167
FXUS66 KOTX 310543
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
943 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER.
- DRY AND QUIET WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
A MILDER AND WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
PERIODS OF LOWLAND RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW. THE FORECAST
TRENDS DRIER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
UPDATE: A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MOSES LAKE
AREA THROUGH 10 AM PST SATURDAY. AREA WEB CAMS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DENSE FOG AROUND THIS AREA, WITH HIGH RES
MODELS SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN VISIBILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT. JW
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: WEATHER WILL REMAIN MILD OVER THE
INLAND NORTHWEST AS TROUGHING IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC KEEPS
THE REGION IN A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ANTICIPATED. A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING INTO THE
PNW THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS A DEEP CLOSED
LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NE PACIFIC. THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST OF THE WARM FRONT PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE CASCADES
ON SATURDAY THOUGH NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO CARRIES
A 15-25% CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WASHINGTON COAST, MODELS SHOW IT
STALLING AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. ITS NOT UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TO
40-60% ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND 30-50% ACROSS FAR EASTERN
WASHINGTON AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVES INLAND. THIS WAVE
LOOKS TO BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AS COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WEAKEN THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSIONS AND INCREASE BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) GIVES THE COLUMBIA
BASIN INTO THE SPOKANE AREA AND PALOUSE A 50- 60% CHANCE OF
WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 25 MPH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY
BRINGS THE LAST SHOT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEK.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT FOR AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
WESTERN US, REACHING 99TH PERCENTILE 500MB HEIGHTS WHEN COMPARED
TO CLIMATOLOGY ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACTLY PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AND WEATHER SYSTEMS OFFSHORE
WHICH WILL PLAY INTO THE ROLE OF ITS EVOLUTION LATER IN THE
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRY AND QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. /VMT
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: AN ABUNDANCE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ON SATELLITE IS
MASKING THE LOWER STRATUS AND FOG MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE PRECISE LOCATIONS AND EXTENT OF FOG/STRATUS THIS
EVENING.
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OVER CENTRAL AND NE WASHINGTON WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE AREAS OF MVFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG. FOG
HAS BEEN MORE PREVALENT AROUND KMWH, AND WITH LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN VISIBILITY AROUND THAT AREA THE TAF
KEPT VISIBILITY AT 1/4SM THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. FOR
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS LOWER LEVEL WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST WITH DROPPING CIGS AND VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO
IFR AND MVFR. FOR KPUW/KLWS CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF WHEN VISIBILITY RISES ABOVE 1/4SM AT
KMWH. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND DEGREE OF DEGRADED VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS AT KGEG/KSFF/KCOE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS AT KPUW/KLWS THROUGH 06Z
SUNDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN LOWERING CIGS AT KEAT OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BUT ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE WITH DEGREE OF
DEGRADATIONS. JW
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 33 45 33 46 33 46 / 30 10 0 20 10 20
COEUR D'ALENE 35 46 34 46 35 44 / 50 10 0 20 30 20
PULLMAN 37 49 38 48 36 47 / 20 0 0 20 20 10
LEWISTON 40 54 38 54 38 51 / 20 0 0 10 10 10
COLVILLE 32 41 33 44 33 43 / 20 20 10 40 20 30
SANDPOINT 36 43 35 44 36 41 / 60 20 10 40 40 40
KELLOGG 39 48 38 48 38 44 / 60 10 0 30 50 40
MOSES LAKE 32 47 33 46 33 47 / 10 10 0 10 0 10
WENATCHEE 35 43 36 46 36 46 / 10 20 10 30 10 20
OMAK 33 42 36 43 36 44 / 10 10 10 20 10 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOSES LAKE AREA THROUGH 10 AM PST
SATURDAY.
ID...NONE.
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