512
FXUS66 KOTX 291150
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
350 AM PST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
- MILDER AND WETTER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK
SYNOPSIS
A MILDER AND WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH PERIODS
OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. A WINTRY MIX WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SNOW LEVELS CLIMB
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
SYSTEMS CROSS THE REGION, WITH PERIODIC PRECIPITATION. THIS
MORNING PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE CASCADES
AND CENTRAL WA, EXPANDING INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF WA AND ID
BETWEEN ABOUT 7 TO 9 AM. THEN AFTER 18Z (10 AM), THE WESTERLY
FLOW WILL TO START TO WANE THE THREAT IN THE LEE OF CASCADES AND
CENTRAL WA. BY 00Z (4PM) THE BACK EDGE IS FORECAST TO BE
PUSHING TOWARD THE WA/ID BORDER AND DECLINING THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. MEANWHILE THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
GOING NEAR THE CASCADES CREST AND THAT WILL BE REVITALIZED HERE
THIS EVENING AND OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST WA AS MORE ORGANIZED
FRONTAL WAVE STARTS IN, WITH THE LEADING WARM FRONT. THEN
THURSDAY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING THAT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF WA AND ID,
ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN PARTS. ADDITIONAL WAVES WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING THROUGHOUT FRIDAY, BEFORE RETREATING
TO THE MOUNTAIN ZONES AND DECLINING FRIDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION TYPE: THIS MORNING THE AIR MASS IS COLD ENOUGH AT
THE SURFACE OVER THE CASCADES AND CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WA TO
NORTH ID FOR A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION. A WARM LAYER ALOFT
WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF COLUMBIA BASIN, WHILE FURTHER WEST AND
NORTH THE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LAYER ARE COOLER. SNOW IS
MORE LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN
ZONES, AS WELL AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AROUND THE CENTRAL ID
PANHANDLE. ABOUT 2 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT STEVENS AND
SHERMAN PASS, AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OVER THE UPPER
METHOW VALLEY. OTHER LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LESS A HALF INCH ARE
POSSIBLE AROUND THE REMAINING CASCADES VALLEYS, WATERVILLE
PLATEAU AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND EVEN PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN COLUMBIA BASIN TO WEST PLAINS. SOME OF THOSE LIGHTER
AMOUNTS WILL BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE MIXED
PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING SOME AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN.
ICE AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT AT A TRACE TO 0.03 INCHES. SOME OF THE
BETTER AREAS THAT HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR THAT FREEZING RAIN ARE
THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU AND MOSES LAKE ZONE.
HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON THE MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BRING
THE AREA MORE LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW, BUT SOME MIX COULD
LINGER NEAR THE CASCADES VALLEYS, WATERVILLE PLATEAU AND THE
NORTHERN VALLEYS. HEADING INTO LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING
THE MIX WILL LINGER NEAR THE CASCADE VALLEYS AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS; SOME LOCALIZED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN COULD ALSO
BE MIXED IN. OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE MORE OF A RAIN AND HIGH
MOUNTAIN SNOW POTENTIAL BY AFTERNOON, WITH EVEN THE PASSES
SEEING SOME RAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, WITH
SOME MID-30S IN THE SHELTERED NORTHERN VALLEYS AND MID TO UPPER
40S IN THE LOWER PALOUSE AND L-C VALLEY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID-20S TO MID-40S, WITH COLDEST READING NEAR THE CASCADES.
FRIDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S, WITH SOME AREAS
NEAR 50 IN THE LOWER PALOUSE AND L-C VALLEY. THE OTHER FEATURE
THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG, THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL
AROUND THE SHELTERED VALLEYS AND NORTHERN BASIN.
SATURDAY TO WEDNESDAY: THE INLAND NW WILL BE IN AN MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. A RIDGE BUILDS IN SATURDAY, BEFORE THE NEXT
WAVE MOVES IN AROUND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH THE OVERALL BEST
CHANCES AROUND THE MOUNTAINS. THIS LOOKS LIKE RAIN AND HIGH
MOUNTAIN SNOW PATTERN STILL, WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL LARGELY BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S, WITH SOME LOWER 50S IN
THE DEEPER COLUMBIA BASIN AND L-C VALLEY. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME PATCH FOG POTENTIAL IN
THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS. /SOLVEIG
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: CHALLENGING FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
AVIATION WITH LOW CONFIDENCE FOR HOUR BY HOUR DETAILS. GREATEST
CONCERN WILL BE ARRIVAL OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL
WA 12-15Z. OBSERVATIONS CURRENTLY AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH
WARMER MIDLEVEL AIR NOSING NORTHWARD SUGGESTING WINTRY MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW FOR MOSES LAKE, EPHRATA, WENATCHEE,
CHELAN, WINTHROP, AND OMAK. THE PRECIPITATION SLOWLY WORKS EAST
INTO COLVILLE AND BONNERS FERRY 15-18Z WITH SPOKANE-CD'A ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES. MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VIS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT ICING AROUND MOSES LAKE, WENATCHEE, AND CHELAN. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS TO WARM AND TRANSITION TO
RAIN FOR THESE LOCATIONS. AREAS OF LIFR TO MVFR STRATUS
IMPACTING SPOKANE-CD'A THIS MORNING WITH SPOTTY DRIZZLE/FLURRIES
BUT MORE CONSISTENT PRECIPITATION ARRIVING NEAR 20Z FURTHER
SATURATING THE AIR MASS THOUGH MODELS SUGGEST LOWER
PROBABILITIES FOR LOW CIGS DUE TO INCR SE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.
PULLMAN AND LEWISTON CARRY THE LOWEST PROBABILITIES FOR
RESTRICTIONS WITH STEADY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SOUTH OF THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION SHIELDS. VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST WHAT CIGS AND
VIS WILL DO AS ONE BAND OF PRECIPITAITON DEPARTS EAST WITH A FEW
HOURS BEFORE THE NEXT SPREADS WEST TO EAST 03-08Z. /SB
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
LOW CONFIDENCE WHEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 2-3 DEGREES
CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOSES LAKE, WENATCHEE, AND CHELAN.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE BY 17Z BUT COULD BE A FEW HOURS SOONER.
ALTERNATE SCENARIO FOR SPOKANE- CD'A IS FOR LESS RAIN TONIGHT
AND MVFR OR VFR SKIES TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HREF PROBABILITIES ARE NEAR 50/50. GIVEN THE
PATTERN, MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT PULLMAN AND
LEWISTON WITH UNCERTAINTY IN ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
WEAKENING WINDS RESULTING IN A LOW THREAT FOR PATCHY FOG.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 40 33 45 33 46 33 / 70 40 40 20 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 40 36 45 35 46 33 / 70 50 50 30 10 0
PULLMAN 42 36 46 37 48 36 / 50 30 20 20 0 0
LEWISTON 46 39 51 37 52 37 / 30 10 10 10 0 0
COLVILLE 37 33 41 33 43 32 / 90 70 80 30 10 0
SANDPOINT 37 36 41 35 42 34 / 90 70 80 50 10 0
KELLOGG 41 38 45 40 47 36 / 80 50 60 50 10 0
MOSES LAKE 42 32 43 32 48 33 / 70 40 20 10 0 0
WENATCHEE 41 32 41 35 42 35 / 80 50 30 10 10 0
OMAK 40 33 40 35 43 35 / 60 50 40 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR CENTRAL
CHELAN COUNTY-MOSES LAKE AREA-WATERVILLE PLATEAU-
WENATCHEE AREA-WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY.
ID...NONE.
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