145
FXUS66 KOTX 290000
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
400 PM PST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILDER AND WETTER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK
- WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE FOR UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN, WATERVILLE
PLATEAU THURSDAY MORNING
SYNOPSIS
A MILDER AND WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH PERIODS
OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. A WINTRY MIX WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SNOW LEVELS CLIMB
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: AN INCREASINGLY MILD WEATHER PATTERN
WILL OCCUR AS A PERSISTENT TROUGH OUT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
PROVIDES A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE INLAND NW. THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL MID LEVEL WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION, AND INCREASING SNOW LEVELS.
THE FIRST WAVE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION TYPE NORTH OF I-90 AND NEAR THE CASCADES CARRY THE
MOST UNCERTAINTY WITH MODEL WET BULB ZERO PROFILES SUPPORTING
MAINLY SNOW ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND A WINTRY MIX FROM THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU
INTO THE UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN AND WEST PLAINS. YET TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL WITH LOW CONFIDENCE FOR DEGREE OF
IMPACTS WITH THE HREF ONLY SHOWING A 20-30% CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN. BOTTOM LINE IS LOCALLY SLICK CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90. FROM INTERSTATE 90 SOUTHWARD
TEMPERATURES HAVE MODERATED FURTHER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S, WHICH COMBINED WITH THICKENING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE EVENING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST SNOW LEVELS RANGE FROM NEAR 4000
TO 6000 FEET WITH SNOW LIMITED TO THE HIGHER PASSES AND MOUNTAIN
PEAKS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: ENSEMBLES SHOW A STRENGTHENING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. SOMETIMES STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN
EARLY FEBRUARY CAN MEAN STRONGER INVERSIONS WITH MILDER AIR JUST
IN THE MOUNTAINS. BUT GIVEN WE ARE STARTING OUT MILD PRIOR TO
THE RIDGE ARRIVAL IS LIKELY TO BRING MILD CONDITIONS REGIONWIDE
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WHICH IS AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. JW
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: CLEARING BEHIND THE SYSTEM THIS MORNING HAS RESULTED
IN VFR SKIES FOR EVERY TAF SITE BUT COE. CEILINGS WILL STAY THIS
WAY UNTIL THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH, WITH
MODELS AGREEING ON A START TIME OF AROUND 06-09Z. PUW AND LWS
WILL SEE A SLIGHTLY LATER START TIME AT AROUND 12Z AND 18Z,
RESPECTIVELY. CEILINGS WILL DEGRADE DOWN TO MVFR/IFR WITH THIS
INCOMING SYSTEM, AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH 00Z WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MWH AND LWS CLEARING OUT A BIT EARLIER AT 21Z.
OVERALL PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE RAIN, WITH MODELS TRENDING A
BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS, WHICH SUGGESTED A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
BIGGEST UNCERTAINTIES LIE IN THE HREF'S 10-25 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN AT MULTIPLE TAF SITES WITHIN THE BASIN AREA. GEG
AND MWH SEE THESE CHANCES FROM 06-15Z. CHANCES DON'T REACH THE
THRESHOLD FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS BUT SUPPORT A MENTION HERE DUE
TO POTENTIAL IMPACTS. RAIN WILL END BEFORE 00Z TOMORROW FOR ALL
SITES BUT GEG, SFF, AND COE, WHERE IT WILL LINGER INTO THE NEXT
FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS STAYING VFR THROUGH
AROUND 06Z, WHICH IS WHEN THE NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AS RAIN MOVES THROUGH.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE RAIN.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR GEG/MWH FROM 06-15Z,
WHICH HAVE A 10-25 PERCENT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. THE MOST
IMPACTFUL ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS FREEZING RAIN AT THESE AIRPORTS,
RESULTING IN IMPACTS. /AS
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 32 39 34 45 33 45 / 30 70 40 50 20 10
COEUR D'ALENE 32 40 35 45 34 45 / 30 80 40 60 30 10
PULLMAN 33 39 36 46 37 47 / 20 50 20 30 20 10
LEWISTON 35 45 38 50 38 50 / 10 30 10 10 10 0
COLVILLE 30 37 32 41 33 42 / 30 90 50 90 20 10
SANDPOINT 31 37 35 41 35 43 / 40 90 60 80 50 10
KELLOGG 34 40 37 45 39 47 / 50 80 60 70 40 10
MOSES LAKE 32 40 33 43 33 46 / 30 60 30 30 10 0
WENATCHEE 32 40 31 42 35 42 / 50 80 40 40 10 10
OMAK 32 40 32 41 35 42 / 20 60 30 40 10 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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