FOR SNOW NEAR THE CASCADE CREST WITH
ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES, WHILE OTHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SPREAD
EAST THIS EVENING AND THEN REALLY START TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
OVER CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST WA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX, WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN CHANCES MIXED
IN NEAR THE CASCADE VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
COLUMBIA BASIN. ICE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, IF ANY.
THEN HEADING INTO THE DAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SOME WETTER AND
MILDER WAVES MOVE IN, INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO LIKELY
ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA. A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND LOCALIZED
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
THAT FREEZING RAIN THREAT BEING NEAR THE CASCADE VALLEYS AND
WESTERN TO NORTH-CENTRAL COLUMBIA BASIN. HOWEVER HEADING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY IT WILL BE MAINLY VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH
MOUNTAIN SNOW, WITH EVEN THE PASSES SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN MIXED IN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30S TO MID-40S
THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN LARGELY 40S FRIDAY SAVE FOR SOME 30S IN
THE SHELTERED CASCADE AND NORTH VALLEYS.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS IN BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE PUSHES IN BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, THEN MORE DRYING TUESDAY. MODELS STILL DIVERGE OF THE
DETAILS OF ITS EVOLUTION, WITH SOME DEEPER WITH THE WAVE THAN
OTHERS. EITHER WAY SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETREAT IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON, THEN AN GRADUAL
EXPANSION BACK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE LOWLAND RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S, TO LOW 50S OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CWA. /SOLVEIG
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: SATELLITE TRENDS AS OF 17Z THIS MORNING SHOWED
CLEARING ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN EXITING WEATHER DISTURBANCE OVER
CENTRAL WASHINGTON INCLUDING KEAT/KMWH, WHILE MAINLY MVFR
STRATUS WAS FOCUSED OVER NE WASHINGTON INTO THE ID PANHANDLE
INCLUDING KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. WITH MOIST UPSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS PERSISTING INTO NE WA/N IDAHO IN THE AFTERNOON THIS
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION BRINGING A 20-40% CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFTER
07Z, INCREASING TO 50-70% AFTER 12Z OVER CENTRAL AND NE
WASHINGTON INTO THE ID PANHANDLE. POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE AROUND KEAT/KMWH WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR 32F WHEN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CEILING FORECAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS MAINLY MVFR STRATUS PERSISTS OVER NE WA/ID
PANHANDLE INCLUDING KGEG/KSFF/KCOE WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR
KEAT/KMWH/KPUW/KLWS. LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE 08Z-15Z FOR KEAT/KMWH. JW
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 36 32 39 34 45 33 / 60 30 70 40 50 20
COEUR D'ALENE 37 32 40 35 45 34 / 70 30 80 40 60 30
PULLMAN 39 33 39 36 46 37 / 70 20 50 20 30 20
LEWISTON 44 35 45 38 50 38 / 60 10 30 10 10 10
COLVILLE 37 30 37 32 41 33 / 30 30 90 50 90 20
SANDPOINT 35 31 37 35 41 35 / 60 40 90 60 80 50
KELLOGG 36 34 40 37 45 39 / 80 50 80 60 70 40
MOSES LAKE 39 32 40 33 43 33 / 30 30 60 30 30 10
WENATCHEE 38 32 40 31 42 35 / 20 50 80 40 40 10
OMAK 38 32 40 32 41 35 / 10 20 60 30 40 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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