010
FXUS66 KOTX 300026
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
426 PM PST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER.
- DRY AND QUIET WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
A MILDER AND WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
PERIODS OF LOWLAND RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW. THE FORECAST
TRENDS DRIER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: THE INLAND NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN IN A
MILD AND PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
PERSISTENT TROUGHING IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC KEEPS THE REGION IN A
MILD SOUTHWESTRLY FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE WASHINGTON COAST TONIGHT AND BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INLAND
NORTHWEST HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO FALL PRIMARILY AS RAIN FOR THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE METHOW VALLEY AND THE UPPER NORTHERN
VALLEYS WHERE MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEAL MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE, INTRODUCING SOME IN THE EXACT PRECIPITATION
TYPE. GIVEN MODELS GENERALLY WARM THESE LOCATIONS A LITTLE TOO
QUICKLY, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO INITIALLY
FALL AS FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TRAILING BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER BY THEN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. SNOW LEVELS ARE
FORECASTED TO RISE BETWEEN 5500 AND 6500 FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO
THE NE PACIFIC. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST MAY
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE REGION DRY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WEAKENS. ITS NOT
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE TO 40-60% ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND 30- 50% ACROSS FAR
EASTERN WASHINGTON AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVES INLAND.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
FOR AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN US, THOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT. ENSEMBLES ARE
DEPICTING THIS RIDGE TO BE RATHER STRONG WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
NEARING THE 98TH TO 99TH PERCENTILE WHEN COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS. WITH A
TRUE PUSH OF DRY AIR OR WINDS, THIS SUGGESTS THE RIDGE MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG AS WELL. /VMT
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE, MOVING OUT OF THE AREA WITHIN THE HOUR. THERE WILL BE
A BREAK FROM 00-03Z, WHICH IS WHEN THE NEXT WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH. WITH TEMPERATURES RISING, MODELS
ALL FAVOR RAIN AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE. LINGERING RAIN
AT COE HAS RESULTED IN A PREVAILING -RA BUT MAY NOT LAST
THROUGH 03Z. CEILINGS HAVE CURRENTLY IMPROVED TO VFR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF COE/EAT, BUT WILL DROP BACK DOWN TO MFVR/ISOLATED
IFR WITH THE INCOMING RAIN. HREF/REFS GUIDANCE FAVORS MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT ON 60-80 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN DURING THE
09-15Z PERIOD FOR GEG, SFF, AND COE, RESULTING IN PREVAILING -RA
IN THE TAFS. EAT'S PREVAILING RAIN WILL START EARLIER, AT 03Z
AND LASTING THROUGH 09Z. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN RAINFALL
FOR MWH, PUW, AND LWS, WITH ONLY A 10-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
PERIODICALLY THROUGH 00Z TOMORROW, LEADING TO RAIN BEING
EXCLUSIVELY MENTIONED IN ONLY PROB30 CATEGORIES. THERE IS GOOD
HREF/REFS AGREEMENT ON VISIBILITIES STAYING MOSTLY AT 6SM AND
ABOVE APART FROM A SMALL TIME PERIOD AT MWH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING RAIN. LOW TO
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL AT MWH, PUW, AND LWS WITH LOWER
POPS NOT SUPPORTING PREDOMINANT RAINFALL. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO
FOR THESE SITES COULD BE THE NEED FOR AMENDMENTS PUTTING -RA AS
PREVAILING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING RAIN SHOWERS AT GEG,
SFF, COE, AND EAT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS DEGRADING BACK
DOWN TO MVFR/IFR. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES
STAYING MOSTLY AT 6SM OR HIGHER. /AS
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CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 35 46 33 46 33 46 / 50 50 30 10 0 10
COEUR D'ALENE 36 46 35 46 33 45 / 60 60 40 10 0 10
PULLMAN 38 47 37 49 37 47 / 30 30 20 10 0 10
LEWISTON 40 52 38 54 38 51 / 20 20 10 0 0 0
COLVILLE 34 42 32 43 32 45 / 80 80 30 10 10 20
SANDPOINT 35 42 35 43 34 43 / 80 90 60 10 10 20
KELLOGG 38 46 39 47 37 48 / 60 70 60 10 0 10
MOSES LAKE 34 44 32 48 34 45 / 50 30 10 10 0 10
WENATCHEE 36 42 35 42 36 45 / 70 40 10 10 10 20
OMAK 35 41 33 43 36 44 / 60 40 10 10 0 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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