058
FXUS66 KOTX 302148
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
148 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER.
- DRY AND QUIET WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
A MILDER AND WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
PERIODS OF LOWLAND RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW. THE FORECAST
TRENDS DRIER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: WEATHER WILL REMAIN MILD OVER THE
INLAND NORTHWEST AS TROUGHING IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC KEEPS
THE REGION IN A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ANTICIPATED. A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING INTO THE
PNW THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS A DEEP CLOSED
LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NE PACIFIC. THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST OF THE WARM FRONT PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE CASCADES
ON SATURDAY THOUGH NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO CARRIES
A 15-25% CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WASHINGTON COAST, MODELS SHOW IT
STALLING AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. ITS NOT UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TO
40-60% ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND 30-50% ACROSS FAR EASTERN
WASHINGTON AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVES INLAND. THIS WAVE
LOOKS TO BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AS COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WEAKEN THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSIONS AND INCREASE BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) GIVES THE COLUMBIA
BASIN INTO THE SPOKANE AREA AND PALOUSE A 50- 60% CHANCE OF
WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 25 MPH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY
BRINGS THE LAST SHOT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEK.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT FOR AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
WESTERN US, REACHING 99TH PERCENTILE 500MB HEIGHTS WHEN COMPARED
TO CLIMATOLOGY ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACTLY PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AND WEATHER SYSTEMS OFFSHORE
WHICH WILL PLAY INTO THE ROLE OF ITS EVOLUTION LATER IN THE
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRY AND QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. /VMT
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: A MIX OF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST WITH
REGION UNDER A MOIST, SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS, SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL FOCUS THE
HIGHEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES INTO NE WASHINGTON AND THE ID PANHANDLE WHERE LIFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED. FOR THE SPOKANE/COEUR
D'ALENE AREA INTERMITTENT SHALLOW FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS
MORNING. NOT EXPECTING IT TO STICK AROUND FOR LONG AS A BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN TRACKS WEST TO EAST 20-03Z AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE. THIS LEADS TO MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE MAY
BE A PERIOD OF LLWS AT KGEG/KSFF BETWEEN 04-07Z, BUT WAS NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND SHIFT TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE AT
KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KWMH, AND KEAT OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING RAIN FOR THE TAF
SITES. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR FOR KPUW/KLWS.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT
TIMING. IMPROVEMENTS IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON WILL DEPEND ON
DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE SHIFT IN THE WINDS, SO FOG COULD
LINGER LONGER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY DEPICTED IN THE TAFS FOR
KEAT AND KMWH. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR FOG AND STRATUS
TO RETURN TAF SITES TONIGHT EXCEPT AT KPUW AND KLWS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 33 45 33 46 33 46 / 30 10 0 20 10 20
COEUR D'ALENE 35 46 34 46 35 44 / 50 10 0 20 30 20
PULLMAN 37 49 38 48 36 47 / 20 0 0 20 20 10
LEWISTON 40 54 38 54 38 51 / 20 0 0 10 10 10
COLVILLE 32 41 33 44 33 43 / 20 20 10 40 20 30
SANDPOINT 36 43 35 44 36 41 / 60 20 10 40 40 40
KELLOGG 39 48 38 48 38 44 / 60 10 0 30 50 40
MOSES LAKE 32 47 33 46 33 47 / 10 10 0 10 0 10
WENATCHEE 35 43 36 46 36 46 / 10 20 10 30 10 20
OMAK 33 42 36 43 36 44 / 10 10 10 20 10 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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