521
FXUS66 KOTX 290615
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1015 PM PST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILDER AND WETTER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK
- WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE FOR UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN, WATERVILLE
PLATEAU THURSDAY MORNING
SYNOPSIS
A MILDER AND WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH PERIODS
OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. A WINTRY MIX WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SNOW LEVELS CLIMB
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
EVENING UPDATE: POPS WERE UPDATED A LITTLE WHILE BACK, TO
INCREASE THEM ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF WA AND ID FOR THIS
EVENING TO EARLY OVERNIGHT. A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE (AHEAD
OF THE BROADER PRECIPITATION PRODUCER) HAS RESULTED IN AN
INCREASE OVER THE REGION. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CAPTURING IT
WELL, BUT THE LATEST 00Z HREF SEEMS SOMEWHAT BETTER AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT THROUGH THIS EVENING TO EARLY
OVERNIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN A MELTING LAYER AND TEMPERATURES AT
THE SURFACE HAS BEEN HOVERING BETWEEN 30-34. SO THERE HAS BEEN A
MIXED BAG OF RAIN/SNOW/FREEZING RAIN (PROBABLY SOME SLEET). OUR
OFFICE ITSELF HAS GONE BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN VARIOUS
PRECIPITATION TYPES. THE BROADER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE STILL
ON TRACK TO INCREASE OVER THE CASCADES AND EXPAND INTO CENTRAL
WA OVERNIGHT AND THEN MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN THROUGH THURSDAY
AM. THIS TOO WILL CONTAIN A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION,
ESPECIALLY EARLY, INCLUDING SOME POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN OVER
THE WESTERN TO NORTHERN COLUMBIA BASIN AND MAYBE SOME RAIN/SNOW
MIX EARLY ON TOO. /SOLVEIG
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: AN INCREASINGLY MILD WEATHER PATTERN
WILL OCCUR AS A PERSISTENT TROUGH OUT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
PROVIDES A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE INLAND NW. THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL MID LEVEL WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION, AND INCREASING SNOW LEVELS.
THE FIRST WAVE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION TYPE NORTH OF I-90 AND NEAR THE CASCADES CARRY THE
MOST UNCERTAINTY WITH MODEL WET BULB ZERO PROFILES SUPPORTING
MAINLY SNOW ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND A WINTRY MIX FROM THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU
INTO THE UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN AND WEST PLAINS. YET TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL WITH LOW CONFIDENCE FOR DEGREE OF
IMPACTS WITH THE HREF ONLY SHOWING A 20-30% CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN. BOTTOM LINE IS LOCALLY SLICK CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90. FROM INTERSTATE 90 SOUTHWARD
TEMPERATURES HAVE MODERATED FURTHER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S, WHICH COMBINED WITH THICKENING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE EVENING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST SNOW LEVELS RANGE FROM NEAR 4000
TO 6000 FEET WITH SNOW LIMITED TO THE HIGHER PASSES AND MOUNTAIN
PEAKS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: ENSEMBLES SHOW A STRENGTHENING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. SOMETIMES STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN
EARLY FEBRUARY CAN MEAN STRONGER INVERSIONS WITH MILDER AIR JUST
IN THE MOUNTAINS. BUT GIVEN WE ARE STARTING OUT MILD PRIOR TO
THE RIDGE ARRIVAL IS LIKELY TO BRING MILD CONDITIONS REGIONWIDE
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WHICH IS AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. JW
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ONE RELATIVELY SMALL BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT
GEG/SFF/COE/PUW BETWEEN 06 TO 09/10Z, WITH A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW AND MAYBE SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN, BUT THE ICING
RISK IS LOW. LOOK FOR A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IT.
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION EXPANDS OVER CASCADES AND
CENTRAL WA (EAT/MWH) LATER OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AM,
ENVELOPING THE EASTERN TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING TOO. SOME
FREEZING RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER AROUND THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN COLUMBIA BASIN (INCLUDING MWH) AND SOME RAIN/SNOW IS
POSSIBLE NEAR GEG/SFF/COE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE MAINLY RAIN.
EAT COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX. PRIMARILY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. PRECIP WINDS DOWN TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO LATER
AFTERNOON, BUT SOME EXPANDING STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ITS WAKE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT, THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE, WITH LOW TO
MODERATE CONFIDENCE (10-30%) AT MWH AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN
FREEZING RAIN AT GEG/SFF.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 32 39 34 45 33 45 / 30 70 40 50 20 10
COEUR D'ALENE 32 40 35 45 34 45 / 30 80 40 60 30 10
PULLMAN 33 39 36 46 37 47 / 20 50 20 30 20 10
LEWISTON 35 45 38 50 38 50 / 10 30 10 10 10 0
COLVILLE 30 37 32 41 33 42 / 30 90 50 90 20 10
SANDPOINT 31 37 35 41 35 43 / 40 90 60 80 50 10
KELLOGG 34 40 37 45 39 47 / 50 80 60 70 40 10
MOSES LAKE 32 40 33 43 33 46 / 30 60 30 30 10 0
WENATCHEE 32 40 31 42 35 42 / 50 80 40 40 10 10
OMAK 32 40 32 41 35 42 / 20 60 30 40 10 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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