781
FXUS66 KOTX 310020
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
420 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER.
- DRY AND QUIET WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
A MILDER AND WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
PERIODS OF LOWLAND RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW. THE FORECAST
TRENDS DRIER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: WEATHER WILL REMAIN MILD OVER THE
INLAND NORTHWEST AS TROUGHING IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC KEEPS
THE REGION IN A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ANTICIPATED. A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING INTO THE
PNW THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS A DEEP CLOSED
LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NE PACIFIC. THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST OF THE WARM FRONT PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE CASCADES
ON SATURDAY THOUGH NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO CARRIES
A 15-25% CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WASHINGTON COAST, MODELS SHOW IT
STALLING AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. ITS NOT UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TO
40-60% ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND 30-50% ACROSS FAR EASTERN
WASHINGTON AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVES INLAND. THIS WAVE
LOOKS TO BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AS COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WEAKEN THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSIONS AND INCREASE BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) GIVES THE COLUMBIA
BASIN INTO THE SPOKANE AREA AND PALOUSE A 50- 60% CHANCE OF
WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 25 MPH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY
BRINGS THE LAST SHOT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEK.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT FOR AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
WESTERN US, REACHING 99TH PERCENTILE 500MB HEIGHTS WHEN COMPARED
TO CLIMATOLOGY ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACTLY PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AND WEATHER SYSTEMS OFFSHORE
WHICH WILL PLAY INTO THE ROLE OF ITS EVOLUTION LATER IN THE
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRY AND QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. /VMT
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE MOIST AND OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ONLY AREA STILL
ENVELOPED IN FOG IS MWH, AND CURRENT TRENDS SHOW LIFR CONDITIONS
WITH FOG THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE, ALL
OTHER TAF SITES HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ASIDE FROM EAT, WHICH IS AT
MVFR. GUIDANCE BECOMES DIVIDED ON WHETHER GEG, SFF, COE, MWH,
AND EAT WILL EXPERIENCE LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND FOG TOMORROW
MORNING. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON CURRENT CONDITIONS
THE BEST, AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO FAVOR
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY, BOUNDARY MOISTURE
STAYS SATURATED AND WINDS LOOK TO DECREASE AND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SO, WENT WITH PERSISTENCE FOR THESE SITES WITH LIFR
AND DECREASING VISIBILITIES. FOR GEG AND SFF, THERE ARE SOME
SIGNALS FOR LLWS FROM 05-10Z, BUT THERE WASN'T ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AS MODELS ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH CURRENT
LLWS CONDITIONS. PUW/LWS WILL START TO SEE DRIER BOUNDARY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, SO GUIDANCE FAVORS THEM
STAYING AT VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GEG, SFF, COE, PUW, AND LWS AREA FROM 00-03Z,
WITH NO OTHER PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED AFTER 03Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING RAIN ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN MWH IMPROVING FROM DENSE
FOG. ALTERNATE SCENARIO WOULD BE DENSE FOG LINGERING AFTER 03Z,
AND THE TAF WOULD NEED TO BE AMENDED. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS AND FOG FORMATION AT GEG, SFF, COE, MWH,
AND EAT TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT LWS AND PUW. LOW CONFIDENCE IN LLWS AT
GEG AND SFF, BUT AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO FOR THIS INCLUDES NEEDING
AN AMENDMENT IN CASE LLWS DEVELOPS. /AS
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CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 33 45 33 46 33 46 / 30 10 0 20 10 20
COEUR D'ALENE 35 46 34 46 35 44 / 50 10 0 20 30 20
PULLMAN 37 49 38 48 36 47 / 20 0 0 20 20 10
LEWISTON 40 54 38 54 38 51 / 20 0 0 10 10 10
COLVILLE 32 41 33 44 33 43 / 20 20 10 40 20 30
SANDPOINT 36 43 35 44 36 41 / 60 20 10 40 40 40
KELLOGG 39 48 38 48 38 44 / 60 10 0 30 50 40
MOSES LAKE 32 47 33 46 33 47 / 10 10 0 10 0 10
WENATCHEE 35 43 36 46 36 46 / 10 20 10 30 10 20
OMAK 33 42 36 43 36 44 / 10 10 10 20 10 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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